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| Seriously? Y'all didn't see the spider on that dude's arm? It was huge! I might have saved his life!!! |
So... we good, right?
Ok... there, now that I've gotten the obligatory Suh non-pology joke out of the way, I welcome you to my weekly picks column. In addition to giving my usual dose of other-worldly sage picking advice, I'll review the three games from this past Thanksgiving Day. I hope you're all still rendered nearly useless due to an overdose of large game bird and starchy carbohydrates and thus willing to sit on your asses and take the time to read my column. Myself, I decided to let my very sweet but slightly nutty fiancee drag my turkey-stuffed carcass out at 10:00 at night and fight a discount-frenzied mob of agitated, mentally unstable and fairly smelly rednecks at the local Walmart. We thought it would be fun. You know, participate in the "black Friday" craziness, but sort of from a distance. We figured there were just a few items we were looking at, which were probably not that popular, so we could go, get the deals we wanted, observe the chaos from a distance, and get the hell out of there. I won't spend the entire column recounting the experience... suffice to say we learned that there is no such thing as "observing" this madness from a distance. After being swept up in the chaos like sheep in a twister, we managed to escape relatively unscathed, with a cart full of items we neither went there for nor necessarily needed. I still have no idea what happened, and don't exactly recall how we got from the check-out line to the car. It's a blur.
Anyhow... let's review the Thursday games and the picks I made for them. Then I'll spew forth my picks for the remaining week 12 games with all the insight and intelligence you would expect from an overweight computer nerd who's typing an NFL picks column while watching Spongebob out of the other eye. So... ya know... enjoy!
Packers (-7) 27, Lions 15
For just over a half, I really thought the Lions had this game. I really thought the Lions would keep frustrating the Green Bay offense and maybe force a mistake, would eventually get downfield on the Packers' porous pass defense (say that 5 times fast), and put up some points and actually win the game. For the first 35 minutes or so the Lions seemed to have more or less the right idea playing the Packers, but a few strange things happened that tilted the contest quickly and the Lions never recovered. First, the Lions lost Kevin Smith. This sucked on multiple levels: Smith was getting yards in large chunks early on, and looked like a man possessed... like a person that had been given a second chance and would be damned if he was going to lose it. Also, I had just picked him up to replace Fred Jackson, the only decent producing RB on my fantasy team. Damn my luck. Second, for some reason I still do not understand the Lions decided to play small ball with the Packers. They took short passes and checkdowns... even when it became clear that the Packers were sitting on the routes in the flat and jumping them on the inside, the Lions still went to them time and time again. I'm not sure they attacked the Packers downfield once. Why was this? Is Stafford really that hurt? You have one of the best deep threats in football and one of the worst pass defenses in football, and you don't challenge them? This is completely befuddling to me. Lastly, here's what I said in my last column:
The Packers have been thriving on turnovers, and if they can turn the Lions over 3 or more times, they will probably win the game in a walk...Yup. The Packers picked off Stafford three times... two of them just bad throws. This set the Packers up with short fields on two occasions that led to touchdowns. This just has to kill the defense mentally, who had been keeping the Packers high-flying offense at bay until the offense put their backs against the wall... and sooner or later if you put the Packers that close to the endzone, they're going to score. And once that started happening, the Lions' defense began to lose their composure. This is prone to happen on a defense that plays on high energy and bad intentions... frustrations can take over. This ultimately led to Ndamukong Suh losing his freaking mind and essentially killing his team. I don't want to get into a huge dissection of what happened... you all saw it. Bottom line, I don't care whether he was in his right mind or not, a player of Suh's stature and importance needs to be professional enough to understand the situation and realize that playing with an edge is fine, but a complete inability to control oneself in crucial situations displays a selfishness that can not be tolerated. The more Suh demonstrates a lack of self control, the more savvy veterans will goad him into doing something stupid. His actions in the game on Thursday cost his team 4 points, positive momentum, and his much needed presence on the defensive line, and in my view, ultimately cost them the game. This is unacceptable and his coach should make an example of him and sit him a game even if the NFL doesn't suspend him (which they will).
End result: a Packers' win and the continuation of an undefeated season. But what I will say is that the Packers were ripe to be had in this game. If Stafford doesn't throw those first two interceptions, I believe the Lions would have held it together and I think the Packers could have been beaten. They don't run the ball well at all, and eventually the defense is not going to bail them out with interceptions in some game. Despite the win, I'm more convinced than ever that the Packers will lose at some point in the coming weeks.
Cowboys (-9) 20, Dolphins 19
Sometimes, you just know how a game is going to go... you feel it so strongly that you can see it playing out in your mind long before the game is played... I had that feeling last year in the Patriots' playoff loss to the Jets. And I've done it a couple of times this season... and similarly, I hit this one exactly on the head. Here's what I said in my last column:
I like the way the Dolphins are playing with Matt Moore behind center. I think much like the Redskins game, the Cowboys will win with a late score. But the Dolphins cover.Yeah... pretty much. Cowboys not as good as most people think, and Dolphins not as bad... saw this coming a mile away.
Ravens (-3) 16, 49ers 6
This one played out about as I expected as well... I figured it would be a hard-nosed, defensive struggle that would come down to who could run the ball better and make fewer mistakes... just turns out I picked the wrong team to meet those criteria. And just as I mentioned in my column, it was the Niners' inability to convert on third down that ultimately doomed them. In this game they went just 2 for 12. That's not going to beat many teams, nevermind good defensive teams like the Ravens. The Ravens didn't exactly turn any heads with their offensive play either, but the Ravens are just a different team at home, especially defensively. I still think they are wildly overrated, and won't do well if they have to go on the road in the payoffs... but for this night, they were the tougher, better team.
Remaining Week 12 Picks (home team in CAPS)
ATLANTA (-9.5) over Minnesota
The Falcons are playing better of late, and are home, where they play much better in general... and the Vikings don't match up well defensively. Look for the Falcons to establish the run early, then score on play action later in the game. Adrian Peterson is unlikely to play, making it even less likely that the Vikings can keep pace.
CINCINNATI (-7) over Cleveland
Given that the Bengals have played back to back close games against their top two rivals, and lost them both, this game could go one of two ways. Either the Bengals spent so much energy and emotion on the past two games that they will have little left in the tank, come out flat, and lay an egg against the Browns, or they will be pissed off for losing two games they could have won, and will be looking to take out some frustrations on the Browns and lay the lumber to them. I'm banking on the latter.
TENNESSEE (-3.5) over Tampa Bay
The Bucs played their superbowl last week against the Packers... they put everything they had into the game and still came up well short. I feel like they are going to come out very flat and will struggle to get up for this game. I have no idea what to make of the Titans at this point... they vacillate between looking great and looking terrible... often within the same game. Hasselback looks like he'll be playing this game... Chris Johnson... crap, who the hell knows? He could run for 80 yards on the first play, and then pop a hammie running out of bounds at the 3. Whatever. I think the Titans will win this game by a touchdown at least, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get blown out either.
Carolina (-4) over INDIANAPOLIS
Too much Cam Newton, too much athleticism for the Panthers, not enough of... well... anything for the Colts. Could someone please explain to me how Bill Polian has escaped the scathing criticism he is due for this absolute disaster of a team? Any team that can go from playoff contender to 0-16 with the loss of any player is a total failure in my opinion. And I still have my doubts about how good this team would have been with Manning.
Arizona (+3) over ST LOUIS
I refuse to take the Rams as a favorite at any point in this season against any team that doesn't end in "olts". Home or away. The Cardinals are pretty bad too, but they have shown flashes at times. This is just another one of those "flip a coin" games between two bad teams. Still like the Cardinals just a little better though.
NY JETS (-9.5) over Buffalo
Both of these teams are 5-5 and falling like a stone in the AFC... neither one has a prayer of catching the Patriots for the AFC East at this point, barring a horrific turn of events in New England. But the Bills are in much, much worse shape at this point. They've lost their top offensive player in Fred Jackson for the season... they've lost their best offensive lineman, their best wide receiver is still hobbling, and their QB has reverted back to the over-throwing, inaccurate backup he was when he first came to the Bills. They've been blown out in three consecutive games and are collapsing like a dying star. The Jets haven't been much better of late... the offense is simply non-existent at times and the defense, as good as it is, spends way too much time on the field. They absolutely need a win to have any prayer of a post-season appearance (which may already be out of reach, frankly... too many good teams, and unfortunately the AFC West gets somebody in by default).
JACKSONVILLE (+4.5) over Houston
Yeah, sorry... there's no way I can convince myself to take Matt Leinart as a road favorite at this point. Look, I know the Texans run the ball more than anyone, but think about it... don't you think that Matt Schaub and a decent corps of wide receivers in any way helps that? Don't you think that the Jags, who have a better-than-you-realize defense, will load the box and make Leinart beat them? I do... and frankly I've never seen anything from Matt Leinart that makes me think he's capable of doing that. And yeah, I know the guy on the other side is the one and only Blane "33rd ranked QB" Gabbert, but I'm counting on a steady diet of MJD, stingy defense, and home field to take the Jags to a win.
Chicago (+4) over OAKLAND
Classic "Us vs. the world" game for the Bears... Everyone has been lamenting the loss of Jay Cutler, and even their backup plan, Kyle Orton, fell through when the Chiefs inexplicably scooped him off the waiver wire. They're being counted out, and I think that will fire them up. The Raiders have been improving under Carson Palmer but they haven't faced a defense like the Bears with him yet. I see them rattling Palmer into a couple of mistakes, and I see the Raiders struggling to move the ball. The Bears will keep it simple on offense and run the ball with Matt Forte, and as we all saw in the Denver game, the Raiders can be run on. I like the Bears to answer the rallying cry and win an emotional game in Oakland.
SEATTLE (-3.5) over Washington
The Seahawks continue to have the best home field advantage in the NFL, and I expect them to take care of the hapless Redskins and show them that "state" beats "district" every time.
New England (-3.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Patriots getting very little respect from Vegas... I expected this line to be a few points higher. No Vick, very possibly no Nnamdi Asomugha... one good game against the Giants doesn't negate how bad this team has been more often than not this season. The Pats can't afford to fall asleep against any team this year. They know how important home field advantage is going to be in the playoffs, and they will be playing that way. Philly is a tough place to play, but I think Brady and the Pats can outscore Vince Young and the Eagles without much trouble.
SAN DIEGO (-6) over Denver's running game.
This game is the season for the Chargers. Period. Look, they're probably done already, but the one chance they do have is to catch the Raiders for the division. They have no chance of doing that if they let Tebow and the Broncos run all over them. The line for this game opened at 7... and at 7 I might have been tempted to take the Broncos. At six I'll take the Chargers... I think they put it together for this game, at home, when they absolutely must.
Pittsburgh (-11) over KANSAS CITY
Kansas City's celebrated home-field advantage hasn't really existed in years. See, in order to take advantage of a loud stadium and rabid fans, you generally still need to have talent. The Chiefs have been lacking in that area for a long time now. And with the injuries this year, there's less than ever. Honestly, outside of a defensive turnover I don't see how the Chiefs, who only managed to put up 3 points on the Patriots, can score even a point against the Steelers. We'll see... either way I don't see the Chiefs covering the 11 points.
NY Giants (+7) over NEW ORLEANS
I know the Giants have lost two straight and struggled offensively, but they actually match up well against the Saints, who in many respects are alot like the Patriots. High scoring offense, elite QB, average to below average defense, don't run the ball a whole lot, don't do as well with pressure up the middle. I think the Giants are equipped to handle the Saints, and I expect them to certainly keep it closer than a touchdown.
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