NFL Week 13 picks

We're coming down to the stretch run in the NFL. With 5 games left, the playoff pictures are beginning to come into focus. And while both conferences are starting to sort out the 7 or 8 teams that have any real shot at making the post-season, figuring out who will be seeded where is a muddled mess. The NFL has thrived on parity for years, but I feel like this year more than any there are more seriously flawed teams at the top than ever before. Even Green Bay, defending Superbowl champs and sporting an 11-0 record, is a very flawed team with a fairly porous defense and almost no running game to speak of. In the AFC you can take the top 4 teams and pick them out of a hat at this point. Most pundits seem to favor Baltimore, but the memories of those stinker games in Seattle and Jacksonville still linger in my memory banks. The Patriots seem to be hitting their stride, but have played some weak competition, and with their remaining cupcake schedule we may not really know what that team is made of again until the playoffs actually start. The Steelers can look dominant, but still play inconsistently, as shown in the two losses to the Ravens and the near catastrophe against Kansas City. And the Texans just dragged Jake Delhomme and his 1:2 touchdown to interception ratio back out from under some bayou swamp, so they're pretty much screwed. I think the Raiders have the AFC west locked up (just stop it, Denver fans... it's not happening), and they continue to improve, but still they are a very average team. Assuming one wildcard at least comes out of the AFC North, the last wildcard will be a fight between the Jets, Bengals and Titans.  The Bengals have by far the best team of the three and a one game lead, but by far the toughest schedule, with games against the Steelers, Ravens and Texans still to play. The Titans and Jets schedules are about equally tough... The Jets' season will likely come down to the two game stretch against the Eagles and Giants in back to back games in weeks 15 and 16. The most interesting thing to watch as far as I'm concerned is going to be the AFC South, where Houston has a two game lead, but must now navigate a fairly tough remaining schedule with a very questionable (and I'm being as kind as possible) quarterback situation. That division might come down to the final game of the season in Houston against the Titans. I think Tennessee, who has begun to rediscover their running game, will overtake them. And then it's a question of records for the wildcard. If I had to guess the playoff teams right now, I'd say New England, Baltimore, Oakland and Tennessee as your division winners, and Pittsburgh and Cincinnati as your wildcards. The Jets have no business in these playoffs this year and if they manage to back their way in again I'm going to lose my shit.

In the NFC, things are no clearer for the bottom four. Obviously the top two seeds are set. It will be Green Bay and San Francisco. After that you have New Orleans likely winning the South. The East is going to come down to the Cowboys and the Giants. The Giants just killed themselves and likely their season with 3 straight losses and now face the Packers at home. Nothing like a must win game against the undefeated defending Superbowl champs (sneak preview... I think the Giants might have the upset in them... just a feeling). The only thing the Giants have going for them is that they play the team they are chasing, the Cowboys, twice in the final 4 weeks. And they only trail by a game. The problem for the Giants is the other three games these two teams won't be playing against one another. While the Cowboys will mop up with also-rans Arizona, Tampa and collapsing Philly, the Giants must face caliber playoff teams in the Packers and Jets, along with a gimme home game against the Redskins. So not only must the Giants beat the Cowboys in both games, and lose no more than one of the remaining games... they must also hope for the Cowboys to spit up all over themselves against weaker teams. The odds are not in the Giants' favor here. The two wildcard spots will likely come out of the North and South. The Falcons are playing well right now and looked poised to grab a wildcard with an 11-5 record. The Bears and Lions will battle it out for the other spot... this wouldn't even be a conversation if Jay Cutler hadn't gotten injured, but that injury does open the door slightly for the Lions to sneak in. They';; have to do it without Ndamukong Suh for 2 games and start out this stretch against the surging Saints in New Orleans. Not a very promising start. Meanwhile the Bears and interception machine Caleb Hanie host the Chiefs. Advantage: Bears. The Bears' schedule is pretty favorable, including facing Green Bay in week 16, when the Packers will have sewn up everything for the playoffs and will be giving players some needed rest. The Lions also get the benefit of facing a very likely resting Green Bay team in week 17, but will also have to deal with the Saints and Oakland. Still, the Lions are the healthier team right now, and I really think the QB situation in Chicago is going to cost them. So in the NFC I'll go with Green Bay, San Francisco, New Orleans and Dallas as your division winners, and Atlanta and Detroit as your wildcards.

And so, down the stretch they come! You might notice that as we get closer to the end of the season, I'll have less and less to say about games between non-contending teams. I'd really just rather not waste my time or yours. Here are your picks for week 13. As always, home teams are in CAPS.

SEATTLE (+2) over Philadelphia
**** NOTE - I wrote this pick before the game was played last night. And I dare you to prove otherwise. ****

The "Bad Dream Team" Eagles as a road favorite in the toughest stadium in the NFL with Vince Young still at quarterback and Macklin still out? What gives? I'll bet you'd be surprised to learn that these two teams have the same record. Yup... I had to look twice myself. I'll take the Seahawks.

Tennessee (+3) over BUFFALO
At one time this season, the Bills were great at home. That hasn't been the case the last couple of games. Tennessee has much more to play for here... if they really want to serve notice to the Texans that they are coming for them now that they are wounded, they really need to win this game. The Bills played better last week, but there is still something very wrong with this team lately. I'll need to see more of what I saw last week before I think they are out of that funk. Don't think that happens against a motivated Titans team.

CHICAGO (-9) over Kansas City
This game makes me a little nervous. The Bears absolutely must win this game. And nothing is as shaky as a young, turnover prone backup QB thrust into a must win game after a very poor performance. I have a feeling Hanie is going to feel the pressure a bit in this game. The Chiefs do have some talent on defense, and could make this an interesting game. However, they still stink on offense, so I'll take the Bears despite the high point spread.

Oakland (+3) over MIAMI
I know the Dolphins are playing much better currently... but frankly so are the Raiders. And trust me, whether they think Tim Tebow is a viable NFL QB or not, they can hear the footsteps of Denver's defense carrying that team wight up Oakland's backside. Odd to see the Dolphins favored here... I don't think the Raiders slip up in this game.

Denver (+1) over MINNESOTA
Tebow's first game in a dome, and first game against a decent rush defense. On the other hand, Minnesota can't score either and Adrian Peterson is a game-time decision. So once again Tebow will benefit from his team's good defense against a scoring-challenged team... do little to nothing for 57 minutes, and make a couple of good runs and hand the ball off, leading to a mid-range game-winning field goal. After witch I'll spend the next 20 minutes washing my eyeballs out with battery acid and jabbing railroad spikes in my ears so I won't have to hear him praise god for 10 minutes, while forgetting that most of the players on the Vikings probably prayed too... I guess god hates Vikings. Damn pagan heathens.

Indianapolis (+21) over NEW ENGLAND
That's an obscene amount of points to take for a team as flawed as the Patriots are, despite how bad the Colts are. I'd be happy to be wrong here, but I've seen games like this be much closer, score-wise, than you would expect far too often. Pats win easily, but I'm not going to guess by more than 21.

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH
The Bengals have played both the Steelers and the Ravens close, and now get a chance to take a huge step. Big Ben's hand is still not 100% and I have a feeling about the Bengals in this game. The Steelers damn near lost to the Chiefs last week, and I think they can be had in this game. I still strangely believe in this Bengals team... and if they are going to be taken seriously going forward they have to win this game, don't they? I think so too... I'll take Cincy.

Carolina (+3) over TAMPA BAY
Cam Newton is starting to hear the chatter about Andy Dalton overtaking him in the Rookie of the Year race... you best believe that. I expect one of those big numbers games we haven't seen from him since early in the season and a Panthers win.

NY Jets (-3) over WASHINGTON 
Never have I wanted to be more wrong about a pick. It's time for the Jets to do that thing they've patented... you know, suck for most of the regular season, or at very best be mediocre, lose the most critical games of the regular season, but play just enough defense to skate past a weak schedule,  and back into the playoffs with a 10-6 record when the Bengals lose the last game of the year to the Ravens. Now excuse me while I chew my own leg off.

Atlanta (pick) over HOUSTON
I just can't take the Texans here with whatever dude they signed off the practice squad playing quarterback against an improving Falcons team. But hey, at least they signed Jake Delhomme this week to rescue them. I can just see every Texans fan who's seen even one Panthers game over the past 5 years screaming madly and running at full speed over a cliff as I write that...

CLEVELAND (+7) over Baltimore
This should be a cake-walk for the Ravens, right? After all, this is the second best team in the NFL according to ESPN.com. And Cleveland is... well... terrible. But, then again... Cleveland is terrible, and frankly the Ravens seem to have a mental block that keeps them from playing well against bad teams. Either that or Baltimore is just highly overrated and shouldn't be considered as one of the top two teams in football...

...ahem....

I'll take the Browns to cover.

NY GIANTS (+7) over Green Bay
Back before Thanksgiving I wrote that I thought the Giants matched up well against Green Bay. They throw the ball as much as anyone, and (usually) get pressure on opposing QBs. Both of these areas exploit the weaknesses of this Packers team: they have a horrible pass defense and virtually no running game to keep the pass rush at bay. I know the Giants have not played well of late, but their season is on the line and more often than not under Tom Coughlin, when their backs are against the wall the Giants answer the bell (remember they almost didn't make the playoffs in '07 and barely snuck in at 10-6, a record that would find them out of the playoffs this year I think).  I think the Packers are ready to be beaten, and I think the Giants, at home, match up better than pretty much any other team to do it. The one caveat, much like the Lion's game, will be turnovers. And, oh my, but you have one well documented turnover machine in Eli Manning. The Packers continue to lead a charmed life turning the ball over, which has in no small way helped mask their struggles on defense. But if Eli can avoid tossing the bad picks, I think the Giants can, and will, win this game. If he can't, the Giants' season is probably over.

Dallas (-4.5) over ARIZONA
The Cowboys were lucky to escape with a win last week, as bad Romo resurfaced with a couple of bad picks and overall shaky play, in my opinion. The Cowboys are a very average team, in my opinion... and the Cardinals are feisty at home and have given a couple of teams real problems that I didn't expect. In the end, though, I think the Cowboys have more than enough weapons to win this game by more than 5.

SAN FRANCISCO (-14) over St. Louis
I hesitate taking the Niners here because of the point spread... 14 is a ton of points for a team that doesn't score much to begin with. The Niners win with defense and ball-control. That doesn't lend itself to high-scoring games. That said, I know John Harbaugh was not happy with losing that game to his brother and the Ravens, and I have a feeling he'll have his team fired up at home. I'll take the flier on the Niners to win big against a bad Rams team.

Detroit (+9) over NEW ORLEANS
The Lions face a tough task this week going into the Superdome to fave a Saints team that is hitting its stride at just the right time, and must do so without their best defensive player, Ndamukong Suh. That said, the Lions also know that this is a game they could really use to keep pace in the playoff race. With Cutler out in Chicago, they can't afford to let the Bears stay close by losing games themselves. They need to win some of these tougher games, so they will be ready to play. I think the Saints win but I expect the Lions to keep it close.

San Diego (-3) over JACKSONVILLE
Of course the mid-season finale of House was last week... now what the hell am I supposed to watch on Monday night?

NFL: Week 12 accounting

Gronk. Yeah... he's better than your Tight End. 

I mentioned this a week or two ago, but picking games against the spread is really actually pretty hard. Gambling is such a multi-billion dollar industry precisely because the system is set up for the gambler to lose most of the time. When people complain about the odds being stacked in the house's favor, they should realize that that's not a flaw, it's a feature. The odds are always against you... it's no different with gambling on football games against the spread. This is why I never actually pick games for any real money. I don't get terribly excited about winning $100, but losing $100 really pisses me off. 


In general, if you are good, and knowledgeable about football, you will be doing well to pick games correctly at about 52%. Most people have about a 46 - 48% accuracy. If you get anywhere close to 60%, well you're probably just really lucky, but it's so easy to over-estimate your abilities after 6 or 7 weeks of doing really well. You start to feel confident, like you're just that much smarter than the wise-guys in Vegas who do this stuff for a living. The thing you always forget is that the main goal in Vegas is to make money. They have no emotional investment in these games. The lines aren't set necessarily based on how much better they think one team is over the other... they are set based on getting as much money bet on both teams as possible. If too much money is being bet on one team, the line is adjusted. This isn't always easy to remember when picking games, and it's part of the fun and the challenge... it's just not that easy. 


Of course, all of that was meant to be a prelude... to set up a reasonable excuse for why my picks sucked so horribly this week. See how I did that? I made some horrible picks, and then I blame it on Vegas and try to convince you of how smart I am just for breaking even. I am so clever... and I'm sure none of you will see through it at all. 


Ugh. Ok, let's review the damage...


Falcons (-9.5) 24, Vikings 14
One of just a half-dozen games I actually got right this week, and just barely at that. The Falcons continue to have success running the ball and passing effectively off of play-action. Atlanta goes to Houston next week, and luck out with the Texans down to some dude none of you have ever heard of playing at QB. After that they have the Saints and maybe Panthers as tough games on their schedule... but with 4 losses already they can't afford to lose more than one more to feel comfortable about their playoff chances. The Vikings play tough, but are just lacking in talent on both sides of the ball right now. 


Bengals (-7) 23, Browns 20
Like so many other games this week, I picked the right winner but couldn't cover the spread. I also said in my picks column that this could very well be a let-down game for the Bengals, and it very nearly was. Cincy sleep-walked through much of this game, probably due to a bit of an emotional let-down after losing two tough inter-division games in a row and Pittsburgh looming again next week. They managed to wake up just in time to sneak a win out with a last minute field goal. They'll have to wake up in a hurry now with the Steelers next up... they have the depleted Texans, Rams and Cardinals after that before finishing up with the Ravens... they're going to need to sweep the three middle games and must win one of the games against the Steelers and Ravens to have a shot at the playoffs, in my belief. It might come down to a showdown with the Ravens in a "win and you're in" game. Wouldn't that be something?  In other news, there was Peyton Hillis sighting in this game... as if I give a shit anymore. 


Titans (-3.5) 23, Buccaneers 17
Chris Johnson is apparently alive and well... but even his re-awakening can't save my fantasy season at this point. I curse his lost half season and spit my displeasure in his general direction. PTHEW! The Buccaneers continue their lost season. What the heck has happened to Josh Freeman? I'm sure there's blame to go around, but honestly much of his problems are self-inflicted. His line isn't great, but it's essentially the same line from last year. They actually have a decent running game with Blount... he is just making bad decisions right now and doesn't look anything like the QB from the last season and a half... here's hoping he responds with a bounceback next season, or else he might find himself relegated to the list of rising stars that flamed out quickly, like Kordell Stewart, Derek Anderson and Duante Culpepper.


Panthers (-4) 27, Colts 19
The Panthers are a very average team overall, as their record shows, and honestly did not play very well this week.. yet still the Colts looked just horrible. I still sit in amazement over how little criticism Bill Polian is getting over the completely atrocious state of his team. It's clear that people are giving him a pass because of the loss of Peyton Manning, but still... this bad??? Come on. Can you imagine the ringer the media would have put Bill Belichick through in 2008 when Brady went down had the Patriots looked this bad? It would have been rightfully seen as inexcusable. Yet somehow the Colts front office not only will get a pass, but will then get rewarded with the rights to Andrew Luck (and believe me, the irony of the guy's last name being "Luck" in this case is not lost on me). I'm starting to believe there's something to having that stupid horseshoe on the helmet... Dammit I hate the Colts. And what's worse, I can't even take any pleasure in the Patriots beating the tar out of them this upcoming week because they're so awful. It's just not fair, I tell you. 


Cardinals (+3) 23, Rams 20
Boy... ummm... I guess I should say something about this game. Let me see... let me see... OH... did you know that John Skelton attended Fordham? It's a division 1-AA... ooops... I mean NCAA FCS school. Yeah. It's true. Now you know that.


NY JETS (-9.5) 28, Bills 24
This was made into a "must win" game by most media outlets for both teams, but let's be honest here... neither of these teams is making the playoffs. The Bills are pretty much officially dead now. Even if they win out, 10-6 isn't going to cut it. I can't quite put a finger on what exactly led to the very precipitous collapse of the Bills over the past 5 weeks. I mean, yeah, I can SEE what's wrong: the defense that wasn't very good to begin with stopped getting turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick reverted back to the QB that had accuracy and interception problems prior to this year. The running game was no longer as effective. I know all that... what I don't understand is why... or exactly what happened. Then again, I guess I don't get paid enough to look that deeply into it. 


As for the Jets, this was a nice win. And Mark Sanchez had a nice game (nothing to write home about... pedestrian numbers against a pretty poor pass defense, but still didn't hurt his team, which is a win for the Sanchize). But come on... they struggled and barely beat a floundering Bills team at home, and the defense was only so-so. I don't believe this team is playoff bound. Tom me the playoffs look like this: Patriots, Ravens, Raiders, and either the Titans or Texans as division winners, with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati as wildcards. Additionally, the Jets have no room for error. They can't lose a single game and have any shot, and their last three games (@ Philly, Giants in a home-away game, and @ an improving Miami) are very losable. I'm not going to get too excited about the Jets winning this game. 


Texans (-4.5) 20,  Jaguars 13
The Jaguars lost, at home, to a team that started their backup QB, and had to insert their rookie 3rd stringer in the 2nd quarter. As a result Jack Del Rio is now looking for work (he's a great coach, by the way... he can be a coach on my team any day). Blane Gabbert is just horrible, and I'm not sure it's a rookie thing. I just don't think he's a very good NFL QB. Watching him play he looks indecisive and skittish. His throws are not accurate... even when he completes passes his receivers are generally falling down or having to adjust to make catches, so they have no chance to make yards after the catch. He has a decent arm, but almost none of the other skills you want in a franchise QB. I think the Jaguars will be looking for a new QB when they start playing in LA in 2013. (Yes, I read the reports about the sale of the team to Shahid KHAAAAAAAAANNNN... sorry, couldn't resist... and the claims that he plans to keep the team in Jacksonville. And if you believe for a minute this astute and shrewd business man is going to poo-poo the hundreds of millions of dollars that will be lobbed at him to move the team to LA, to stay in Jacksonville, where the fans don't come and the team is losing money, you're too dumb to read this column. So kindly stop reading, get up from your chair and dunk your head in a public toilet). 


The Texans showed some real fight in winning this game despite losing their first AND second string quarterbacks. Now let's see how they do against teams that don't suck. The Falcons come to Houston this weekend, followed by a trip to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team that can't afford another loss. Mettle will be tested.


Raiders (-4) 25, Bears 20
I really did think the Bears would rally around the "they're done without Cutler" talk, and play well enough to win this game... and in truth they did. But no amount of fine play and heart could have overcome the absolutely horrible first half interceptions by Caleb Hanie. If this Bears team hopes to make any noise in the playoffs, they need a better option than Hanie. And give the Raiders credit. They made the most of their opportunities and are quietly gaining steam in the AFC. Remember that they still don't have McFadden back punishing defenses.. but he will be before long. This team is looking more and more dangerous. 


Redskins (+3.5) 23, Seahawks 17
I still maintain that despite his shortcomings, and they are many, this Redskins team is better with Rex Grossman. Rex does have a superb arm, and can make all the throws... if he could ever learn to read defenses and stop making awful throws into coverage, he could be a decent quarterback. Had Shanahan not jumped the gun in pulling Grossman for the awful John Beck, I think this team could be 6-5, right there with the Giants.  Heck, Grossman managed to beat the Seahawks at CenturyLink field... something the Ravens (who are the apparently the second best team in football, hilariously proclaims ESPN's Power Rankings) couldn't do. 


Patriots (-3.5) 38, Eagles 20
And it was only that close thanks to a garbage time TD in the final minute for the Eagles. This game was over before halftime, despite the Eagles jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first 6 minutes of the game. Every week I find myself asking, what do we know about this Patriots team? And every week I find myself less sure of the answer. The conventional wisdom among NFL pundits is that the Patriots are an average team with a terrible defense, but with a hall of fame QB and Coach. Ok... you can make that case. You can make the case that the defense is terrible. Just look at the stats. Well... ok... I'd respond by asking you to take a closer look at the stats. The two stats that I think mean the most to me are rushing yards allowed and points allowed. Obviously, if you're not allowing points, you are doing something right on defense. And if you aren't giving up rushing yards, it means you are likely playing from ahead and controlling the line of scrimmage. Both traits of very good teams. Well... the Patriots currently rank 11th in points allowed (they'd be 9th if not for the garbage time TD by the Eagles). They are 12th in rushing yards per game. Both of these things despite having a defense loaded with undrafted free-agents and practice squad players. And they are getting better every week. So go ahead and dismiss them, and their defense. They have an offense with versatility and the ability to attack you in any way they want, on the ground, through the air with wideouts or impossible to cover Tight Ends. They might allow a ton of yards, but they play very well inside the 20s and never give in. The Patriots right now are as dangerous a team as they have been in two years, and that's making quite a statement given the limited skill on the defensive side of the ball. Dismiss them at your own peril. 


So let's get back to that Power Rankings discussion for a moment. I've said this many, many times, but one of the most frustrating aspects of the mass sports media is its tendency to completely overreact to week-to-week events in the NFL. This week's Power Rankings is a perfect example. After an admittedly strong win over the 49ers on Thanksgiving day, ESPN has ranked the Ravens as the number 2 team in the NFL. This is a complete joke. Let's take the other teams listed, 1-6, leaving aside the Ravens, and evaluate them on total body of work. Those teams are the Packers, Steelers, 49ers, Saints and Patriots. Name me any of those teams that has not just one, but TWO losses to what would be considered bad teams. Go on. The Packers have none, obviously. The Niners worst loss is to Dallas, the Steelers worst loss came at the hands of the Texans, The Saints laid one single egg against the Rams, falling asleep after their historic Sunday Night 62-7 win. The Patriots worst loss came at the hands of the Bills, back when they were both undefeated. One bad loss I could understand... every team has a bad week. But 2 losses to bad teams, looking awful in both, and coming minutes from losing another game at home to another bad team in the Cardinals... I'm sorry... how do you overlook those? This Ravens team is terribly flawed. When they are on top of their game, defensively, they are the best defense in football... but they aren't always on top of their game. And offensively they are so inconsistent that they couldn't score points against the Seahawks. All of this adds up to a team that has the capability to be one of the top 3 or 4 in football, but hasn't shown the consistency to merit it. But as usual, ESPN and other sports media outlets are slaves to the moment. So the Ravens get the benefit of having their current week overblown and their prior weeks undervalued. It's become commonplace. If I were doing the rankings the top 5 would look like this: Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, New England, Baltimore. Go ahead, call me a homer, but Pittsburgh has better wins and more consistent play than Baltimore, despite losing to them twice, and New England doesn't have a single game where they looked as bad as the Ravens did in losses to Seattle and Jacksonville and the win against Arizona. So I rank them higher. 


Denver's defense and division III offense (+6) 16, corpse of the Chargers 13
Face it, Denver fans... no team has ever won a superbowl with a quarterback whom the most common commentary boils down to "I don't know how he does it". Because eventually, when you hear that over and over again, he doesn't. Not in the NFL. Remember, Derek Anderson once went 10-6 as a starter for the Cleveland Browns. So go ahead and keep talking yourself into this, and pretend your eyes are deceiving you when you watch him play. Pretend this streak isn't 150% more about the defense and the low level of competition than it is about him. Go ahead... keep walking that plank... you're almost there... 


And because it's a weekly tradition, and because every week it gets more and more relevant, it's time for the "how does Norv Turner still have a job in the NFL" bit! You know you can count on it every week... it's comforting and sad at the same time. So come on, folks... say it loud... say it proud... say it like you mean it... yell it out loud... all together now... "HOW THE HELL DOES NORV TURNER STILL HAVE A JOB IN THE NFL???"  Yay! Doesn't that feel good? 


Steelers (-11) 13, Chiefs 9
If you were one of the three non-KC fans who put money on the Chiefs this week, congratulations. You are truly skilled, and may pick up your millions at the nearest casino window. 


NY Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
Hmmmm... let me see... I remember writing some time ago about the Giants needed to take care of business in the weeks before the game against the Patriots, because the schedule was about to get much, much tougher and we'd find out about them then... I know I have it somewhere... let me see... AH... here it is... WAAYYYYY back in week 4 I wrote the following:

 I still have my doubts about Eli and this Giants offense, but they are benefiting in a major way from the schedule right now. After this game two of the next three are against weaker opponents (Seattle and Miami, with the feisty Bills sandwiched between) and they'd better take care of business in those games, because after that they must run this gauntlet: @NE, @San Fran, Philly, @NO, GB, @Dallas, Washington, @ Jets, Dallas. Good luck G-men.

So of course immediately following that game they go out and lose to the lowly Seahawks. But they come back a couple weeks later and beat the Patriots in Foxborough. And then, just as I said, the schedule caught up to them. Games against San Fran, Philly, and New Orleans have exposed the Giants for what they are: mediocre. They still don't run the ball well enough, and without Bradshaw it's even worse. Eli still throws endzone interceptions (the one last night was a ball he should never have thrown. Ever) and is still terribly inconsistent. Yet still elite... let's not forget that! Just ask him. The defense has not generated consistent pressure and the defensive backfield isn't good enough to cover good recievers when they don't generate that pass rush. And things don't get any easier for the G-Men. Next up is Green Bay (I said in a previous column I actually think the Giants match up well against the Packers... I still believe that, although the game against the Saints leaves me doubting if it will be anywhere near enough). Then they have two games with the Cowboys and one against the Jets. Might be the toughest remaining schedule in the league. Ouch. Playoff hopes are starting to dim in the Big Apple, I'm afraid.


The Saints, meanwhile, look like they got just the wakeup call they needed when the got slapped around by the Rams 4 weeks ago. In truth, a loss like that might actually give them an edge over the Packers at this moment. Losses like that tend to re-focus your team and remind them that every game can be lost, you you'd better bring your best right out of the gate. Say what you want about going undefeated, but if you look at the greatest teams in any season in NFL history, all of them have at least one loss in the regular season. If the Packers lose a game in the coming weeks, I might be willing to give the Saints the edge in the NFC. They look incredibly tough right now.


This week's record: 6-10. Season: 62-54-2

NFL Week 12 picks and Turkey Day review

Seriously? Y'all didn't see the spider
on that dude's arm? It was huge!
I might have saved his life!!!

So, let me explain... I didn't really mean to pick the Lions on Thursday. I mean, I was trying to get the column out... you know? It was a little crazy and in the heat of the moment I just flailed out with a pick... it was reaction and I was just typing words, trying to keep my picks balanced... I didn't mean to put myself in a position to have my pick misconstrued. So I apologize to all my fans for letting them down by being misinterpreted. I would never intentionally pick the Lions in a meaningful game against a defending Super Bowl champion.

So... we good, right?

Ok... there, now that I've gotten the obligatory Suh non-pology joke out of the way, I welcome you to my weekly picks column. In addition to giving my usual dose of other-worldly sage picking advice, I'll review the three games from this past Thanksgiving Day. I hope you're all still rendered nearly useless due to an overdose of large game bird and starchy carbohydrates and thus willing to sit on your asses and take the time to read my column. Myself, I decided to let my very sweet but slightly nutty fiancee drag my turkey-stuffed carcass out at 10:00 at night and fight a discount-frenzied mob of agitated, mentally unstable and fairly smelly rednecks at the local Walmart. We thought it would be fun. You know, participate in the "black Friday" craziness, but sort of from a distance. We figured there were just a few items we were looking at, which were probably not that popular, so we could go, get the deals we wanted, observe the chaos from a distance, and get the hell out of there. I won't spend the entire column recounting the experience... suffice to say we learned that there is no such thing as "observing" this madness from a distance. After being swept up in the chaos like sheep in a twister, we managed to escape relatively unscathed, with a cart full of items we neither went there for nor necessarily needed. I still have no idea what happened, and don't exactly recall how we got from the check-out line to the car. It's a blur.

Anyhow... let's review the Thursday games and the picks I made for them. Then I'll spew forth my picks for the remaining week 12 games with all the insight and intelligence you would expect from an overweight computer nerd who's typing an NFL picks column while watching Spongebob out of the other eye. So... ya know... enjoy!

Packers  (-7) 27, Lions 15
For just over a half, I really thought the Lions had this game. I really thought the Lions would keep frustrating the Green Bay offense and maybe force a mistake, would eventually get downfield on the Packers' porous pass defense (say that 5 times fast), and put up some points and actually win the game. For the first 35 minutes or so the Lions seemed to have more or less the right idea playing the Packers, but a few strange things happened that tilted the contest quickly and the Lions never recovered. First, the Lions lost Kevin Smith. This sucked on multiple levels: Smith was getting yards in large chunks early on, and looked like a man possessed... like a person that had been given a second chance and would be damned if he was going to lose it. Also, I had just picked him up to replace Fred Jackson, the only decent producing RB on my fantasy team. Damn my luck. Second, for some reason I still do not understand the Lions decided to play small ball with the Packers. They took short passes and checkdowns... even when it became clear that the Packers were sitting on the routes in the flat and jumping them on the inside, the Lions still went to them time and time again. I'm not sure they attacked the Packers downfield once. Why was this? Is Stafford really that hurt? You have one of the best deep threats in football and one of the worst pass defenses in football, and you don't challenge them? This is completely befuddling to me. Lastly, here's what I said in my last column:

The Packers have been thriving on turnovers, and if they can turn the Lions over 3 or more times, they will probably win the game in a walk... 

Yup. The Packers picked off Stafford three times... two of them just bad throws. This set the Packers up with short fields on two occasions that led to touchdowns. This just has to kill the defense mentally, who had been keeping the Packers high-flying offense at bay until the offense put their backs against the wall... and sooner or later if you put the Packers that close to the endzone, they're going to score. And once that started happening, the Lions' defense began to lose their composure. This is prone to happen on a defense that plays on high energy and bad intentions... frustrations can take over. This ultimately led to Ndamukong Suh losing his freaking mind and essentially killing his team. I don't want to get into a huge dissection of what happened... you all saw it. Bottom line, I don't care whether he was in his right mind or not, a player of Suh's stature and importance needs to be professional enough to understand the situation and realize that playing with an edge is fine, but a complete inability to control oneself in crucial situations displays a selfishness that can not be tolerated. The more Suh demonstrates a lack of self control, the more savvy veterans will goad him into doing something stupid. His actions in the game on Thursday cost his team 4 points, positive momentum, and his much needed presence on the defensive line, and in my view, ultimately cost them the game. This is unacceptable and his coach should make an example of him and sit him a game even if the NFL doesn't suspend him (which they will).

End result: a Packers' win and the continuation of an undefeated season. But what I will say is that the Packers were ripe to be had in this game. If Stafford doesn't throw those first two interceptions, I believe the Lions would have held it together and I think the Packers could have been beaten. They don't run the ball well at all, and eventually the defense is not going to bail them out with interceptions in some game. Despite the win, I'm more convinced than ever that the Packers will lose at some point in the coming weeks.

Cowboys (-9) 20, Dolphins 19
Sometimes, you just know how a game is going to go... you feel it so strongly that you can see it playing out in your mind long before the game is played... I had that feeling last year in the Patriots' playoff loss to the Jets. And I've done it a couple of times this season... and similarly, I hit this one exactly on the head. Here's what I said in my last column:

I like the way the Dolphins are playing with Matt Moore behind center. I think much like the Redskins game, the Cowboys will win with a late score. But the Dolphins cover.

Yeah... pretty much.  Cowboys not as good as most people think, and Dolphins not as bad... saw this coming a mile away.

Ravens (-3) 16, 49ers 6
This one played out about as I expected as well... I figured it would be a hard-nosed, defensive struggle that would come down to who could run the ball better and make fewer mistakes... just turns out I picked the wrong team to meet those criteria. And just as I mentioned in my column, it was the Niners' inability to convert on third down that ultimately doomed them. In this game they went just 2 for 12. That's not going to beat many teams, nevermind good defensive teams like the Ravens. The Ravens didn't exactly turn any heads with their offensive play either, but the Ravens are just a different team at home, especially defensively. I still think they are wildly overrated, and won't do well if they have to go on the road in the payoffs... but for this night, they were the tougher, better team.

Remaining Week 12 Picks (home team in CAPS)


ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
The Falcons are playing better of late, and are home, where they play much better in general... and the Vikings don't match up well defensively. Look for the Falcons to establish the run early, then score on play action later in the game. Adrian Peterson is unlikely to play, making it even less likely that the Vikings can keep pace.

CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland
Given that the Bengals have played back to back close games against their top two rivals, and lost them both, this game could go one of two ways. Either the Bengals spent so much energy and emotion on the past two games that they will have little left in the tank, come out flat, and lay an egg against the Browns, or they will be pissed off for losing two games they could have won, and will be looking to take out some frustrations on the Browns and lay the lumber to them. I'm banking on the latter.

TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
The Bucs played their superbowl last week against the Packers... they put everything they had into the game and still came up well short. I feel like they are going to come out very flat and will struggle to get up for this game. I have no idea what to make of the Titans at this point... they vacillate between looking great and looking terrible... often within the same game. Hasselback looks like he'll be playing this game... Chris Johnson... crap, who the hell knows? He could run for 80 yards on the first play, and then pop a hammie running out of bounds at the 3. Whatever. I think the Titans will win this game by a touchdown at least, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get blown out either.

Carolina (-4) over INDIANAPOLIS
Too much Cam Newton, too much athleticism for the Panthers, not enough of... well... anything for the Colts. Could someone please explain to me how Bill Polian has escaped the scathing criticism he is due for this absolute disaster of a team? Any team that can go from playoff contender to 0-16 with the loss of any player is a total failure in my opinion. And I still have my doubts about how good this team would have been with Manning.

Arizona (+3) over ST LOUIS
I refuse to take the Rams as a favorite at any point in this season against any team that doesn't end in "olts". Home or away. The Cardinals are pretty bad too, but they have shown flashes at times. This is just another one of those "flip a coin" games between two bad teams. Still like the Cardinals just a little better though.

NY JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Both of these teams are 5-5 and falling like a stone in the AFC... neither one has a prayer of catching the Patriots for the AFC East at this point, barring a horrific turn of events in New England. But the Bills are in much, much worse shape at this point. They've lost their top offensive player in Fred Jackson for the season... they've lost their best offensive lineman, their best wide receiver is still hobbling, and their QB has reverted back to the over-throwing, inaccurate backup he was when he first came to the Bills. They've been blown out in three consecutive games and are collapsing like a dying star. The Jets haven't been much better of late... the offense is simply non-existent at times and the defense, as good as it is, spends way too much time on the field. They absolutely need a win to have any prayer of a post-season appearance (which may already be out of reach, frankly... too many good teams, and unfortunately the AFC West gets somebody in by default).

JACKSONVILLE (+4.5) over Houston
Yeah, sorry... there's no way I can convince myself to take Matt Leinart as a road favorite at this point. Look, I know the Texans run the ball more than anyone, but think about it... don't you think that Matt Schaub and a decent corps of wide receivers in any way helps that? Don't you think that the Jags, who have a better-than-you-realize defense, will load the box and make Leinart beat them? I do... and frankly I've never seen anything from Matt Leinart that makes me think he's capable of doing that. And yeah, I know the guy on the other side is the one and only Blane "33rd ranked QB" Gabbert, but I'm counting on a steady diet of MJD, stingy defense, and home field to take the Jags to a win.

Chicago (+4) over OAKLAND
Classic "Us vs. the world" game for the Bears... Everyone has been lamenting the loss of Jay Cutler, and even their backup plan, Kyle Orton, fell through when the Chiefs inexplicably scooped him off the waiver wire. They're being counted out, and I think that will fire them up. The Raiders have been improving under Carson Palmer but they haven't faced a defense like the Bears with him yet. I see them rattling Palmer into a couple of mistakes, and I see the Raiders struggling to move the ball. The Bears will keep it simple on offense and run the ball with Matt Forte, and as we all saw in the Denver game, the Raiders can be run on. I like the Bears to answer the rallying cry and win an emotional game in Oakland.

SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
The Seahawks continue to have the best home field advantage in the NFL, and I expect them to take care of the hapless Redskins and show them that "state" beats "district" every time.

New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Patriots getting very little respect from Vegas... I expected this line to be a few points higher. No Vick, very possibly no Nnamdi Asomugha... one good game against the Giants doesn't negate how bad this team has been more often than not this season. The Pats can't afford to fall asleep against any team this year. They know how important home field advantage is going to be in the playoffs, and they will be playing that way. Philly is a tough place to play, but I think Brady and the Pats can outscore Vince Young and the Eagles without much trouble.

SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver's running game. 
This game is the season for the Chargers. Period. Look, they're probably done already, but the one chance they do have is to catch the Raiders for the division. They have no chance of doing that if they let Tebow and the Broncos run all over them. The line for this game opened at 7... and at 7 I might have been tempted to take the Broncos. At six I'll take the Chargers... I think they put it together for this game, at home, when they absolutely must.

Pittsburgh (-11) over KANSAS CITY
Kansas City's celebrated home-field advantage hasn't really existed in years. See, in order to take advantage of a loud stadium and rabid fans, you generally still need to have talent. The Chiefs have been lacking in that area for a long time now. And with the injuries this year, there's less than ever. Honestly, outside of a defensive turnover I don't see how the Chiefs, who only managed to put up 3 points on the Patriots, can score even a point against the Steelers. We'll see... either way I don't see the Chiefs covering the 11 points.

NY Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
I know the Giants have lost two straight and struggled offensively, but they actually match up well against the Saints, who in many respects are alot like the Patriots. High scoring offense, elite QB, average to below average defense, don't run the ball a whole lot, don't do as well with pressure up the middle. I think the Giants are equipped to handle the Saints, and I expect them to certainly keep it closer than a touchdown.

NFL two-fer! Week 11 accounting and Turkey Day picks

It's Thanksgiving week, which means that anyone who writes about the NFL needs to absorb the events from the prior week and organize thoughts about the coming week in a very short amount of time. Really there's less than a 72 hour window between the last week 11 game and the first week 12 game. Even with the regular Thursday games during the season it's not as difficult as Thanksgiving week, because there are 3 games on Turkey Day. So with that lame excuse now firmly planted in your consciousness, I give you my week 11 picks review, and will throw in my picks for the Thanksgiving day games as well. Consider it my Thanksgiving gift to those of you who bother to take the time to read my columns (as an aside, this morning I reached 1000 views on this blog since I started in back in September... so somebody out there must be reading it... and to that person I say thanks, and sorry about hijacking your browser).  I will post the rest of the week 12 picks on Friday.

As I watched the games unfold last week, I was getting a rather sour feeling in my stomach as I kept thinking "man, I picked THAT one wrong" more times than I care to count. As it turns out, I came out slightly ahead, which is actually pretty decent picking against the spread. Still and all, I feel like I didn't do so well, and some games I was just dead wrong on... way, way off. I'm sure I will find some wonderful excuses why those picks weren't really my fault. I hope you enjoy them.

Broncos (+7) 17, Jets 13
This game said way more about the Jets than the Broncos. The Jets have serious issues on offense, and the decision to change the defensive attack on the last drive was just puzzling, and led to the loss. As I said in my last column, I'm done talking about what's his name, so... that's all I have to say about that.

Browns (+1) 14, Jaguars 10
There's a reason I simply can't get behind Blane Gabbert as a favorite on the road, against any team, and it's hard to put into words... so let me just show you why by pointing you to this play. Enough said. Oh, and for those of you who watched this game and saw just how inept this Jaguars team is, remember that they beat the Ravens... who are still for some reason ranked as a top five team.

Lions (-7) 49, Panthers 35
As I mentioned in my picks column, I was worried that the Lions might be caught looking ahead a bit to their showdown against the Packers Thanksgiving day. And for a while it looked like that might be exactly what was happening. But the Panthers did a wonderful job of smacking the Lions awake in the first half, jumping out to a 10-0 first quarter lead and expanding it to 27-14 by halftime. Predictably, the Lions woke up in the second half while the Panthers obligingly played loose with the football. Cam Newton fell apart completely in the second half, throwing incomplete passes on 3 consecutive third downs and tossing three picks, and the Panthers defense was horrible. The Lions needed this win badly so they could go in to the big game against Green Bay feeling a little more confidence and less tight about needing to win the game just to keep their playoff hopes alive.


Green Bay (-14) 35, Tampa 26
The Packers are 10-0, but the more I watch this team, the more I'm convinced that they won't go undefeated. Tampa really outplayed them for much of this game, and the stats bear that out... the Bucs (not exactly a top tier offense) put up 455 yards on Green Bay and won the time of possession battle. Watching portions of this game, I really wanted to take a look back at the Packers' schedule, because as I was trying to think about it, I couldn't really remember them playing any really good teams. And looking back, they have only played 3 games against teams that currently have winning records. They beat the Saints in an opening night shootout, and the Bears in week 3 before Mike Martz realized he wasn't actually coaching the '99 Rams. Their only other win against a decent team is against the wildly inconsistent Falcons. So looking back at it, the Packers have rolled over a very easy schedule to this point. But they are extremely flawed. This is a very one-dimensional team. Granted, that one dimension is the best passing offense since the '07 Patriots...

*** quick sidebar here... honestly, can we please stop hearing about how Rodgers is playing better than any quarterback, ever? I've heard that several times from multiple sources on ESPN and other media outlets and frankly it's one of the more ridiculous over-statements I've ever heard. Rodgers is playing out of his mind right now, absolutely, but having watched pro football religiously for the better part of 30 years I can name 5 seasons off the top of my head that were head and shoulders above what Rodgers is doing, against better competition, with better stats. Steve Young in '94, Kurt Warner in '99, Peyton Manning AND Duante Culpepper in '04 (yeah, he really did... look it up) and the standard by which any "greatest season by a QB" should be measured, Tom Brady on '07... Rodgers will have to play completely out of his mind over the last 6 games to get close to those seasons, in my opinion. OK... back to the column***

... but the Packers don't run the ball well at all, and their defense is really quite bad. Now, as you know I don't put much stock in the "yards per game allowed" stat for rating a defense, especially for teams like the Packers and Patriots who have elite offenses and get out in front of teams, forcing them to throw the ball all over the yard. But, like the Patriots, the Packers still have a very, very porous defense. The most troubling thing with the Packers defense is how much they have relied on the turnover to bail them out. The Bills' defense did this for weeks, and then when the turnovers stopped coming, what was left was simply a bad defense who has trouble stopping anyone. I think a team with this many flaws is going to stumble at least once down the stretch, and the schedule is much tougher in the final 6 weeks for the Pack, with games against the Giants, Raiders, Bears, and 2 against the Lions including this upcoming game. I think the Packers could lose any of those games, and am certain they will lose one.

Dolphins (pick) 35, Bills 8
I could not have been more wrong on this game. What a complete disaster the Bills have become. I honestly am a little surprised by it. But what I'm most surprised by is how far the offense has fallen. Look, I was honest about this team from the beginning... I thought they were playing over their heads, that they were not as good as their record and would ultimately finish around 9-7... still better than I thought they'd be but nowhere near a real contender. I thought they had real problems on defense and were getting very fortunate living off turnovers. But I really thought their offense was still very good... I thought they had real balance, and talent at all three skill positions. But something has happened since the blowout win against the Redskins in Toronto and it has mostly to do with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who suddenly has reverted back to his pre-2011 form and can't throw the ball accurately. And just as suddenly the Bills can't run the ball anymore. I can't really explain it but the Bills are a mess right now on both sides of the ball, and the schedule won't help them, with 4 of their last 6 games against good teams, 3 on the road. It's been a nice season, Buffalo... enjoy your long term contract with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins, on the other hand, look like a different team behind Matt Moore... but remember, Moore did this with a terrible Panthers team a couple of years ago, so this isn't unfamiliar territory for him. I like them to be competitive the rest of the way with Moore... which is just great for me, because it takes a division rival out of the Luck sweepstakes.

Raiders (-1) 27, Vikings 21
Simply put, I over-estimated the learning curve with Christian Ponder, and once Adrian Peterson got hurt, the Vikings are a much different team on offense. Ponder has played pretty well, considering he's a rookie, but he hasn't really improved since his first start against the Packers... in fact he's gone backwards if anything. Oakland continues to restructure its offensive identity around Carson Palmer and might be a real threat to do something down the stretch, especially if Darren McFadden returns anywhere close to the player he was before getting hurt. I still don't trust Palmer in crucial situations in big games, however.

Cowboys (-8) 27, Redskins 24
The sports media world is a very odd one, I've found... I thought right away that 8 points was way too much to favor Dallas in this game. The Redskins are not a very good team right now and are in a bit of chaos... and the Cowboys almost, and probably should have, lost this game. But even still, the sports-radio talk show airwaves are filling up this week with murmurs of the Cowboys suddenly being a real threat in the NFC. No... nuh-uh... I'm not buying it. After losing 3 of 4 and looking awful in the process the Cowboys have ripped off three straight, but against the lowly Seahawks, crumbling Bills, and terrible Redskins. And they haven't played a real decent defense in that stretch. This is still a 9-7 team in my view.

Ravens (-7) 31, Bengals 24
I get a push here... but I really thought the Bengals could get it done in this spot. You know, he's played so well overall that it's easy to forget that Andy Dalton is still a rookie, and the Ravens defense is filled with veterans like Ed Reed who feast on wide-eyed rookies. And true to form, the Ravens picked Dalton off 3 times, twice deep inside their own territory setting up Baltimore with short fields, on which they scored on the ensuing play on both occasions. That was really the difference in the game, as the Bengals actually had a decent edge in stats in both total yards, and time of possession. This is a game they could have easily won... and the Ravens offense is still really not very good. The Bengals will see the Ravens in the season finale in Cincinnati, and I have a feeling the outcome may be very different the next time.

Seahawks (+1) 24, Rams 7
I had very little to say about this game going in, and about the same to say going out... except to ask the question: how did the Rams get this bad? I didn't see it coming.

49ers (-10) 23, Cardinals 7
The Niners continue to win, but I have to say, they really didn't look great in this game against a much weaker opponent. The defense was great, as it has been all season, but the offense really sputters at times. Alex Smith has done an admirable job this year, and Jim Harbaugh has been masterful at not asking him to do too much, but when the Niners are in third and long, Smith is simply too limited. The Niners are really bad on third down and eventually that's going to bite them, I think.

Falcons (-7) 23, Titans 17
Turner rushes for 100 yards, Ryan has a good game and stays off his back, and the Falcons win. This is the formula for Falcons' success. The fumble deep in Titans territory by Turner was really unacceptable in that spot. You really need to protect the football better than that in that situation. Hasselback gets hurt in this game, but was honestly horrible enough to deserve getting benched even had he not been injured. One time prodigy Jake Locker makes his NFL debut and acquits himself fairly well (do the Titans let him play out the year at this point?), but the most deplorable issue for the Titans is the following: Chris Johnson carried the ball 12 times for 14 yards. And he wasn't even the leading rusher. Hasselback outdid him in one rush, for 17 yards. Chris Johnson should give every penny of this years's salary back to the Titans. What a total disappointment.

Bears (-4) 31, Chargers 20
The Bears were just beginning to round into form it seems when of course Jay Cutler breaks his thumb making a play to save a touchdown. And you know, it was such a weird play... so multi-faceted, so many story-lines on that one play alone... for once it was an interception that was completely not Cutler's fault... his receiver fell down making his cut and the ball just went right into the defender's hand. Cutler, who has had his toughness questioned on multiple occasions, chases the play down and engages blockers trying to get the defender out of bounds and prevent a touchdown, which he does, but breaks his thumb in the process... then Cutler is seen on the sideline pitching a hissy fit, in typical fashion. And lastly, there are the Chargers with a great chance to get within a field goal, set up on the 16 yard line, and Rivers throws yet another killer interception as his nightmare season continues. Just a bizarre sequence. So now Cutler is lost for the regular season at least, and the Bears initially looked to be turning the reigns over to *gulp*... Caleb Hanie, whose career stats look like this: 8 of 14 for 66 yards, an INT, and a QB rating of 39.4 (eat your heart out, Tebow). Yikes. But late word is the Bears will try to make a play for Kyle Orton, who was so bad in Denver he was replaced by the worst throwing quarterback in the NFL. Yeah, Orton played for the Bears years ago, but the only thing that will be familiar to him will be the locker room, as the Mike Martz offense will be completely new to him. In short, I think the Bears are pretty screwed. Is Kurt Warner back bagging groceries? Maybe Martz should give him a call... he can't be more than 45.

Eagles (+5) 17, Giants 10
This is a totally inexcusable loss for the Giants. The Eagles are a below average team, with their star QB hurt, and a defense that has been average at best and can be run on... but the Giants managed only 12 first downs, 2 of which came by way of penalty. They simply could not run the ball at all, gaining only 29 yards on 17 rushes. Truth be told, this game shouldn't have been anywhere near as close as it was. The Giants were dominated and the Eagles had a nearly 2:1 advantage in time of possession. Anytime a team holds the ball for nearly 40 minutes, it's usually not a close game. And in typical fashion, the Legend of Eli Manning is being treated with kid gloves, due to the apparent double-secret media promise to not disparage the great name of Manning in any way, shape or form. While Eli was heaped with undeserved praise for "winning" a game against the Patriots with the help of two Pass Interference calls on horribly thrown balls, he's gotten virtually zero criticism for losing the game this week, due to a fumble caused by complete lack of awareness of the situation. Eli had a first down on the Eagles' 21 yard line in a tie game late in the 4th quarter, and instead of throwing the ball away when he was flushed from the pocket, knowing the heat was coming and knowing that it was first down and not third, Eli gets stupid and starts to half-run to the side, not bothering to look around him, probably looking for a spot in the endzone with blue helmets to chuck it towards... and unsurprisingly he has the ball stripped from his hands by a pursuing defender. This was a needless and stupid play that likely took points off the board for the Giants and led to the ensuing winning score by the Eagles. And as I expected, no-one has so much as whispered a word of criticism. It's really quite unbelievable, this Eli phenomenon... The Giants lost a huge opportunity to take total command of the division in this game, and frankly looked pretty bad in the process. It will be interesting to see how they bounce back next Monday night in a very tough game against the resurgent Saints. The Giants could be looking at a third straight loss and on the outside looking in on the playoff picture.

Patriots (-14.5) 34, Chiefs 3
In addition to a good deal of chatter about the Patriots now being back to maybe the favorite in the AFC (I'm not on that bandwagon yet... I put the Pats on equal footing with the Steelers, and since the Steelers beat them, I have to give them the nod), there was also a great deal of hand-wringing again in the Boston media (I know, I know... you're all shocked and dismayed) about the slow start by the Patriots offense. The Patriots punted on their first 4 possessions and looked very much out of sync (again, they didn't bother using the no-huddle till later in the game... I still don't get this) until they finally made some adjustments and then throttled the Chiefs, as they were supposed to do. So naturally the 'experts' want to know what's wrong. Ummm... isn't it pretty obvious? The guy running the defense on the other sideline (Romeo Crennel) spent the better part of a decade with the Pats, and knows a thing or two about Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's tendencies. So it's not surprising at all that he would come up with some wrinkles that would fluster the Pats hall-of-fame QB and he might struggle. But as they so often do, the Pats began to recognize the strategy and adjusted. As most everyone knows, the way to rattle Brady is to bring pressure up the middle. The Chiefs did this by overloading one side of the line and bringing defenders in lines of three and four up the same spot, while playing press coverage at the line to keep receivers from getting open on the hot routes... blockers can handle the first or second guy, but the third guy too often got through unblocked, and the Patriots, who were playing their base single-back offense, too often had the running back headed out to the flat, leaving no last line of defense. The Patriots ultimately recognized this and also recognized that to get this pressure, the Chiefs were sacrificing the intermediate middle of the field along the seams. So they adjusted by keeping the running backs in to block, and sending their all-world Tight Ends into that intermediate area in the middle of the field. That was exactly how Gronkowski scored his first TD. Then it was completion after completion to Gronkowski and Hernandez until finally the Chiefs had to back off their strategy and back off the pressure up the middle. At which point Brady then had time to carve the Chiefs apart, which he did in the second half. So at the end of the day the game turned out exactly as I had expected it to... Romeo put in some wrinkles, the Pats figured them out and adjusted, and it was lights out. The Pats won a game they were supposed to win, the game was never really in doubt, and the Pats now really have a hold on this conference. With the remaining schedule they should go 12-4 at worst, and 13-3 is a very real possibility. That would likely mean a number one seed, a bye, and a home game. In this season of transition and inconsistency, will I take that? You better believe it.

This week's record: 7-6-1. Season: 56-44-2


THANKSGIVING DAY PICKS (home teams in CAPS)
This Thanksgiving I will be feasting on dogs... underdogs! (see what I did there?)


DETROIT (+7) over Green Bay
I know, I know... everyone is picking the Lions. But honestly, I think the Lions will not only cover this spread, but win the game. As I said above, the Packers are a flawed 10-0 team, and haven't played a very tough schedule. The Lions got a bit of their swagger back last week, and I think they will put up big numbers on the Packers. This may sound cliche, but to me the key will be turnovers. The Packers have been thriving on turnovers, and if they can turn the Lions over 3 or more times, they will probably win the game in a walk... but if the Lions take care of the ball and play their game, I think they can beat this Packers team. Either way, I'm going to enjoy watching it.

Miami (+9) over DALLAS
The Cowboys have won three in a row against pretty light competition. The Dolphins have won three in a row, when everyone thought they were the light competition. I like the way the Dolphins are playing with Matt Moore behind center. I think much like the Redskins game, the Cowboys will win with a late score. But the Dolphins cover.

San Francisco (+3) over BALTIMORE
The Ravens continue to somehow fool everyone, including Vegas. These two teams are very similar... both rely on running the ball and tough, physical defense... both have QBs who struggle at times throwing the ball. If not for the Niners' struggles on third downs, I would pick them in a blowout... I think they are the better team. I will still take the Niners' to win this game in a close one.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

All Tebowed out...

Ohhh... even I'm sick of hearing about me at this point.

OK, so I've officially got Tebow burn-out. Really. I'm sick of talking about the guy... frankly I'm sick of hearing the guy talked about. Never has a less capable, less qualified, less talented NFL quarterback gotten so much undeserved attention. So this is the very last time I will devote more than a single sentence or two to the pious, preachy, pontificating, passing-deficient option QB from Denver. I don't care that he's "humble" (hint... genuinely humble people never have to remind you how humble they are), I don't care that he's got "god" on his side (it's always weird to me how anyone can think that if god exists, he would in any way, shape or form have a rooting interest in the football success of Tim Tebow... if that were the case, wouldn't god have given Tebow even moderate passing ability? Someone needs to explain this to me. And does god hate everyone else Tebow is playing against? And does god really hate Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn? Hell, Quinn played college ball at the feet of "Touchdown Jesus", you think the old man would have a soft spot for him), I don't care about anything except can he play the position of quarterback at an NFL level and lead a team to playoff glory. And I dare anyone to show me the slightest bit of evidence from any part of Tebow's game that he can do that... that he can do anything of note over the course of a season except pull out a few close games with his legs and his moxie. He can not, and has not, put a team on his shoulders from start to finish of a game and carried them to victory. What he has done is relied on his defense and special teams to keep them close, muddle through three and a half horrible quarters of offense, and then hope for a chance to steal a game late. I can't tell you how many Tebow acolytes I had telling me how wrong I was and how Tebow's a "winner" and how I should just admit I was wrong. Hell no. What I wrote last week was the following:

if this Tebow-run-option scheme is actually successful at this level, then everything I thought I knew about football at the pro level is dead wrong.

Then after the game on Thursday I had one of my friends and fantasy football opponents (his team is dead last and completely hopeless, but that's beside the point) post a message pointing out that I had to admit that I know nothing about pro football. It was a clever, if a bit weak, smack-talk tactic, but what it lacked was any actual teeth to indicate that what I said was wrong in any way, shape or form. For anyone who actually watched that game it was painfully obvious that Tebow's read-option offense was not working. Not remotely. It was stuffed repeatedly.  And had the Jets managed to put any semblance of offense together themselves, all we'd be talking about this week is how awful Tebow looked and if the Broncos should really try to continue with this experiment knowing it wasn't sustainable over the long term. But instead Tebow's putrific performance was bailed out by his defense, who stymied the Jets time and time again, and forced another terrible QB, Mark Sanchez, into throwing a horrible pick-six. So, by the middle of the fourth quarter you had the Broncos with less than a hundred yards of offense, 3 points scored by the offense and 8 straight punts. That's bad. Hell, that's bad in pee-wee football. But you also had a Jets team unable to put any points on the board themselves, and in a giving mood with a pick six, so the game was allowed to come down to one series for Tebow with a chance to win it. And, despite all his shortcomings, despite his terrible mechanics and horrible sense of defensive scheme... Tebow does have uncanny athletic ability, moxie, and guile. And he is capable of making one drive, and seems to have a knack for doing so when the game is on the line. I will give him all the props in the world for those qualities. If you give him a chance to beat you with one drive, he very much can. The Jets played every drive but one the same way, with huge success, and then decided to change their approach on the last, game-deciding drive. Who does this? Isn't Rexy supposed to be the defensive genius? Why would you change what's working when it's most critical. The Jets bewilderingly went into a prevent nickle defense against a guy who can't throw the ball. It was just surreal. And sure enough, Tim Tebow pulled off runs (duh) of 15, 9, 7, 3, 3, and 20 yards... the last culminating in a touchdown where the Jets inexplicably had no-one on the edge. Till the day I die I will never understand that defensive sequence. At any rate, it was a great drive by Tebow, the only drive of even moderate success he put together since the opening drive. I've been watching football for a long, long time, and I can tell you without hesitation that that performance will get you crushed 9 times out of 10, unless you possess the Bears '85 defense or the Ravens 2001 defense.

So, how do we honestly evaluate Tebow? Analysts and talk radio hosts have spent the past 4 days drooling all over Tebow... Rich Eisen nearly kissed him on the lips in the post game interview... So what are we to make of it? For me, I'm not wavering one bit. And it's not about some sort of Tebow hate or jealousy or anti-religious sentiment or anything like that... it's simply a fair evaluation of what I see, and the entire scope of the context surrounding it. I have a feeling that most of the analysts and talk show hosts that are on the Tebow bandwagon aren't actually taking in the entire games that Tebow is playing... just the highlight reels that will typically show only, well, the highlights. Evaluating Tebow using just that set of data is foolish. You need to look at the full picture, and in my view, Tebow is a terrible quarterback, but an above average runner with great leadership skills. What this translates into is a guy who can win you a game if the defense keeps it close, but can't put a team on his shoulders, can't bring a team back from large deficits, and can't keep up if the defense lets him down. Let's look at the 5 starts for Tebow. Yes, he's 4-1. That's great.. but that record has WAAAAYYY more to do with the defense of the Broncos and the specific opponents than with Tebow... and frankly the Broncos defense should be getting irritated that Tebow is stealing all their well-deserved thunder. So, looking at the 4 wins... they came against the Dolphins, Chiefs, Jets and Raiders. The Dolphins, Chiefs and Jets all rank near the bottom in total offense. And the Raiders were playing in their first game with a QB who hadn't started an NFL game in over a year, and without their top running back in Darren McFadden, while also being the first team exposed to the new read-option the Broncos employed. They were totally unprepared on defense, and still not ready on offense. The Tebow-lead offense played well against the Raiders, but was mostly awful against the other 3 teams... fortunately for Denver those teams were not very good on offense either, and the Broncos have a very underrated defense. Again, I'll give Tebow full credit for making the plays he needed to, to win those close games, but I still contend that when forced to play a team that can put up points, the Broncos really will have no chance to compete. The read-option is a gimmick and will eventually be defended easily enough. I've used the example of the "wildcat" before, and it is still very apt... the Dolphins unveiled the "wildcat" in a game against the Patriots in 2008. It was the third game of the season and they had lost the first two after going 1-15 the season before. They were desperate to do something different to give them a chance... and the Wildcat was it. They finished 11-5 that year and were a playoff team, riding the Wildcat the whole way. The following season, however, teams began scheming their defenses for the Wildcat and found it easy to stop most times... and without it, the Dolphins went back to being a 7-9 team, and have been in decline ever since, just as the Wildcat has. The point is that gimmicky offenses don't last in the NFL. They've been tried... defenses eventually will take them away and if you are too reliant on it, you will struggle greatly once the gimmick isn't working anymore.

And here's the other factor... like most teams, the Broncos, top to bottom, are not built around this read-option offense. In order to commit to Tim Tebow for beyond the next year, they will need to completely rebuild their offense, replace most of the offensive line, and rethink their skill positions. They will need to build a team designed for the read-option... and then what if it fails, or Tebow gets hurt (likely given the amount of hits he will take)... what then? Every other QB in the NFL is actually a pro style QB (even the mobile ones)... so unless you go and grab another option-style QB in the draft you've crippled your team. So lets say they do take an option QB in the draft for just that reason... if Tim Tebow, the most successful and proficient read-option QB in College Football history, isn't successful, how can you possibly think some other similar styled QB will be? This whole experiment is a joke... a gimmick that only exists because Tebow was over-valued and drafted 4 rounds too high at least. So now the Broncos are stuck. Deep down they know they can't build a team around Tebow long term. But he's been just good enough (and lucky enough) to be close enough in games to pull off a few wins, and so fans in Denver who see this whole thing as some sort of "good vs. evil holy war" with Tebow as the fully armored Saint, will scream bloody murder if they change direction. This was such a bad idea by the Broncos, and I fear they've put themselves into an unwinnable situation. No, I'm not advocating that they pull Tebow now... why would you? The stadium is filling up and there's a buzz around the team. But ultimately you need to go another direction... probably in this upcoming off-season. Even John Elway admitted over the weekend that the Broncos are no closer to having their future starter than they were before Tebow began starting for them. Elway knows you can't sustain this style of offense and expect to compete at the highest level of the NFL.

And if John Elway knows it, then I see no reason to put any more energy into analyzing Tim Tebow as a viable long term starting QB in the NFL. He's not. And I'm done discussing it.

NFL Week 11 Picks

Hey! Somebody tackle him!!! He can still run around
for like five minutes like that!

It's really rare to see so many crappy games in one week this late in the season, but holy hell it seems like every game this upcoming weekend is an absolute pile of stinking mess. There are exactly two games on the schedule pitting two teams with winning records against one another (Bengals / Ravens, and Titans / Falcons), and of those two, really only the Bengals / Ravens game is all that interesting. Oh well, guess you can't have Steelers / Ravens or Giants / Niners or Patriots / Jets every week. I guess this is just the calm before the storm of great games scheduled for thanksgiving weekend, where we'll see Packers / Lions and Niners / Ravens on Thanksgiving Day followed by a weekend of good games including Bills / Jets, Bears / Raiders, Patriots / Eagles and Giants / Saints. Oh, yes... I plan to spend next Thursday through Friday in a football and tryptophan-induced  couch coma. I'm getting excited just thinking about it.

After skipping a week, byes are back... so fewer games on the slate this week. Don't try to understand it... just accept it and move on. So, with that, on to the picks. As always, picks are against the spread (as of Thursday) and hoe teams are in CAPS.

NY Jets (-7) over DENVER
I simply refuse to accept that this gimmicky run-option can succeed in the NFL for long, especially against better defenses like the Jets have. Defensive players in the NFL, ultimately, are too fast and too athletic for this schtick to work for long. Look... it's not as if we haven't seen it tried. The "Wildcat" has been part of several team's standard playset since the Dolphins rolled it out with great success against the Patriots several years back. It worked for two reasons: One, because it was new and teams weren't prepared for it. And two, because it was only used occasionally, and the team running it was still capable of throwing the ball in most situations. Since the first couple of years after the Dolphins "Wildcat" game, it has very much gone back to being a rarely used gimmick. The Jets toyed with it using Brad Smith, but it didn't work often enough and they jettisoned it. Most teams now have defensive packages built in to counter the "Wildcat", and it hasn't enjoyed nearly the success it once did in the last couple of years. As a result, you rarely see it employed. The reason? If teams are prepared for it, it usually doesn't work. Why not, you might ask? Many college teams run it with great success. So why wouldn't it work at the pro level? The answer is really quite simple. In college even the best teams only have 3 or 4 players on defense that are NFL caliber, in terms of size, speed and athleticism. Most don't have more than one, maybe. So you can get away with running this style of offense because generally your skill players are going to be faster and stronger than the defensive players. This is far from the case in the NFL, where every team has defensive players just as fast and athletic as the offensive skill players. NFL teams can play 8 in the box and stop any type of option-run play, regardless of the talent level of the players on the other side. And if this Tebow-run-option scheme is actually successful at this level, then everything I thought I knew about football at the pro level is dead wrong. And I just can't believe that at this point. I fully expect the Jets defense to do exactly what the Lions defense did... challenge the line of scrimmage, swallow the runners whole and make Tebow try to beat you with his arm, which is unlikely.

CLEVELAND (+1) over Jacksonville
As much as I don't like the way the Browns are playing, I simply can't bet on Blane Gabbert as a road favorite. Here's an interesting fact: Gabbert is the 33rd ranked quarterback in the NFL. Yes... you are right... there are only 32 teams in the NFL. So yeah... he's got that going for him.

DETROIT (-7) over Carolina
I have mixed feelings about this game. Detroit needs a win in the worst way, and Cam-olina looks like they've hit a wall. It's a home game for the Lions, against a team they should beat... BUT... there's this little game coming up just 4 days later on Turkey Day against a certain undefeated defending Superbowl champion who also happens to be in the same division... so I'm a little concerned about the Lions not having their minds in the right place, or focused on the right game. Still, I'll take the Lions at home.

Tampa Bay (+14) over GREEN BAY
For more or less the same reasons I gave above in the Lions game. Home game against a lesser opponent just before a big nationally televised game on the road against a division rival with your undefeated record on the line. I don't see the Bucs actually winning this game, but I can totally see the Packers playing a little too complacently and finding the Bucs still within range as the 4th quarter approaches. The Packers close it out, but the Bucs, who still have some talent despite their struggles, keep it closer than 14.

Buffalo (pick) over MIAMI
Who would ever have foreseen this line three weeks ago? Buffalo is definitely reeling, but Miami doesn't have the type of defense the Bills have struggled with. I expect the Bills' offense to re-emerge in this game in a big way. I expect big games from both Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick and I honestly see a Bills romp. At which point the national sports media will typically overreact and spend the next week hyping the Bills up as contenders again unnecessarily. Cause, ya know, that's just what they do.

MINNESOTA (+1) over Oakland
The Vikings got crushed this past week at Green Bay... but hey, that's going to happen to a lot of teams this year. This is a team improving weak to weak I think. Oakland got a great win last week against the Chargers, but I think the Vikings match up a little better. I need to see more than one good game from Carson Palmer to believe what I saw last week is the rule and not the exception. I'll take the Vikings at home.

WASHINGTON (+8) over Dallas
Back in week 3 it was the Cowboys who handed the Redskins their first loss. That game was in Dallas and the Cowboys won with 6 field goals. I still don't see Dallas as that far ahead of where they were then. I think the Cowboys will win this game, as they are the better team, but I don't think they're 8 points better than the Redskins in Washington.

Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue what Vegas is thinking here. Both of these teams are 6-3, but let's take a look at the three losses for the two teams. The Bengals have a road loss to Denver in Andy Dalton's second start as a rookie, and then losses to San Francisco and Pittsburgh, arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the NFL, sandwiched around 5 straight wins. The Ravens meanwhile have an early loss to Tennessee, and then recent losses to Jacksonville and Seattle, arguably 2 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL. At no point in the season have the Bengals ever looked remotely as bad as the Ravens have looked on offense in multiple games, including both losses to the Jaguars and Seahawks, and 3 quarters of a home game they nearly lost to Arizona, another below average team. Yet still the Ravens are ranked in the top 6 in ESPN's power poll and top 5 in SI's power rankings. All based on two wins over Pittsburgh. I simply do not get it. This is an average team with an above average defense. I really don't understand the continued belief in the Ravens as an elite team. Has anyone actually seen those performances in the past 6 weeks? To call them uneven would be to seriously understate it. In contrast, the Bengals have been consistent, steady, and competitive even in defeat. The Bengals have a better defense than people realize. The Ravens will struggle to move the ball consistently, and I think the Bengals will win this game. 


ST. LOUIS (-1) over Seattle
Sure. Why not? I have to pick one of them.

SAN FRANCISCO (-10) over Arizona
The 49ers have finally stopped being treated as the "surprise story" of the season that everybody expects to come down to earth at some point and are now rightfully seen as one of the "big boys". The game against the Giants removed any last lingering doubts some pundits might have been clinging to. I've been saying for years that great teams are built on the lines. It's the reason the Patriots were still a top team in 2006 despite having almost no weapons on offense outside of Tom Brady, and the reason they are still a top team this year despite having parking lot attendants starting in the defensive backfield. (ok, I don't know if that's true, but would you be surprised? You get my point) The one thing the Patriots continually have is strength and depth on the lines. Say what you want about the defense this year, but the line play has been solid. The same is true in San Francisco, where the secret to the Niners' success, in my opinion, is along the offensive and defensive lines. The Niners' lines are playing with attitude and imposing their will on their opponents well enough to keep Alex Smith upright and comfortable and make the running game one of the top in the NFL, while also making it very tough to run on them. That kind of play will mean success for just about any team. Smart teams don't overvalue skill positions while undervaluing players that control the trenches.

ATLANTA (-7) over Tennessee
Despite the tough loss to the Saints after a total dumbass decision by head coach Mike Smith, The Falcons are playing better of late, mainly because they have gotten back to running the ball. Prior to the game against the Saints, in the Falcons' losses they ran the ball on average 17 times a game for 78 yards per game. In their wins they ran an average of 34.5 times a game for 142.4 yards per game. Even in the loss to New Orleans, a game they could easily have won, they ran the ball well, 32 times for 138 yards. More important than the yards gained is the attempts for the Falcons. More than any other team in the NFL the Falcons rely on their running game to set up their play-action passing game. The stats obviously bear that out. Of late they are pounding the rock, and the results are pretty clear. I like them to run right at the Titans about 35 times and beat a very inconsistent Titans team at home by more than a touchdown.

CHICAGO (-4) over San Diego
This line seems a bit low to me. The Bears are playing their best football right now. You saw what the Raiders  defense did to Phillip Rivers... what do you think Brian Urlacher and the Bears are going to do to him? San Diego isn't going to have their patented late season ascent this year, I don't believe. As I mentioned above, line play is key in the NFL, and the Chargers are struggling on both lines right now. Chicago wins this one by double digits.

NY GIANTS (-5) over Philadelphia
I could see a hangover effect for the Giants coming off a tough loss and a cross-country flight, but the Eagles are a bit of a mess right now, with a very disgruntled star receiver and a QB who will be limited by injury... who was frankly already limited by his decision making and poor throwing. If Vick was fully healthy and the Eagles weren't enduring internal turmoil, I might pick them for this game, but as it is I must take the Giants at home here.

NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Kansas City
The Patriots have been horrible this year as double-digit home favorites, from a bettors perspective, so I'm always hesitant to take them as 2 touchdown favorites, but this game has all the makings of a blowout. The Chiefs aren't very good on either side of the ball, and with the combination of inexperienced Tyler Palko and the newly discovered Patriots pass rush I think it's going to be a very long night for KC. This one could be over by midway through the third quarter... and who knows... might we see some playing time for Ryan Mallett? I can only hope the game is that far out of reach by then.