 |
| Gronk. Yeah... he's better than your Tight End. |
In general, if you are good, and knowledgeable about football, you will be doing well to pick games correctly at about 52%. Most people have about a 46 - 48% accuracy. If you get anywhere close to 60%, well you're probably just really lucky, but it's so easy to over-estimate your abilities after 6 or 7 weeks of doing really well. You start to feel confident, like you're just that much smarter than the wise-guys in Vegas who do this stuff for a living. The thing you always forget is that the main goal in Vegas is to make money. They have no emotional investment in these games. The lines aren't set necessarily based on how much better they think one team is over the other... they are set based on getting as much money bet on both teams as possible. If too much money is being bet on one team, the line is adjusted. This isn't always easy to remember when picking games, and it's part of the fun and the challenge... it's just not that easy.
Of course, all of that was meant to be a prelude... to set up a reasonable excuse for why my picks sucked so horribly this week. See how I did that? I made some horrible picks, and then I blame it on Vegas and try to convince you of how smart I am just for breaking even. I am so clever... and I'm sure none of you will see through it at all.
Ugh. Ok, let's review the damage...
Falcons (-9.5) 24, Vikings 14
One of just a half-dozen games I actually got right this week, and just barely at that. The Falcons continue to have success running the ball and passing effectively off of play-action. Atlanta goes to Houston next week, and luck out with the Texans down to some dude none of you have ever heard of playing at QB. After that they have the Saints and maybe Panthers as tough games on their schedule... but with 4 losses already they can't afford to lose more than one more to feel comfortable about their playoff chances. The Vikings play tough, but are just lacking in talent on both sides of the ball right now.
Bengals (-7) 23, Browns 20
Like so many other games this week, I picked the right winner but couldn't cover the spread. I also said in my picks column that this could very well be a let-down game for the Bengals, and it very nearly was. Cincy sleep-walked through much of this game, probably due to a bit of an emotional let-down after losing two tough inter-division games in a row and Pittsburgh looming again next week. They managed to wake up just in time to sneak a win out with a last minute field goal. They'll have to wake up in a hurry now with the Steelers next up... they have the depleted Texans, Rams and Cardinals after that before finishing up with the Ravens... they're going to need to sweep the three middle games and must win one of the games against the Steelers and Ravens to have a shot at the playoffs, in my belief. It might come down to a showdown with the Ravens in a "win and you're in" game. Wouldn't that be something? In other news, there was Peyton Hillis sighting in this game... as if I give a shit anymore.
Titans (-3.5) 23, Buccaneers 17
Chris Johnson is apparently alive and well... but even his re-awakening can't save my fantasy season at this point. I curse his lost half season and spit my displeasure in his general direction. PTHEW! The Buccaneers continue their lost season. What the heck has happened to Josh Freeman? I'm sure there's blame to go around, but honestly much of his problems are self-inflicted. His line isn't great, but it's essentially the same line from last year. They actually have a decent running game with Blount... he is just making bad decisions right now and doesn't look anything like the QB from the last season and a half... here's hoping he responds with a bounceback next season, or else he might find himself relegated to the list of rising stars that flamed out quickly, like Kordell Stewart, Derek Anderson and Duante Culpepper.
Panthers (-4) 27, Colts 19
The Panthers are a very average team overall, as their record shows, and honestly did not play very well this week.. yet still the Colts looked just horrible. I still sit in amazement over how little criticism Bill Polian is getting over the completely atrocious state of his team. It's clear that people are giving him a pass because of the loss of Peyton Manning, but still... this bad??? Come on. Can you imagine the ringer the media would have put Bill Belichick through in 2008 when Brady went down had the Patriots looked this bad? It would have been rightfully seen as inexcusable. Yet somehow the Colts front office not only will get a pass, but will then get rewarded with the rights to Andrew Luck (and believe me, the irony of the guy's last name being "Luck" in this case is not lost on me). I'm starting to believe there's something to having that stupid horseshoe on the helmet... Dammit I hate the Colts. And what's worse, I can't even take any pleasure in the Patriots beating the tar out of them this upcoming week because they're so awful. It's just not fair, I tell you.
Cardinals (+3) 23, Rams 20
Boy... ummm... I guess I should say something about this game. Let me see... let me see... OH... did you know that John Skelton attended Fordham? It's a division 1-AA... ooops... I mean NCAA FCS school. Yeah. It's true. Now you know that.
NY JETS (-9.5) 28, Bills 24
This was made into a "must win" game by most media outlets for both teams, but let's be honest here... neither of these teams is making the playoffs. The Bills are pretty much officially dead now. Even if they win out, 10-6 isn't going to cut it. I can't quite put a finger on what exactly led to the very precipitous collapse of the Bills over the past 5 weeks. I mean, yeah, I can SEE what's wrong: the defense that wasn't very good to begin with stopped getting turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick reverted back to the QB that had accuracy and interception problems prior to this year. The running game was no longer as effective. I know all that... what I don't understand is why... or exactly what happened. Then again, I guess I don't get paid enough to look that deeply into it.
As for the Jets, this was a nice win. And Mark Sanchez had a nice game (nothing to write home about... pedestrian numbers against a pretty poor pass defense, but still didn't hurt his team, which is a win for the Sanchize). But come on... they struggled and barely beat a floundering Bills team at home, and the defense was only so-so. I don't believe this team is playoff bound. Tom me the playoffs look like this: Patriots, Ravens, Raiders, and either the Titans or Texans as division winners, with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati as wildcards. Additionally, the Jets have no room for error. They can't lose a single game and have any shot, and their last three games (@ Philly, Giants in a home-away game, and @ an improving Miami) are very losable. I'm not going to get too excited about the Jets winning this game.
Texans (-4.5) 20, Jaguars 13
The Jaguars lost, at home, to a team that started their backup QB, and had to insert their rookie 3rd stringer in the 2nd quarter. As a result Jack Del Rio is now looking for work (he's a great coach, by the way... he can be a coach on my team any day). Blane Gabbert is just horrible, and I'm not sure it's a rookie thing. I just don't think he's a very good NFL QB. Watching him play he looks indecisive and skittish. His throws are not accurate... even when he completes passes his receivers are generally falling down or having to adjust to make catches, so they have no chance to make yards after the catch. He has a decent arm, but almost none of the other skills you want in a franchise QB. I think the Jaguars will be looking for a new QB when they start playing in LA in 2013. (Yes, I read the reports about the sale of the team to Shahid KHAAAAAAAAANNNN... sorry, couldn't resist... and the claims that he plans to keep the team in Jacksonville. And if you believe for a minute this astute and shrewd business man is going to poo-poo the hundreds of millions of dollars that will be lobbed at him to move the team to LA, to stay in Jacksonville, where the fans don't come and the team is losing money, you're too dumb to read this column. So kindly stop reading, get up from your chair and dunk your head in a public toilet).
The Texans showed some real fight in winning this game despite losing their first AND second string quarterbacks. Now let's see how they do against teams that don't suck. The Falcons come to Houston this weekend, followed by a trip to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that can't afford another loss. Mettle will be tested.
Raiders (-4) 25, Bears 20
I really did think the Bears would rally around the "they're done without Cutler" talk, and play well enough to win this game... and in truth they did. But no amount of fine play and heart could have overcome the absolutely horrible first half interceptions by Caleb Hanie. If this Bears team hopes to make any noise in the playoffs, they need a better option than Hanie. And give the Raiders credit. They made the most of their opportunities and are quietly gaining steam in the AFC. Remember that they still don't have McFadden back punishing defenses.. but he will be before long. This team is looking more and more dangerous.
Redskins (+3.5) 23, Seahawks 17
I still maintain that despite his shortcomings, and they are many, this Redskins team is better with Rex Grossman. Rex does have a superb arm, and can make all the throws... if he could ever learn to read defenses and stop making awful throws into coverage, he could be a decent quarterback. Had Shanahan not jumped the gun in pulling Grossman for the awful John Beck, I think this team could be 6-5, right there with the Giants. Heck, Grossman managed to beat the Seahawks at CenturyLink field... something the Ravens (who are the apparently the second best team in football, hilariously proclaims ESPN's Power Rankings) couldn't do.
Patriots (-3.5) 38, Eagles 20
And it was only that close thanks to a garbage time TD in the final minute for the Eagles. This game was over before halftime, despite the Eagles jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first 6 minutes of the game. Every week I find myself asking, what do we know about this Patriots team? And every week I find myself less sure of the answer. The conventional wisdom among NFL pundits is that the Patriots are an average team with a terrible defense, but with a hall of fame QB and Coach. Ok... you can make that case. You can make the case that the defense is terrible. Just look at the stats. Well... ok... I'd respond by asking you to take a closer look at the stats. The two stats that I think mean the most to me are rushing yards allowed and points allowed. Obviously, if you're not allowing points, you are doing something right on defense. And if you aren't giving up rushing yards, it means you are likely playing from ahead and controlling the line of scrimmage. Both traits of very good teams. Well... the Patriots currently rank 11th in points allowed (they'd be 9th if not for the garbage time TD by the Eagles). They are 12th in rushing yards per game. Both of these things despite having a defense loaded with undrafted free-agents and practice squad players. And they are getting better every week. So go ahead and dismiss them, and their defense. They have an offense with versatility and the ability to attack you in any way they want, on the ground, through the air with wideouts or impossible to cover Tight Ends. They might allow a ton of yards, but they play very well inside the 20s and never give in. The Patriots right now are as dangerous a team as they have been in two years, and that's making quite a statement given the limited skill on the defensive side of the ball. Dismiss them at your own peril.
So let's get back to that Power Rankings discussion for a moment. I've said this many, many times, but one of the most frustrating aspects of the mass sports media is its tendency to completely overreact to week-to-week events in the NFL. This week's Power Rankings is a perfect example. After an admittedly strong win over the 49ers on Thanksgiving day, ESPN has ranked the Ravens as the number 2 team in the NFL. This is a complete joke. Let's take the other teams listed, 1-6, leaving aside the Ravens, and evaluate them on total body of work. Those teams are the Packers, Steelers, 49ers, Saints and Patriots. Name me any of those teams that has not just one, but TWO losses to what would be considered bad teams. Go on. The Packers have none, obviously. The Niners worst loss is to Dallas, the Steelers worst loss came at the hands of the Texans, The Saints laid one single egg against the Rams, falling asleep after their historic Sunday Night 62-7 win. The Patriots worst loss came at the hands of the Bills, back when they were both undefeated. One bad loss I could understand... every team has a bad week. But 2 losses to bad teams, looking awful in both, and coming minutes from losing another game at home to another bad team in the Cardinals... I'm sorry... how do you overlook those? This Ravens team is terribly flawed. When they are on top of their game, defensively, they are the best defense in football... but they aren't always on top of their game. And offensively they are so inconsistent that they couldn't score points against the Seahawks. All of this adds up to a team that has the capability to be one of the top 3 or 4 in football, but hasn't shown the consistency to merit it. But as usual, ESPN and other sports media outlets are slaves to the moment. So the Ravens get the benefit of having their current week overblown and their prior weeks undervalued. It's become commonplace. If I were doing the rankings the top 5 would look like this: Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, New England, Baltimore. Go ahead, call me a homer, but Pittsburgh has better wins and more consistent play than Baltimore, despite losing to them twice, and New England doesn't have a single game where they looked as bad as the Ravens did in losses to Seattle and Jacksonville and the win against Arizona. So I rank them higher.
Denver's defense and division III offense (+6) 16, corpse of the Chargers 13
Face it, Denver fans... no team has ever won a superbowl with a quarterback whom the most common commentary boils down to "I don't know how he does it". Because eventually, when you hear that over and over again, he doesn't. Not in the NFL. Remember, Derek Anderson once went 10-6 as a starter for the Cleveland Browns. So go ahead and keep talking yourself into this, and pretend your eyes are deceiving you when you watch him play. Pretend this streak isn't 150% more about the defense and the low level of competition than it is about him. Go ahead... keep walking that plank... you're almost there...
And because it's a weekly tradition, and because every week it gets more and more relevant, it's time for the "how does Norv Turner still have a job in the NFL" bit! You know you can count on it every week... it's comforting and sad at the same time. So come on, folks... say it loud... say it proud... say it like you mean it... yell it out loud... all together now... "HOW THE HELL DOES NORV TURNER STILL HAVE A JOB IN THE NFL???" Yay! Doesn't that feel good?
Steelers (-11) 13, Chiefs 9
If you were one of the three non-KC fans who put money on the Chiefs this week, congratulations. You are truly skilled, and may pick up your millions at the nearest casino window.
NY Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
Hmmmm... let me see... I remember writing some time ago about the Giants needed to take care of business in the weeks before the game against the Patriots, because the schedule was about to get much, much tougher and we'd find out about them then... I know I have it somewhere... let me see... AH... here it is... WAAYYYYY back in week 4 I wrote the following:
I still have my doubts about Eli and this Giants offense, but they are benefiting in a major way from the schedule right now. After this game two of the next three are against weaker opponents (Seattle and Miami, with the feisty Bills sandwiched between) and they'd better take care of business in those games, because after that they must run this gauntlet: @NE, @San Fran, Philly, @NO, GB, @Dallas, Washington, @ Jets, Dallas. Good luck G-men.So of course immediately following that game they go out and lose to the lowly Seahawks. But they come back a couple weeks later and beat the Patriots in Foxborough. And then, just as I said, the schedule caught up to them. Games against San Fran, Philly, and New Orleans have exposed the Giants for what they are: mediocre. They still don't run the ball well enough, and without Bradshaw it's even worse. Eli still throws endzone interceptions (the one last night was a ball he should never have thrown. Ever) and is still terribly inconsistent. Yet still elite... let's not forget that! Just ask him. The defense has not generated consistent pressure and the defensive backfield isn't good enough to cover good recievers when they don't generate that pass rush. And things don't get any easier for the G-Men. Next up is Green Bay (I said in a previous column I actually think the Giants match up well against the Packers... I still believe that, although the game against the Saints leaves me doubting if it will be anywhere near enough). Then they have two games with the Cowboys and one against the Jets. Might be the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Ouch. Playoff hopes are starting to dim in the Big Apple, I'm afraid.
The Saints, meanwhile, look like they got just the wakeup call they needed when the got slapped around by the Rams 4 weeks ago. In truth, a loss like that might actually give them an edge over the Packers at this moment. Losses like that tend to re-focus your team and remind them that every game can be lost, you you'd better bring your best right out of the gate. Say what you want about going undefeated, but if you look at the greatest teams in any season in NFL history, all of them have at least one loss in the regular season. If the Packers lose a game in the coming weeks, I might be willing to give the Saints the edge in the NFC. They look incredibly tough right now.
This week's record: 6-10. Season: 62-54-2
No comments:
Post a Comment