 |
| Hey! Somebody tackle him!!! He can still run around for like five minutes like that! |
After skipping a week, byes are back... so fewer games on the slate this week. Don't try to understand it... just accept it and move on. So, with that, on to the picks. As always, picks are against the spread (as of Thursday) and hoe teams are in CAPS.
NY Jets (-7) over DENVER
I simply refuse to accept that this gimmicky run-option can succeed in the NFL for long, especially against better defenses like the Jets have. Defensive players in the NFL, ultimately, are too fast and too athletic for this schtick to work for long. Look... it's not as if we haven't seen it tried. The "Wildcat" has been part of several team's standard playset since the Dolphins rolled it out with great success against the Patriots several years back. It worked for two reasons: One, because it was new and teams weren't prepared for it. And two, because it was only used occasionally, and the team running it was still capable of throwing the ball in most situations. Since the first couple of years after the Dolphins "Wildcat" game, it has very much gone back to being a rarely used gimmick. The Jets toyed with it using Brad Smith, but it didn't work often enough and they jettisoned it. Most teams now have defensive packages built in to counter the "Wildcat", and it hasn't enjoyed nearly the success it once did in the last couple of years. As a result, you rarely see it employed. The reason? If teams are prepared for it, it usually doesn't work. Why not, you might ask? Many college teams run it with great success. So why wouldn't it work at the pro level? The answer is really quite simple. In college even the best teams only have 3 or 4 players on defense that are NFL caliber, in terms of size, speed and athleticism. Most don't have more than one, maybe. So you can get away with running this style of offense because generally your skill players are going to be faster and stronger than the defensive players. This is far from the case in the NFL, where every team has defensive players just as fast and athletic as the offensive skill players. NFL teams can play 8 in the box and stop any type of option-run play, regardless of the talent level of the players on the other side. And if this Tebow-run-option scheme is actually successful at this level, then everything I thought I knew about football at the pro level is dead wrong. And I just can't believe that at this point. I fully expect the Jets defense to do exactly what the Lions defense did... challenge the line of scrimmage, swallow the runners whole and make Tebow try to beat you with his arm, which is unlikely.
CLEVELAND (+1) over Jacksonville
As much as I don't like the way the Browns are playing, I simply can't bet on Blane Gabbert as a road favorite. Here's an interesting fact: Gabbert is the 33rd ranked quarterback in the NFL. Yes... you are right... there are only 32 teams in the NFL. So yeah... he's got that going for him.
DETROIT (-7) over Carolina
I have mixed feelings about this game. Detroit needs a win in the worst way, and Cam-olina looks like they've hit a wall. It's a home game for the Lions, against a team they should beat... BUT... there's this little game coming up just 4 days later on Turkey Day against a certain undefeated defending Superbowl champion who also happens to be in the same division... so I'm a little concerned about the Lions not having their minds in the right place, or focused on the right game. Still, I'll take the Lions at home.
Tampa Bay (+14) over GREEN BAY
For more or less the same reasons I gave above in the Lions game. Home game against a lesser opponent just before a big nationally televised game on the road against a division rival with your undefeated record on the line. I don't see the Bucs actually winning this game, but I can totally see the Packers playing a little too complacently and finding the Bucs still within range as the 4th quarter approaches. The Packers close it out, but the Bucs, who still have some talent despite their struggles, keep it closer than 14.
Buffalo (pick) over MIAMI
Who would ever have foreseen this line three weeks ago? Buffalo is definitely reeling, but Miami doesn't have the type of defense the Bills have struggled with. I expect the Bills' offense to re-emerge in this game in a big way. I expect big games from both Fred Jackson and Ryan Fitzpatrick and I honestly see a Bills romp. At which point the national sports media will typically overreact and spend the next week hyping the Bills up as contenders again unnecessarily. Cause, ya know, that's just what they do.
MINNESOTA (+1) over Oakland
The Vikings got crushed this past week at Green Bay... but hey, that's going to happen to a lot of teams this year. This is a team improving weak to weak I think. Oakland got a great win last week against the Chargers, but I think the Vikings match up a little better. I need to see more than one good game from Carson Palmer to believe what I saw last week is the rule and not the exception. I'll take the Vikings at home.
WASHINGTON (+8) over Dallas
Back in week 3 it was the Cowboys who handed the Redskins their first loss. That game was in Dallas and the Cowboys won with 6 field goals. I still don't see Dallas as that far ahead of where they were then. I think the Cowboys will win this game, as they are the better team, but I don't think they're 8 points better than the Redskins in Washington.
Cincinnati (+7) over BALTIMORE
Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue what Vegas is thinking here. Both of these teams are 6-3, but let's take a look at the three losses for the two teams. The Bengals have a road loss to Denver in Andy Dalton's second start as a rookie, and then losses to San Francisco and Pittsburgh, arguably 2 of the top 5 teams in the NFL, sandwiched around 5 straight wins. The Ravens meanwhile have an early loss to Tennessee, and then recent losses to Jacksonville and Seattle, arguably 2 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL. At no point in the season have the Bengals ever looked remotely as bad as the Ravens have looked on offense in multiple games, including both losses to the Jaguars and Seahawks, and 3 quarters of a home game they nearly lost to Arizona, another below average team. Yet still the Ravens are ranked in the top 6 in ESPN's power poll and top 5 in SI's power rankings. All based on two wins over Pittsburgh. I simply do not get it. This is an average team with an above average defense. I really don't understand the continued belief in the Ravens as an elite team. Has anyone actually seen those performances in the past 6 weeks? To call them uneven would be to seriously understate it. In contrast, the Bengals have been consistent, steady, and competitive even in defeat. The Bengals have a better defense than people realize. The Ravens will struggle to move the ball consistently, and I think the Bengals will win this game.
ST. LOUIS (-1) over Seattle
Sure. Why not? I have to pick one of them.
SAN FRANCISCO (-10) over Arizona
The 49ers have finally stopped being treated as the "surprise story" of the season that everybody expects to come down to earth at some point and are now rightfully seen as one of the "big boys". The game against the Giants removed any last lingering doubts some pundits might have been clinging to. I've been saying for years that great teams are built on the lines. It's the reason the Patriots were still a top team in 2006 despite having almost no weapons on offense outside of Tom Brady, and the reason they are still a top team this year despite having parking lot attendants starting in the defensive backfield. (ok, I don't know if that's true, but would you be surprised? You get my point) The one thing the Patriots continually have is strength and depth on the lines. Say what you want about the defense this year, but the line play has been solid. The same is true in San Francisco, where the secret to the Niners' success, in my opinion, is along the offensive and defensive lines. The Niners' lines are playing with attitude and imposing their will on their opponents well enough to keep Alex Smith upright and comfortable and make the running game one of the top in the NFL, while also making it very tough to run on them. That kind of play will mean success for just about any team. Smart teams don't overvalue skill positions while undervaluing players that control the trenches.
ATLANTA (-7) over Tennessee
Despite the tough loss to the Saints after a total dumbass decision by head coach Mike Smith, The Falcons are playing better of late, mainly because they have gotten back to running the ball. Prior to the game against the Saints, in the Falcons' losses they ran the ball on average 17 times a game for 78 yards per game. In their wins they ran an average of 34.5 times a game for 142.4 yards per game. Even in the loss to New Orleans, a game they could easily have won, they ran the ball well, 32 times for 138 yards. More important than the yards gained is the attempts for the Falcons. More than any other team in the NFL the Falcons rely on their running game to set up their play-action passing game. The stats obviously bear that out. Of late they are pounding the rock, and the results are pretty clear. I like them to run right at the Titans about 35 times and beat a very inconsistent Titans team at home by more than a touchdown.
CHICAGO (-4) over San Diego
This line seems a bit low to me. The Bears are playing their best football right now. You saw what the Raiders defense did to Phillip Rivers... what do you think Brian Urlacher and the Bears are going to do to him? San Diego isn't going to have their patented late season ascent this year, I don't believe. As I mentioned above, line play is key in the NFL, and the Chargers are struggling on both lines right now. Chicago wins this one by double digits.
NY GIANTS (-5) over Philadelphia
I could see a hangover effect for the Giants coming off a tough loss and a cross-country flight, but the Eagles are a bit of a mess right now, with a very disgruntled star receiver and a QB who will be limited by injury... who was frankly already limited by his decision making and poor throwing. If Vick was fully healthy and the Eagles weren't enduring internal turmoil, I might pick them for this game, but as it is I must take the Giants at home here.
NEW ENGLAND (-14.5) over Kansas City
The Patriots have been horrible this year as double-digit home favorites, from a bettors perspective, so I'm always hesitant to take them as 2 touchdown favorites, but this game has all the makings of a blowout. The Chiefs aren't very good on either side of the ball, and with the combination of inexperienced Tyler Palko and the newly discovered Patriots pass rush I think it's going to be a very long night for KC. This one could be over by midway through the third quarter... and who knows... might we see some playing time for Ryan Mallett? I can only hope the game is that far out of reach by then.
Go Raiders! Keep it up Brian. I really enjoy your blog.
ReplyDeleteThanks Brandon!
ReplyDelete