In the NFC, things are no clearer for the bottom four. Obviously the top two seeds are set. It will be Green Bay and San Francisco. After that you have New Orleans likely winning the South. The East is going to come down to the Cowboys and the Giants. The Giants just killed themselves and likely their season with 3 straight losses and now face the Packers at home. Nothing like a must win game against the undefeated defending Superbowl champs (sneak preview... I think the Giants might have the upset in them... just a feeling). The only thing the Giants have going for them is that they play the team they are chasing, the Cowboys, twice in the final 4 weeks. And they only trail by a game. The problem for the Giants is the other three games these two teams won't be playing against one another. While the Cowboys will mop up with also-rans Arizona, Tampa and collapsing Philly, the Giants must face caliber playoff teams in the Packers and Jets, along with a gimme home game against the Redskins. So not only must the Giants beat the Cowboys in both games, and lose no more than one of the remaining games... they must also hope for the Cowboys to spit up all over themselves against weaker teams. The odds are not in the Giants' favor here. The two wildcard spots will likely come out of the North and South. The Falcons are playing well right now and looked poised to grab a wildcard with an 11-5 record. The Bears and Lions will battle it out for the other spot... this wouldn't even be a conversation if Jay Cutler hadn't gotten injured, but that injury does open the door slightly for the Lions to sneak in. They';; have to do it without Ndamukong Suh for 2 games and start out this stretch against the surging Saints in New Orleans. Not a very promising start. Meanwhile the Bears and interception machine Caleb Hanie host the Chiefs. Advantage: Bears. The Bears' schedule is pretty favorable, including facing Green Bay in week 16, when the Packers will have sewn up everything for the playoffs and will be giving players some needed rest. The Lions also get the benefit of facing a very likely resting Green Bay team in week 17, but will also have to deal with the Saints and Oakland. Still, the Lions are the healthier team right now, and I really think the QB situation in Chicago is going to cost them. So in the NFC I'll go with Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans and Dallas as your division winners, and Atlanta and Detroit as your wildcards.
And so, down the stretch they come! You might notice that as we get closer to the end of the season, I'll have less and less to say about games between non-contending teams. I'd really just rather not waste my time or yours. Here are your picks for week 13. As always, home teams are in CAPS.
SEATTLE (+2) over Philadelphia
**** NOTE - I wrote this pick before the game was played last night. And I dare you to prove otherwise. ****
The "Bad Dream Team" Eagles as a road favorite in the toughest stadium in the NFL with Vince Young still at quarterback and Macklin still out? What gives? I'll bet you'd be surprised to learn that these two teams have the same record. Yup... I had to look twice myself. I'll take the Seahawks.
Tennessee (+3) over BUFFALO
At one time this season, the Bills were great at home. That hasn't been the case the last couple of games. Tennessee has much more to play for here... if they really want to serve notice to the Texans that they are coming for them now that they are wounded, they really need to win this game. The Bills played better last week, but there is still something very wrong with this team lately. I'll need to see more of what I saw last week before I think they are out of that funk. Don't think that happens against a motivated Titans team.
CHICAGO (-9) over Kansas City
This game makes me a little nervous. The Bears absolutely must win this game. And nothing is as shaky as a young, turnover prone backup QB thrust into a must win game after a very poor performance. I have a feeling Hanie is going to feel the pressure a bit in this game. The Chiefs do have some talent on defense, and could make this an interesting game. However, they still stink on offense, so I'll take the Bears despite the high point spread.
Oakland (+3) over MIAMI
I know the Dolphins are playing much better currently... but frankly so are the Raiders. And trust me, whether they think Tim Tebow is a viable NFL QB or not, they can hear the footsteps of Denver's defense carrying that team wight up Oakland's backside. Odd to see the Dolphins favored here... I don't think the Raiders slip up in this game.
Denver (+1) over MINNESOTA
Tebow's first game in a dome, and first game against a decent rush defense. On the other hand, Minnesota can't score either and Adrian Peterson is a game-time decision. So once again Tebow will benefit from his team's good defense against a scoring-challenged team... do little to nothing for 57 minutes, and make a couple of good runs and hand the ball off, leading to a mid-range game-winning field goal. After witch I'll spend the next 20 minutes washing my eyeballs out with battery acid and jabbing railroad spikes in my ears so I won't have to hear him praise god for 10 minutes, while forgetting that most of the players on the Vikings probably prayed too... I guess god hates Vikings. Damn pagan heathens.
Indianapolis (+21) over NEW ENGLAND
That's an obscene amount of points to take for a team as flawed as the Patriots are, despite how bad the Colts are. I'd be happy to be wrong here, but I've seen games like this be much closer, score-wise, than you would expect far too often. Pats win easily, but I'm not going to guess by more than 21.
Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH
The Bengals have played both the Steelers and the Ravens close, and now get a chance to take a huge step. Big Ben's hand is still not 100% and I have a feeling about the Bengals in this game. The Steelers damn near lost to the Chiefs last week, and I think they can be had in this game. I still strangely believe in this Bengals team... and if they are going to be taken seriously going forward they have to win this game, don't they? I think so too... I'll take Cincy.
Carolina (+3) over TAMPA BAY
Cam Newton is starting to hear the chatter about Andy Dalton overtaking him in the Rookie of the Year race... you best believe that. I expect one of those big numbers games we haven't seen from him since early in the season and a Panthers win.
NY Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON
Never have I wanted to be more wrong about a pick. It's time for the Jets to do that thing they've patented... you know, suck for most of the regular season, or at very best be mediocre, lose the most critical games of the regular season, but play just enough defense to skate past a weak schedule, and back into the playoffs with a 10-6 record when the Bengals lose the last game of the year to the Ravens. Now excuse me while I chew my own leg off.
Atlanta (pick) over HOUSTON
I just can't take the Texans here with whatever dude they signed off the practice squad playing quarterback against an improving Falcons team. But hey, at least they signed Jake Delhomme this week to rescue them. I can just see every Texans fan who's seen even one Panthers game over the past 5 years screaming madly and running at full speed over a cliff as I write that...
CLEVELAND (+7) over Baltimore
This should be a cake-walk for the Ravens, right? After all, this is the second best team in the NFL according to ESPN.com. And Cleveland is... well... terrible. But, then again... Cleveland is terrible, and frankly the Ravens seem to have a mental block that keeps them from playing well against bad teams. Either that or Baltimore is just highly overrated and shouldn't be considered as one of the top two teams in football...
...ahem....
I'll take the Browns to cover.
NY GIANTS (+7) over Green Bay
Back before Thanksgiving I wrote that I thought the Giants matched up well against Green Bay. They throw the ball as much as anyone, and (usually) get pressure on opposing QBs. Both of these areas exploit the weaknesses of this Packers team: they have a horrible pass defense and virtually no running game to keep the pass rush at bay. I know the Giants have not played well of late, but their season is on the line and more often than not under Tom Coughlin, when their backs are against the wall the Giants answer the bell (remember they almost didn't make the playoffs in '07 and barely snuck in at 10-6, a record that would find them out of the playoffs this year I think). I think the Packers are ready to be beaten, and I think the Giants, at home, match up better than pretty much any other team to do it. The one caveat, much like the Lion's game, will be turnovers. And, oh my, but you have one well documented turnover machine in Eli Manning. The Packers continue to lead a charmed life turning the ball over, which has in no small way helped mask their struggles on defense. But if Eli can avoid tossing the bad picks, I think the Giants can, and will, win this game. If he can't, the Giants' season is probably over.
Dallas (-4.5) over ARIZONA
The Cowboys were lucky to escape with a win last week, as bad Romo resurfaced with a couple of bad picks and overall shaky play, in my opinion. The Cowboys are a very average team, in my opinion... and the Cardinals are feisty at home and have given a couple of teams real problems that I didn't expect. In the end, though, I think the Cowboys have more than enough weapons to win this game by more than 5.
SAN FRANCISCO (-14) over St. Louis
I hesitate taking the Niners here because of the point spread... 14 is a ton of points for a team that doesn't score much to begin with. The Niners win with defense and ball-control. That doesn't lend itself to high-scoring games. That said, I know John Harbaugh was not happy with losing that game to his brother and the Ravens, and I have a feeling he'll have his team fired up at home. I'll take the flier on the Niners to win big against a bad Rams team.
Detroit (+9) over NEW ORLEANS
The Lions face a tough task this week going into the Superdome to fave a Saints team that is hitting its stride at just the right time, and must do so without their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh. That said, the Lions also know that this is a game they could really use to keep pace in the playoff race. With Cutler out in Chicago, they can't afford to let the Bears stay close by losing games themselves. They need to win some of these tougher games, so they will be ready to play. I think the Saints win but I expect the Lions to keep it close.
San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Of course the mid-season finale of House was last week... now what the hell am I supposed to watch on Monday night?
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