As I watched the games unfold last week, I was getting a rather sour feeling in my stomach as I kept thinking "man, I picked THAT one wrong" more times than I care to count. As it turns out, I came out slightly ahead, which is actually pretty decent picking against the spread. Still and all, I feel like I didn't do so well, and some games I was just dead wrong on... way, way off. I'm sure I will find some wonderful excuses why those picks weren't really my fault. I hope you enjoy them.
Broncos (+7) 17, Jets 13
This game said way more about the Jets than the Broncos. The Jets have serious issues on offense, and the decision to change the defensive attack on the last drive was just puzzling, and led to the loss. As I said in my last column, I'm done talking about what's his name, so... that's all I have to say about that.
Browns (+1) 14, Jaguars 10
There's a reason I simply can't get behind Blane Gabbert as a favorite on the road, against any team, and it's hard to put into words... so let me just show you why by pointing you to this play. Enough said. Oh, and for those of you who watched this game and saw just how inept this Jaguars team is, remember that they beat the Ravens... who are still for some reason ranked as a top five team.
Lions (-7) 49, Panthers 35
As I mentioned in my picks column, I was worried that the Lions might be caught looking ahead a bit to their showdown against the Packers Thanksgiving day. And for a while it looked like that might be exactly what was happening. But the Panthers did a wonderful job of smacking the Lions awake in the first half, jumping out to a 10-0 first quarter lead and expanding it to 27-14 by halftime. Predictably, the Lions woke up in the second half while the Panthers obligingly played loose with the football. Cam Newton fell apart completely in the second half, throwing incomplete passes on 3 consecutive third downs and tossing three picks, and the Panthers defense was horrible. The Lions needed this win badly so they could go in to the big game against Green Bay feeling a little more confidence and less tight about needing to win the game just to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Green Bay (-14) 35, Tampa 26
The Packers are 10-0, but the more I watch this team, the more I'm convinced that they won't go undefeated. Tampa really outplayed them for much of this game, and the stats bear that out... the Bucs (not exactly a top tier offense) put up 455 yards on Green Bay and won the time of possession battle. Watching portions of this game, I really wanted to take a look back at the Packers' schedule, because as I was trying to think about it, I couldn't really remember them playing any really good teams. And looking back, they have only played 3 games against teams that currently have winning records. They beat the Saints in an opening night shootout, and the Bears in week 3 before Mike Martz realized he wasn't actually coaching the '99 Rams. Their only other win against a decent team is against the wildly inconsistent Falcons. So looking back at it, the Packers have rolled over a very easy schedule to this point. But they are extremely flawed. This is a very one-dimensional team. Granted, that one dimension is the best passing offense since the '07 Patriots...
*** quick sidebar here... honestly, can we please stop hearing about how Rodgers is playing better than any quarterback, ever? I've heard that several times from multiple sources on ESPN and other media outlets and frankly it's one of the more ridiculous over-statements I've ever heard. Rodgers is playing out of his mind right now, absolutely, but having watched pro football religiously for the better part of 30 years I can name 5 seasons off the top of my head that were head and shoulders above what Rodgers is doing, against better competition, with better stats. Steve Young in '94, Kurt Warner in '99, Peyton Manning AND Duante Culpepper in '04 (yeah, he really did... look it up) and the standard by which any "greatest season by a QB" should be measured, Tom Brady on '07... Rodgers will have to play completely out of his mind over the last 6 games to get close to those seasons, in my opinion. OK... back to the column***
... but the Packers don't run the ball well at all, and their defense is really quite bad. Now, as you know I don't put much stock in the "yards per game allowed" stat for rating a defense, especially for teams like the Packers and Patriots who have elite offenses and get out in front of teams, forcing them to throw the ball all over the yard. But, like the Patriots, the Packers still have a very, very porous defense. The most troubling thing with the Packers defense is how much they have relied on the turnover to bail them out. The Bills' defense did this for weeks, and then when the turnovers stopped coming, what was left was simply a bad defense who has trouble stopping anyone. I think a team with this many flaws is going to stumble at least once down the stretch, and the schedule is much tougher in the final 6 weeks for the Pack, with games against the Giants, Raiders, Bears, and 2 against the Lions including this upcoming game. I think the Packers could lose any of those games, and am certain they will lose one.
Dolphins (pick) 35, Bills 8
I could not have been more wrong on this game. What a complete disaster the Bills have become. I honestly am a little surprised by it. But what I'm most surprised by is how far the offense has fallen. Look, I was honest about this team from the beginning... I thought they were playing over their heads, that they were not as good as their record and would ultimately finish around 9-7... still better than I thought they'd be but nowhere near a real contender. I thought they had real problems on defense and were getting very fortunate living off turnovers. But I really thought their offense was still very good... I thought they had real balance, and talent at all three skill positions. But something has happened since the blowout win against the Redskins in Toronto and it has mostly to do with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who suddenly has reverted back to his pre-2011 form and can't throw the ball accurately. And just as suddenly the Bills can't run the ball anymore. I can't really explain it but the Bills are a mess right now on both sides of the ball, and the schedule won't help them, with 4 of their last 6 games against good teams, 3 on the road. It's been a nice season, Buffalo... enjoy your long term contract with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins, on the other hand, look like a different team behind Matt Moore... but remember, Moore did this with a terrible Panthers team a couple of years ago, so this isn't unfamiliar territory for him. I like them to be competitive the rest of the way with Moore... which is just great for me, because it takes a division rival out of the Luck sweepstakes.
Raiders (-1) 27, Vikings 21
Simply put, I over-estimated the learning curve with Christian Ponder, and once Adrian Peterson got hurt, the Vikings are a much different team on offense. Ponder has played pretty well, considering he's a rookie, but he hasn't really improved since his first start against the Packers... in fact he's gone backwards if anything. Oakland continues to restructure its offensive identity around Carson Palmer and might be a real threat to do something down the stretch, especially if Darren McFadden returns anywhere close to the player he was before getting hurt. I still don't trust Palmer in crucial situations in big games, however.
Cowboys (-8) 27, Redskins 24
The sports media world is a very odd one, I've found... I thought right away that 8 points was way too much to favor Dallas in this game. The Redskins are not a very good team right now and are in a bit of chaos... and the Cowboys almost, and probably should have, lost this game. But even still, the sports-radio talk show airwaves are filling up this week with murmurs of the Cowboys suddenly being a real threat in the NFC. No... nuh-uh... I'm not buying it. After losing 3 of 4 and looking awful in the process the Cowboys have ripped off three straight, but against the lowly Seahawks, crumbling Bills, and terrible Redskins. And they haven't played a real decent defense in that stretch. This is still a 9-7 team in my view.
Ravens (-7) 31, Bengals 24
I get a push here... but I really thought the Bengals could get it done in this spot. You know, he's played so well overall that it's easy to forget that Andy Dalton is still a rookie, and the Ravens defense is filled with veterans like Ed Reed who feast on wide-eyed rookies. And true to form, the Ravens picked Dalton off 3 times, twice deep inside their own territory setting up Baltimore with short fields, on which they scored on the ensuing play on both occasions. That was really the difference in the game, as the Bengals actually had a decent edge in stats in both total yards, and time of possession. This is a game they could have easily won... and the Ravens offense is still really not very good. The Bengals will see the Ravens in the season finale in Cincinnati, and I have a feeling the outcome may be very different the next time.
Seahawks (+1) 24, Rams 7
I had very little to say about this game going in, and about the same to say going out... except to ask the question: how did the Rams get this bad? I didn't see it coming.
49ers (-10) 23, Cardinals 7
The Niners continue to win, but I have to say, they really didn't look great in this game against a much weaker opponent. The defense was great, as it has been all season, but the offense really sputters at times. Alex Smith has done an admirable job this year, and Jim Harbaugh has been masterful at not asking him to do too much, but when the Niners are in third and long, Smith is simply too limited. The Niners are really bad on third down and eventually that's going to bite them, I think.
Falcons (-7) 23, Titans 17
Turner rushes for 100 yards, Ryan has a good game and stays off his back, and the Falcons win. This is the formula for Falcons' success. The fumble deep in Titans territory by Turner was really unacceptable in that spot. You really need to protect the football better than that in that situation. Hasselback gets hurt in this game, but was honestly horrible enough to deserve getting benched even had he not been injured. One time prodigy Jake Locker makes his NFL debut and acquits himself fairly well (do the Titans let him play out the year at this point?), but the most deplorable issue for the Titans is the following: Chris Johnson carried the ball 12 times for 14 yards. And he wasn't even the leading rusher. Hasselback outdid him in one rush, for 17 yards. Chris Johnson should give every penny of this years's salary back to the Titans. What a total disappointment.
Bears (-4) 31, Chargers 20
The Bears were just beginning to round into form it seems when of course Jay Cutler breaks his thumb making a play to save a touchdown. And you know, it was such a weird play... so multi-faceted, so many story-lines on that one play alone... for once it was an interception that was completely not Cutler's fault... his receiver fell down making his cut and the ball just went right into the defender's hand. Cutler, who has had his toughness questioned on multiple occasions, chases the play down and engages blockers trying to get the defender out of bounds and prevent a touchdown, which he does, but breaks his thumb in the process... then Cutler is seen on the sideline pitching a hissy fit, in typical fashion. And lastly, there are the Chargers with a great chance to get within a field goal, set up on the 16 yard line, and Rivers throws yet another killer interception as his nightmare season continues. Just a bizarre sequence. So now Cutler is lost for the regular season at least, and the Bears initially looked to be turning the reigns over to *gulp*... Caleb Hanie, whose career stats look like this: 8 of 14 for 66 yards, an INT, and a QB rating of 39.4 (eat your heart out, Tebow). Yikes. But late word is the Bears will try to make a play for Kyle Orton, who was so bad in Denver he was replaced by the worst throwing quarterback in the NFL. Yeah, Orton played for the Bears years ago, but the only thing that will be familiar to him will be the locker room, as the Mike Martz offense will be completely new to him. In short, I think the Bears are pretty screwed. Is Kurt Warner back bagging groceries? Maybe Martz should give him a call... he can't be more than 45.
Eagles (+5) 17, Giants 10
This is a totally inexcusable loss for the Giants. The Eagles are a below average team, with their star QB hurt, and a defense that has been average at best and can be run on... but the Giants managed only 12 first downs, 2 of which came by way of penalty. They simply could not run the ball at all, gaining only 29 yards on 17 rushes. Truth be told, this game shouldn't have been anywhere near as close as it was. The Giants were dominated and the Eagles had a nearly 2:1 advantage in time of possession. Anytime a team holds the ball for nearly 40 minutes, it's usually not a close game. And in typical fashion, the Legend of Eli Manning is being treated with kid gloves, due to the apparent double-secret media promise to not disparage the great name of Manning in any way, shape or form. While Eli was heaped with undeserved praise for "winning" a game against the Patriots with the help of two Pass Interference calls on horribly thrown balls, he's gotten virtually zero criticism for losing the game this week, due to a fumble caused by complete lack of awareness of the situation. Eli had a first down on the Eagles' 21 yard line in a tie game late in the 4th quarter, and instead of throwing the ball away when he was flushed from the pocket, knowing the heat was coming and knowing that it was first down and not third, Eli gets stupid and starts to half-run to the side, not bothering to look around him, probably looking for a spot in the endzone with blue helmets to chuck it towards... and unsurprisingly he has the ball stripped from his hands by a pursuing defender. This was a needless and stupid play that likely took points off the board for the Giants and led to the ensuing winning score by the Eagles. And as I expected, no-one has so much as whispered a word of criticism. It's really quite unbelievable, this Eli phenomenon... The Giants lost a huge opportunity to take total command of the division in this game, and frankly looked pretty bad in the process. It will be interesting to see how they bounce back next Monday night in a very tough game against the resurgent Saints. The Giants could be looking at a third straight loss and on the outside looking in on the playoff picture.
Patriots (-14.5) 34, Chiefs 3
In addition to a good deal of chatter about the Patriots now being back to maybe the favorite in the AFC (I'm not on that bandwagon yet... I put the Pats on equal footing with the Steelers, and since the Steelers beat them, I have to give them the nod), there was also a great deal of hand-wringing again in the Boston media (I know, I know... you're all shocked and dismayed) about the slow start by the Patriots offense. The Patriots punted on their first 4 possessions and looked very much out of sync (again, they didn't bother using the no-huddle till later in the game... I still don't get this) until they finally made some adjustments and then throttled the Chiefs, as they were supposed to do. So naturally the 'experts' want to know what's wrong. Ummm... isn't it pretty obvious? The guy running the defense on the other sideline (Romeo Crennel) spent the better part of a decade with the Pats, and knows a thing or two about Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's tendencies. So it's not surprising at all that he would come up with some wrinkles that would fluster the Pats hall-of-fame QB and he might struggle. But as they so often do, the Pats began to recognize the strategy and adjusted. As most everyone knows, the way to rattle Brady is to bring pressure up the middle. The Chiefs did this by overloading one side of the line and bringing defenders in lines of three and four up the same spot, while playing press coverage at the line to keep receivers from getting open on the hot routes... blockers can handle the first or second guy, but the third guy too often got through unblocked, and the Patriots, who were playing their base single-back offense, too often had the running back headed out to the flat, leaving no last line of defense. The Patriots ultimately recognized this and also recognized that to get this pressure, the Chiefs were sacrificing the intermediate middle of the field along the seams. So they adjusted by keeping the running backs in to block, and sending their all-world Tight Ends into that intermediate area in the middle of the field. That was exactly how Gronkowski scored his first TD. Then it was completion after completion to Gronkowski and Hernandez until finally the Chiefs had to back off their strategy and back off the pressure up the middle. At which point Brady then had time to carve the Chiefs apart, which he did in the second half. So at the end of the day the game turned out exactly as I had expected it to... Romeo put in some wrinkles, the Pats figured them out and adjusted, and it was lights out. The Pats won a game they were supposed to win, the game was never really in doubt, and the Pats now really have a hold on this conference. With the remaining schedule they should go 12-4 at worst, and 13-3 is a very real possibility. That would likely mean a number one seed, a bye, and a home game. In this season of transition and inconsistency, will I take that? You better believe it.
This week's record: 7-6-1. Season: 56-44-2
THANKSGIVING DAY PICKS (home teams in CAPS)
This Thanksgiving I will be feasting on dogs... underdogs! (see what I did there?)
DETROIT (+7) over Green Bay
I know, I know... everyone is picking the Lions. But honestly, I think the Lions will not only cover this spread, but win the game. As I said above, the Packers are a flawed 10-0 team, and haven't played a very tough schedule. The Lions got a bit of their swagger back last week, and I think they will put up big numbers on the Packers. This may sound cliche, but to me the key will be turnovers. The Packers have been thriving on turnovers, and if they can turn the Lions over 3 or more times, they will probably win the game in a walk... but if the Lions take care of the ball and play their game, I think they can beat this Packers team. Either way, I'm going to enjoy watching it.
Miami (+9) over DALLAS
The Cowboys have won three in a row against pretty light competition. The Dolphins have won three in a row, when everyone thought they were the light competition. I like the way the Dolphins are playing with Matt Moore behind center. I think much like the Redskins game, the Cowboys will win with a late score. But the Dolphins cover.
San Francisco (+3) over BALTIMORE
The Ravens continue to somehow fool everyone, including Vegas. These two teams are very similar... both rely on running the ball and tough, physical defense... both have QBs who struggle at times throwing the ball. If not for the Niners' struggles on third downs, I would pick them in a blowout... I think they are the better team. I will still take the Niners' to win this game in a close one.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!
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