Can't defend the indefensible...

For the better part of the first 7 weeks of the season, I've spent a lot of time defending (ok, some would call it 'rationalizing'... whatever... po-tay-to, pa-tah-to) the Patriots defense... particularly their league-worst statistical pass defense. I've made arguments that teams are forced to throw because they are down big so often, and that the Pats are willing to allow over-the-middle completions 10 or so yards downfield that move the ball but chew up clock, while generally playing pretty good defense in the red zone. I've said that while I accept that this is by no means not a good defense... heck, maybe even a fairly poor defense... they were not the worst defense in the league as stats would indicate.

After watching yesterday's game, I'm forced to reluctantly consider the fact that they might well BE the worst pass defense in the league, and that perhaps the numbers are in truth a reflection of just how soft they are. To wit: Ben Roethlissberger will never be confused with Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers... he's a very good QB but that's simply not his normal M.O. However yesterday he looked every bit the part of Tom Brady, carving up the Pats defense with 10 - 15 yard passes to receivers who were so wide open only Tim Tebow could miss them (by the way, dear Tebow supporters, please shut the hell up now. Thanks). The Steelers' offense looked eerily identical to the one the Patriots have employed over the past two two seasons. The routes looked similar, the yards after the catch was a huge component. The running game ticked off just enough chunks to keep the defense honest... they were a precision machine that, with any ability to get in the endzone consistently, would have had this game wrapped up in about the middle of the third quarter.

As a sidebar, If I'm a Steeler fan today, I'm half ecstatic about the way our offense performed and half panicked about the fact that in truth if the refs hadn't totally botched things in the last 4 minutes (we'll get back to that) the Steelers would have been in very real danger of losing a game they dominated in every phase and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. I don't care how much you dominate an opponent in a game... if you can't score touchdowns in the red zone eventually you will lose games you have no business losing... especially to a team like the Patriots who can score so quickly and have so many weapons. The Steelers damn near had that happen to them yesterday, and fans should be at least a bit concerned about it.

OK... back to the Patriots defense. Earlier in the week the Patriots made what might be the most dizzyingly confusing move in a season of absolutely odd moves. Look... far be it for me to question Coach Hoodie... the man has forgotten more about football than I will ever know. He's made very few decisions that are flat out wrong, and his guidance is the main reason this team has been a top 5 team in the league for the better part of a decade. But if there was one clear weak spot on this team going back to last year, it was the pass defense. Whether a result of scheme or personnel (I happen to think it's more of the former... I'll discuss more in a later article), it was clear the Patriots had issues on the back end of the defense. Outside of the drafting of the talented but injury-prone Ras-I Dowling, little was done to shore up this group. However it seemed what it lacked in pure top-end talent it made up for in quality of depth. Coming into the season the Patriots had rookie-of the year candidate Devin McCourty, a healthy Leigh Bodden, the underachieving but serviceable Darius Butler, the solid Patrick Chung, the mercurial Brandon Merriweather, who has talent but lacks good football sense, Brandon McGowan: a decent backup who showed flashes of being a good nickle option at safety, Antwaun Molden: an unknown discarded commodity but former 3rd round draft pick, former 4th round draft pick Jonathan Wilhite, who isn't good enough to play CB in this league frankly, Kyle Arrington, who lacks speed and natural skill but makes up for it with hustle and great instincts, the "Token Ventrone" (Ross this time instead of brother Ray), Jets cast-off and mainly special-teamer James Ihedigbo, and last year's starter James Sanders. So while there were only a couple of players with real top-end talent (McCourty and Chung... Merriweather is just not smart enough to consider his talent top-end), there was real depth, and fairly quality depth. However since the start of training camp Belichick has cut ties with DBs faster than Kim Kardashian goes through professional athletes (her sudden filing for divorce just 72 days into marriage is the top trending story on the internet right now... don't you wish you didn't know that now?). Sanders, Merriweather, and Butler, three players who logged significant time the past couple of years, were cut. McGowan was let go, as was Wilhite. So right off the bat you've cut 3 safeties and 2 CBs with real NFL experience and knowledge of the Patriots scheme. That's before a down of regular season football is played. As the season moves on we see that the pass defense is a serious problem. With a lack of quality depth the Patriots are left exposed playing practice squad players in nickle and dime defenses. McCourty and Bodden struggle to maintain their high level of play as they are basically being asked to anchor the entire defensive backfield... a tall order for a 2nd year pro and 12 year vet just coming off of major surgery. Fast forward to this week: the Pats pass defense is getting gashed regularly. Chung is still solid in the middle, but hampered playing with a surgically repaired hand in a cast. He's being paired with players who should be relegated to special teams or the practice squad. The Patriots have NOTHING at safety beyond Chung. Nothing. So now you've got to rely on what depth you have at CB to fill the field with DBs on passing downs. Unfortunately Ras-I Dowling, who's shown flashes of being pretty good, is put on IR... so obviously the Patriots need to pick up another CB from somewhere for depth, at least... right? RIGHT? No... instead they go ahead and CUT Leigh Bodden. The ONLY veteran presence in the defensive backfield and the LAST hope of being able to match up with a 5 WR spread. I simply do not understand this move at ALL. Not at this point in the season. Unless there is an injury we don't know about or a very serious locker-room issue. Are you telling me that Antwaun Molden is a better freaking option than Leigh Bodden?  I don't care how much of a genius Belichick is, not even Rich Kotite would try and make that case. For a team wracked with depth issues surrounding the worst position on the team, cutting Leigh Bodden made no sense.

Oh, of course the Patriots did add some depth by adding CBs Malcolm Williams and Josh Victorian to the practice squad. What, you've never heard of them? Me neither. And trust me, with a name like Josh Victorian, if he'd ever done anything of note we'd remember it.

So here we are going into week 9 having submitted maybe the worst pass-defense performance I've ever witnessed in my 35+ years as a Patriots fan (ok, clearly an exaggeration, but work with me here), and our league-worst pass defense is made up of the confidence-shaken Devin McCourty, undrafted Kyle Arrington (I don't care that he's leading the league in interceptions... he looks lost out there most of the time), One-handed Patrick Chung, and whoever the hell they decide to stick next to him from special teams. How can Belichick possibly see this as a recipe for success? Are they really trying to convince us that holding on to Bodden, even as a safety net in case of injury, was just not a viable option? And if production is simply the bottom line, how the HELL does Ochocinco still have a role on this team? Here's a position with actual depth and youth if you count Hernandez as a WR (and you should, that's what he is), yet Ochocinco, who basically punctuated his entire season with that slow-footed half-effort to catch up to a Brady throw (you could see the look on Brady's face after the play.. it said "ok, son... clearly you have no idea how we do things here... that's the last ball you get... ever") in the third quarter, still has a role on this team and Leigh Bodden, who never made the slightest wave off the filed and was by all accounts a very good player on it, can't crack the lineup on the worst pass defense in the NFL? I know Belichick plays things close to the vest but this is one time I think fans are entitled to SOME sort of an explanation. I've yet to hear one. Throw us a bone... tell us you heard Champ Bailey was about to be put on waivers and you needed the cap space and the roster spot... give us something... just don't let us sit here thinking you're just too arrogant to think you actually need more than one viable option at cornerback.

So what does this mean for the Patriots, ultimately? I wrote a column last week about the Patriots ability to win a championship with the defense as currently construed. I stated that it was absurd to say otherwise... but that was before they released Bodden, put Dowling on IR and decided to play with 2 viable starting DBs total. No, no... in all seriousness I still believe what I said. I think if the Pats and Steelers played again tomorrow the outcome would be much different. No team adjusts week to week better than the Patriots under Belichick, he almost never loses twice in a row to the same opponent (regardless of personnel), and I'm guessing the Patriots will come out with a completely different plan the next time they face each other, especially if it happens to be in the playoffs. The Steelers yesterday were ready... they were pumped, they saw this as much more of a measuring stick than the Patriots, I think... and they came out the hungrier team. The Patriots played like a team that had just come off vacation... and with the stupidly negotiated rules the players put in the new CBA for themselves (I'll bet money the players themselves ask to have that changed next season after the obvious effect it's had on teams coming off a bye), that's more or less what it was. It was a really bad day at the office for the Patriots and the Steelers played their best game all season. And here's the really encouraging thing, the red-zone defense was still pretty damn good, holding the Steelers to only field goals in the second half (and a safety that should never have counted, but that's not on the defense either way), which gave the Pats a chance to make a run at winning the game late... speaking of which... 

Despite all the yards and all the plays they gave up, they still had a damn good chance to pull out a win. In fact there was a point where I said aloud to no-one in particular "if they score here with about 4 minutes left on the clock, they're winning this game". I had seen it before... Brady had that look in his eyes... the offense was operating in "hyper" mode, and for once the Steelers looked totally powerless to stop it. I was absolutely convinced of it, and it would have happened, without a doubt in my mind... until... once again (for reference please see the pass interference call in the endzone vs. the Bills, turning a Patriots interception into a first and goal for the Bills. Horrible call, cost the Pats the game), the referees stepped in and literally took the game from them (they actually screwed up twice, however the last one was really not going to help the Patriots anyhow... but just for the record the Steelers should not have been awarded a safety on that last play, as Polamalu intentionally slapped the ball forward, which every pop-warner coach knows is illegal but apparently this bungling crew of refs isn't aware of). So, with just about 4 minutes to play and the Patriots in hurry-up, Brady hits Gronkowski with a pass in the end-zone that every person in the stands and watching on TV knew was a TD... even the crowd silenced for a moment till the hit put Gronk back out of the endzone and the completely inept official called down at the one, leaving the Pats with no choice but to continue the drive, and the crowd delirious that they had missed such an obvious call. I know a lot of people are blaming Belichick for not challenging, but for some unknown reason, CBS refused to show a replay of the play so the booth upstairs couldn't instruct Belichick as to what to do... you can't risk giving up a timeout there, so you need to run the play and score as quickly as possible. It was a no win situation for the Pats... and it never should have come to that. And here's my biggest problem with the call, and the reason I say that the refs are either corrupt or completely and totally inept to the point that they don't deserve to work the games: with the goofy new rule all SCORING plays are reviewed... but by some cosmically absurd and totally idiotic oversight, plays that are on the goalline but AREN'T ruled a score are not reviewed. How does this make sense in any way? This might be the dumbest rule change of the past 20 years, mainly because it is totally incomplete. At any rate, referees are aware of this rule. They know that scoring plays are reviewed. Every one of them. They also know the situation: down two scores, about 4 minutes left... a play at the goal line, perhaps mere inches deciding touchdown or not. Wouldn't the PRUDENT and FAIR thing to do, knowing that ONLY a score is reviewed, be to simply give the benefit of the doubt on a play you MUST know carries some doubt, call it a score, and let the replay flush out the truth of it? Isn't that the only thing fair to do in such a flawed system? Isn't this something officials would certainly have talked about? You know... I HAVE to believe at some point in these ref's travels over the course of the year someone must have brought up this exact scenario. And I would have to think that in any fair evaluation of the situation, the obvious suggestion would be to call any close play on which there is any hint of doubt the way that would allow for a video replay... right? RIGHT? In any case, this mickey-mouse crew blew the call (which replay clearly showed was a touchdown... would have taken about 15 seconds to overturn), didn't even huddle to have the discussion as I see regularly happen in other games, and stole about a minute and a half from the Patriots, now down one score with barely 2:30 to play. A minute and a half for Tom Brady is the amount of time it takes him to win a superbowl. So had they had that chance, yes... I have no doubt the Patriots would have walked away winners from a game they had no business being in a position to win in the first place. But in the NFL, you take every win you can get, no matter how it comes about. The Patriots were denied a chance at this win by nothing less than sheer, utter, and total incompetence and lack of any sense of the situation, the moment, or fair play by the officials. What a failure. What a joke.

That aside, let's take a look at how this plays out going forward... once again there is a great deal of hand wringing in the Boston sports media circle. It's a bit more justified this time... although the "I told you so" crowing by some (not mentioning names) is still a bit on the premature side 7 games into a 16 game season. Look at the schedule from here on out... It's pretty favorable for the Pats, from a passing effluence standpoint. Of the remaining 9 games, only three are against teams with any real threat of a passing game (Next week against Chucker Manning and the Giants, week 12 against the "new and improved Dream Team Eagles" who for reasons that escape me, are suddenly the darlings of the league again after throttling Dallas at home, and the Bills in the final week of the season, on New Year's day in Foxborough). The other six are against the Jets, Chiefs, Colts, Redskins, Broncos and Dolphins. Talk about a favorable schedule. There isn't a top-flight NFL QB in that group. Not even close (shut up Jets fans and accept it). The Pats should go 7-2 in that stretch (I don't see the Bills beating them in Foxborough). So in the end I still like their chances at a division title, first round bye and decent playoff run, but at some point this team is going to have to figure out how to stop someone on third and long, or I'm not going to be able to watch them anymore, having spider-cracked my flat-panel TV with the remote.

NFL Week 8 picks

SMACK!!! After a 2 week hiatus the picks column is back! Please try to contain your excitement. Following a week that featured zero games pitting two opponents with winning records against one another, we change things up completely and feature ONE whole game between opponents with winning records (New England at Pittsburgh). Parity, thy name is "NFL".

Onward to the picks... as always, the picks are against the spread and home teams are in CAPS.

TENNESSEE (+9) over Indianapolis
The Titans took a pretty good beating from the Texans last week, and I fear they may be reeling a bit. But the Colts are just a terrible team and the Andrew Luck / Peyton Manning conundrum is on full alert. If this game, with this line, were in Indy I might me tempted to take the Colts, but I think the Titans cover at home without much trouble.

New Orleans (+14) over ST. LOUIS
Sorry, Vegas... you can't make this spread high enough to get me to take the Rams here. Saints are hitting their stride on offense, and the Rams have virtually no offense to speak of. Sounds like a bad combination for the Rams to me.

Miami (-10) over NY GIANTS
Remember in my previous column how I talked about the Giants tending to play to their competition? I think this week will provide a perfect example. Giants win but allow the Dolphins to hang around with bad turnovers... in typical Giants fashion... and Miami covers.

CAROLINA (+3.5) over Minnesota
Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense will put up 28 or more on the Minnesota defense, which should be more than enough to handle the Vikings and rookie QB Ponder.

Arizona (-13) over BALTIMORE
No team that has EVER played as crappy as as the Ravens did this past Monday night should EVER be given the benefit of a 13 point spread over anyone. Period. And honestly, are you going to tell me that Arizona as that much worse a team than Jacksonville? Baltimore should win this game, but 13 is too many points for me.

Jacksonville (-10) over HOUSTON
This is exactly the type of game Houston typically struggles in and winds up losing... a home game against an inferior opponent directly following a huge win on the road against a division rival. This has let down written all over it... and the Jags showed some defensive spunk last week against the Ravens.  And I'll keep picking against the Texans in these types of games until they prove me wrong. I don't feel great about it, but I'll take Jacksonville to cover.

BUFFALO (+6) over Washington
The sheen has started to rub off this Redskins team a bit and they have struggled of late. Shanahan pulled the rug out from Rex Grossman pretty quickly (not that I blame him, honestly)... I think the combination of John Beck going up against an opportunistic Bills' defense in his first start in a very long time is a recipe for many turnovers. Plus, the Bills are a much better team at home. I'll give the points and take the Bills.

Detroit (-3) over DENVER
Seriously? Three points? We all saw that game against Miami last week... right? I mean, we didn't just imagine it, right? Tim Tebow... 24 TOTAL yards passing by the 4th quarter... and the Lions are getting 3 points? I know Stafford hurt his ankle, but he practiced with the first team on Thursday and appears to be fine... maybe the line will adjust by Sunday, but at the moment it's remarkably still sitting at 3 points. I might actually have to go put real money down on this. (kidding... gambling is wrong, kids).

New England (+3) over PITTSBURGH
Oh, how I hate the sports media sometimes. Through no fault of their own, the Patriots come in to Pittsburgh to face a team that's going to feel they have something to prove, after a week of media saturation about Brady's success against them and the Patriots overall dominance in this series of late. The Patriots, of course, have said nothing to encourage such rhetoric, but the Steelers are going to feel like they did anyhow. And so media-aided motivation will be with the Steelers, at home. Which as a Pats fan just pisses me off to no end. Curse you, ESPN! That said, the game will come down to the Pats offense vs. the Steelers' defense... and that's a matchup I think the Patriots should win rather easily. In addition, the Patriots' defense is playing better and getting healthier, with Ron Brace returning to add some depth to an already pretty deep defensive line. If this line were to move another few points I might change my mind, but at 3 I'll give the points and take the Pats.

Cleveland (-9) over SAN FRANCISCO
The Niners are playing a bit over their heads right now, and even with Peyton Hillis questionable, the Browns aren't bad enough to lay 9 points, even with the game at San Fran. The Browns have a pretty decent defense and I think this game will be low scoring and fairly close.

Cincinnati (+3) over SEATTLE
This is a weird line. It actually opened with Cincy getting 2.5 from Seattle, and I'm not entirely sure why or what moved the line the other way. Either way, there are few teams I can think of that I'd favor Seattle over, home or away, and the Bengals aren't one of them. Take the points and the Bengals.

PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) over Dallas
While I don't like Philly right now, I like even less the way Dallas played in their loss to New England... I heard a lot of analysts talking about that game and how Dallas should have won it. Those people obviously didn't watch the game. The Patriots flat out owned them, and if not for a few bad turnovers it wouldn't have even been close. I like Philly here at home.

San Diego (+4) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs have won three straight, but let's be honest, against pretty bad teams (Oakland had no viable QB last week... I'm giving them a pass on that one). San Diego is doing it's typical job of under-achieving under Norv Turner. Still, I think this KC team is... ummm... not good. So I'll take the Chargers on the road.

NFL myths and truths... AFC

Yesterday I posted a column going over some common current "myths" about teams in the NFC... today I will continue that column with the AFC.

For the last decade or so the AFC has been the dominant conference in terms of number of quality teams. Coming in to this season, there were many pundits who thought the NFC might begin to overtake the AFC as the superior conference, with teams like Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Philadelphia on the rise, along with the injury to Peyton Manning essentially taking the Colts out of "elite" status in the AFC. Well, as the season has worn on, we've seen that the NFC is pretty much a two team conference, with Green Bay and New Orleans head and shoulders above a group of underachievers and mediocre teams playing somewhat over their heads. Meanwhile the AFC continues to have a steady stream of quality teams (New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Houston, Buffalo to name a few), and at this point still has a clear edge over the NFC, in my book. 

So with that, let's take a look at the myths and truths about teams in the AFC:

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Current "myth": The Bills' magical start to the season was a bit of a fluke, and they will quickly come down to earth.

Truth quotient: 6. I agree with this sentiment, but only to a point. I still think the Bills are a pretty good team, much better than I thought, and still better than some people think now. They've lost 2 of 3 after starting 3-0 and making everyone stand up and take notice. They have real issues in their defensive backfield, and have been very fortunate most of the season to have been the benefactor of multiple turnovers off of tipped or deflected balls... in fact this good fortune led directly to the difference between winning and losing in two different games. They have played a bit over their heads, and you are starting to see some of the flaws on this team exposed in the past few weeks. However, there is more to like about the Bills' than not. They have a pretty damn good QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is better than anyone thinks (I'd put him in the Pro Bowl if voting was today). He will sail a ball every now and then but is smart and gets rid of the ball quickly, and he knows his receivers' strengths and plays to them. They have a young, speedy WR corps and a very good running game and will be in most games they play. Their defense is suspect but getting better along the D-Line. I still think the Bills are a 9-7 team, just out of the playoffs, but I can see them being a real threat in the division in another year or two. They are moving in the right direction. 

NY Jets

Current "myth": Mark Sanchez is not a good enough QB to take the Jets to the next level.

Truth quotient: 7. I've never been a Mark Sanchez fan. He possesses neither the accuracy nor the arm strength to ever be a top-level NFL QB, and his decision making is only so-so. He is serviceable on a team with an elite running game, top-notch offensive line and great defense that can keep the score low enough to allow the Jets to score just enough points to win. And for the past couple of years, this was exactly the formula, used with a high level of success. Rex Ryan had the luxury of not having to depend on Sanchez to carry the team on his back. He was able to win with suffocating defense and a punishing ground game. That is not the case this year, as the Jets' running game is a shadow of its former self and the defense is only just pretty good. Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has taken a lot of grief for his conservative play calling, but I think he knows he can't run a more complex offense with Sanchez... he just doesn't have that skill set. If the Jets can manage to become a successful running team with a great defense again, I think they can win with Sanchez, but they will never be an elite team relying on Sanchez to win them games. 

Miami Dolphins

Current "myth": The Dolphins front office / coaching staff is intentionally trying to tank the season to get a shot at drafting Andrew Luck.

Truth quotient: 3. This one is making the rounds right now pretty frequently on popular sports talk shows and websites. I'm not really buying it. First of all, I think Tony Sporano is about as clear a lame-duck coach as there is in the NFL this year. He's done after the season, so there's no upside in his tanking the season for the betterment of a team he won't be with next year. Secondly, it's just not in the DNA of most NFL players to not try and win. I don't think you could get enough of them to buy into the concept to make it actually manageable. And lastly, while I'm sure the front office would love to have a shot at drafting Luck, it's bad business in the NFL to not put forth the best effort to win, as with only 8 regular season home games, the opportunity to make money on concessions and merchandise is limited... owners wouldn't knowingly risk an empty stadium. I know this has been a common practice in the NBA (Spurs, Cavs and Celtics have all been guilty of it in the past 20 years) but the makeup and number of players in the NFL makes it much more difficult to try and accomplish.

New England Patriots

Current "myth": The Patriots can not win a superbowl with their current defense.

Truth quotient: 2. The one has been real popular lately, especially in the local Boston sports rags. It's total crap. The Patriots pass defense is among the worst in the league, statistically, this is true. And they really are not a very good defense overall... this is also true (however they do seem to be showing signs of steady improvement). But what they still are is an elite offensive team that can put up 30 + points on any team in the NFL on any given day. And they have just enough on defense to make that hold up most days. In today's NFL, if you have either an elite offense, an elite defense, or above average units on both sides, you can absolutely win a superbowl. Look at the 2000  Ravens... or the 2005 Steelers, who had mediocre to poor offenses... or the 2006 Colts who for most of the season had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, statistically... you can win a superbowl and have major flaws, as long as some aspect of your team is truly elite. The Patriots are no different. They are 5-1 and considered by nearly every sports publication in the country as one of the top two teams in the NFL. Sure, they may absolutely fall in the playoffs in the first round... so might any team in the NFL... that's the beauty of the NFL: in the playoffs it's one and done. This means that in MOST years the best team for that season doesn't actually wind up winning the superbowl. The Pats may or may not even get to the big game, but to say that have no chance at winning it all because of their defense is simply absurd, and completely ignores history. Oh... and it might interest you to know that the statistically worst pass defense in the NFL currently belongs to the 7-0 Green Bay Packers. So... ya know... 

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current "myth": The Steelers' defense is beginning to show signs of its age, and is not the elite defense it has been for the last decade.

Truth quotient: 6. While this is true on some level, and the Steelers are getting a bit long in the tooth, this is still a top NFL defense. They still have the personnel to be relentless with the pass rush and cause havoc for most QBs. However, this year they are more susceptible to the run than I can ever remember a Steelers team being. There was a time when it was an accomplishment to rush for over 100 yards against this defense... this year they are giving up an average of 107 yards a game on the ground. Still good enough for 12th overall in the NFL, but not nearly the standard we're used to seeing. I also think they are heavily suspect in the secondary... this week's game against the Patriots will be a real test for the Steelers' defense, especially in the secondary.

Baltimore Ravens

Current "myth": Joe Flacco has perhaps been overrated.

Truth quotient: 7. I do think Flacco has been much overrated by pundits over the past few years. He's been widely considered to be just below that top tier of quarterbacks, behind Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers... but maybe along the same line as Ryan, Schaub, and maybe even Rivers. I've never bought it. Flacco has been making a living on his strong arm, but like Mark Sanchez, has always had the luxury of a punishing defense and pounding running game. His receivers see more one-on-one coverage than just about any team in the league, and he's reaped the benefits of that. Now we see when the running game struggles as it has this year and Flacco is forced to make plays, he's not capable of doing it consistently. He's a 2-read quarterback... that is, if his first 2 reads are not open, he gets flustered and panics... either holding on to the ball and getting sacked or throwing terrible passes. He's not terribly accurate and his receivers are not terribly good (outside of Anquan Boldin, who seems to have really lost a step). The Ravens have perhaps the best defense in the NFL, but right now that offense is just horrendous (that game on Monday night was simply appalling), and much of that has to do with the play of Flacco.

Cincinnati Bengals

Current "myth": Andy Dalton is the best rookie in the NFL not named "Newton". 

Truth quotient: 8. No question here. In fact if Cam Newton slips up or falters at all down the stretch, I might revise this and say he is the best rookie in the NFL period.  The great thing about Dalton is that unlike Newton, almost nothing was expected of Dalton this year. In addition, you couldn't have put him in a worse situation: a rookie QB on a team that already has a top QB, but who is retiring over a feud with ownership... on a fairly poor team with essentially no receiving corps and a running back just fresh out of prison. I mean come on! Do any of you realize at all what this kid is doing under the circumstances? In very short order he and fellow rookie AJ Green have turned the Bengals around from being, once again, the bungling laughing stock of the NFL, to being an exciting young team with some real heart and maybe even a little skill. In my mind it's nothing short of amazing and he's not getting nearly enough attention for it. Love this kid.

Cleveland Browns

Current "myth": The legend of the "Madden Cover Curse" lives on with Peyton Hillis.

Truth quotient: 7. Ok, first let me get this out of the way... I don't believe in curses... or magic or ghosts or any other human-created super-natural bunk we've invented with our hyper-active imaginations... but dammit, if I were an NFL star, there is no amount of money you could ever pay me to be seen anywhere near a Madden game cover. Curse or not, it just doesn't seem worth it to me. This of course pains me to no end because Hillis is one of my fantasy RB mainstays this year. The other one being Chris Johnson. Needless to say my fantasy team is pretty much leaning over the edge of a cliff. I can't talk about this anymore... moving on...

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

Current "myth": If Peyton Manning were on this team, they'd be at least a 10 win team. 

Truth quotient: 4. This is one of two popular themes floating around the sports ether these days in regards to the Colts. The other is the notion that Manning would block the Colts' drafting Andrew Luck should they have that first pick. I don't buy that one either, but let's stick with the "myth" I listed. Let me just say this... it had better NOT be the case that this team is 10-6 with Manning and 0-16 without him. No team should ever be that bereft of talent across the board, and if it IS the case then we need to do two things: immediately declare Manning as the greatest QB that ever lived, period... and start seriously questioning just how good an "architect" Bill Polian is. Polian has won executive of the year 5 times... and by no coincidence, all during Manning's tenure. But looking at this team, it's hard to imagine any QB... Manning, Brady, Montana, Elway, or Marino... winning more than 3 games. They have nothing at the QB position. And nothing in development at the QB position. They have no running game, and a terribly undersized defense. This is a bad team, top to bottom, with little depth. That the team can take such a precipitous drop simply by losing Manning is nothing short of total failure on the part of Polian. And what's worse for Polian, there's recent precedence to suggest such a thing shouldn't happen: the 2008 Patriots lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season and still went on to win 11 games (to perhaps become the best team ever to not make the playoffs). A well constructed team might not be a playoff contender without Manning, but you should still be able to win 5 - 7 games. This Colts team is an utter disaster, and Polian needs to take the blame for it. 

Tennessee Titans

Current "myth": Chris Johnson's holdout is the reason for his ineffective season thus far.

Truth quotient: 5. This is half true, I think. Given the complete lack of any real off-season in terms of workouts, plus a holdout right up until the first week of the season, it was clear that Johnson was rusty and not exactly in "game shape" in the first few weeks... but now in week 7, there's really no excuse for his continued lack of production. I can't figure it out. The Titans actually have a passing game for the first time in years... you would think this would actually create more space for Johnson to run in, but this hasn't been the case. Perhaps the offensive line isn't doing its job... but it's essentially the same line he ran behind last year. I'm not sure what ails Chris Johnson right now, but it's past the point where you can blame his holdout any longer... PLUS he's just KILLING my fantasy team... ugh... dammit, I'm done talking about this too... moving on... 

Houston Texans

Current "myth": THIS is finally the year the Texans break through and win the division and become a bona-fide playoff team and possible superbowl contender.

Truth quotient: 6. I still can't buy in to this team fully... they still play too inconsistently, still give up too many points on defense, and still lose games they should win. This is only made worse with the injury to Andre Johnson. Still... with the Manning-less Colts a non-factor, the Titans looking injury-bitten and like they may not be quite rounded out, and the Jaguars... well, just awful... The Texans should win the division more or less by default. They have a very good offense and an improving defense (that still gets lit up by good offenses)... but there's something about this team I'm still just not buying into yet. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current "myth": If the Jaguars stopped playing tomorrow and forfeit the rest of their games, we would barely notice... even if we lived in Jacksonville.

Truth quotient: 10. This couldn't be more true or more sad. No-one comes to their home games. They have almost no following nationally... if not for Maurice Jones-Drew they wouldn't have a single recognizable name on the team. And they are literally within a year or two of becoming the next LA football franchise. It's a sad state of affairs in JAX... 

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

Current "myth": The Chiefs have won 3 straight and might still be a threat in the division.

Truth quotient: 3.  This isn't even a conversation 3 weeks ago... and I'm still not convinced. No team looked worse than the Chiefs the first 3 weeks of the season. And you just don't go from looking THAT bad to being a contender for the division. It just doesn't happen. And let's not forget that the Chiefs' winning streak has come against the Vikings and Colts, terrible teams with 1 win between them, and the Raiders with literally no viable quarterback, immediately following the whole Carson Palmer whirlwind. This is still a pretty bad team in my opinion. Looking at their schedule I see 3 more wins for them if everything goes just right in both games against Denver and if Miami continues to tank their season. Beyond that, I don't see another win on the schedule. 

Oakland Raiders

Current "myth": Once Carson Palmer has a couple of weeks to shake off the rust and learn the offense, the Raiders will be better than they were before. 

Truth quotient: 4. I don't think Palmer is the same quarterback he was in his first few seasons... I look back at his last 3 years with the Bengals. There were some pretty good offensive teams there, behind a pretty fair offensive line. Palmer had OchoCinco still at a high level and TJ Who's-your-mama at WR and a very motivated Cedric Benson, but seemed to regress. I think the Raiders probably had to make this move... clearly Kyle Boller is not the answer... I mean unless the question is "what QB can throw a pass 75 yards from his knees... to the wrong team". But giving up even one first rounder was too much, in my opinion. I'm not worried about losing the other one... don't see it happening, frankly. Palmer isn't the savior here... I don't think he's an appreciable upgrade over Jason Campbell in all honesty. In truth, I would have taken a flyer on a player like David Garrard, who is still floating around out there without a team after getting a raw deal in Jacksonville. He would have come cheap, and cost the Raiders nothing... and lest we forget, he was a pro-bowler in 2010. 

Denver Broncos

Current "myth": Say what you want about Tebow's stats or style... all the guy does is win games, and the Broncos will win more than they lose with Tebow.

Truth quotient: 1. This is the worst story line in the NFL right now. If Tebow were ANY other quarterback he'd be getting ripped this week after that pathetic, dreadful, embarrassing performance last week, and rightfully so. Don't tell me he won the game. No, he didn't... the Dolphins ridiculous defensive calls at the end of the game and a lucky bounce on an onside kick won the game. Tebow had 24 yards passing TOTAL by the 4th quarter. I watched the replay of that game to see if I was missing something. No... I wasn't. It was as awful watching it as everyone was saying. He threw terrible balls, ugly passes, missed wide open receivers by 5 yards... looked confused and out of place. He put together one decent drive aided by a couple of great catches and was given a short field after an onside kick. Even in overtime after the defense handed him the ball at the 35 Tebow couldn't get more than 3 yards and the team had to try a very iffy 52 yarder for the win. I'm sorry, I know the Broncos won the game, but it was a terrible game against a terrible team. And if anyone thinks the Broncos are going to win more than 2 or 3 games a year with a guy like that playing QB, then they are just blinded by Tebow-lust and have pretty much forgotten everything they ever knew watching the NFL. I'm not even going to hedge on this... Tim Tebow is the worst starting quarterback I've ever seen in the NFL and will not make it through this season as the Broncos' starter. 

San Diego Chargers

Current "myth": With their 4-2 start, the Chargers have shed their "slow starter" reputation and are on track to live up to their full potential.

Truth quotient: 3. Taking a closer look at the Chargers record, you'll note that they've only played two games against decent opponents... and lost them both. Their 4 wins came against 4 of maybe the worst teams in football, and they damn near lost two of them. This last Jets game is a perfect example of the Chargers last 5 years in microcosm. They got out to a lead against a team with little to no offensive ability, then play too loose and undisciplined and let them come back... losing at the end with a complete inability to make key plays in critical situations. This is a very, very old and tired song with the Chargers, who've always had one of the most talented teams in football, personnel-wise, for the past 5 or so years. But the window with that personnel is closing rapidly and the Chargers show no signs of ever truly living up to that potential. It's been clear, to me anyhow, for years now that this is directly the fault of Norv Turner and his staff. This team will continue to play this way, I believe, until they move on from the current coaching staff.

Click here to jump to the NFC portion of the column.

NFL myths and truths... NFC

Ok... I took a couple of weeks off, but am back refreshed and recharged and ready to tackle the NFL after an interesting week 7. I will also be posting my week 8 picks column on either Thursday or Friday this week.

So... *looks around*... anything new in the last couple of weeks?

Ok, ok... here we are in week 7. And it seems that this is about the time every year (week 5 - 7) when teams start over-reacting to slow starts, over-estimating their value after fast starts, and making itchy trigger-finger decisions. This year is, of course, no different. What I like to do at this time of year is try to look at the popular myth about each team, and then identify it's proximity to the truth. So for the next two columns I'm going to list each team, pose a statement that seems to be the popular myth about that team (or some aspect of it) currently, and then rate that "myth" on a "truth quotient" scale of 1 to 10 on how close it approximates the truth, in my opinion, with 1 being far from the truth, and 10 being pretty much on target. I'll do the NFC today, and the AFC tomorrow. I'll break it down by divisions, and start with maybe the most difficult to analyze division in football: the NFC East.

NY Giants
Current "myth": The Giants seem to play to the level of their competition, and while they are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, are probably the favorite to win the division.

Truth quotient: 8.  The Giants really do seem to have this issue. They really get up for games against good teams (Philadelphia, Buffalo), but seem to sleepwalk against below average teams (Seattle, Arizona (a game they should have lost), and St. Louis... yes they won, but looked awful doing so against a really bad Rams team). The good news is that their schedule features a few more good teams in the second half, so that should keep them playing at a high level.  The "Real Redskins" are beginning to surface, the Cowboys and Eagles are going to be up and down all year... I really do think the Giants are the favorites in this division. But I could be wrong. And wouldn't be surprised a bit...

Philadelphia Eagles
Current "myth": The Eagles are an elite team that simply wilted under the pressure of the "dream team" expectations and will soon round into form as a top team.

Truth quotient: 3. No way... this Eagles team has been overrated from the start of camp. They have real issues on both offensive and defensive lines. They have a QB who, while dynamic and electrifying at times, has always made poor decisions and tried to take more than what is there... and that hasn't changed. Vick will make as many terrible throws as jaw-dropping throws in a game, and unfortunately that's not really a good ratio. He also takes a ton of punishment and will still struggle to stay healthy. On defense the team is undersized at linebacker and safety and can be run on all day. Too may major holes on this team to consider them elite. They will be better, but will still struggle to be relevant come playoff time.

Dallas Cowboys
Current "myth": Tony Romo is too inconsistent for the Cowboys to ever be considered superbowl contenders.

Truth Quotient: 6.  I mostly agree with this. Romo is wildly inconsistent... we knew this to a large degree coming in to this year, but a good NFL QB will improve things like decision making and reading defenses from year to year. Now in his 6th year as a starter, Romo shows no signs that he's improved in either of those areas. In my view, his biggest problem seems to be in reading defenses when he's forced to look past his first read. In watching him, it seems that if his first read is open, he'll usually make a good throw. Or if he's scrambling and a receiver breaks free, he'll make the throw to the open man. But if forced to read and react quickly, he seems to not fully recognize zone coverages and gets in trouble. This is a real problem for an NFL quarterback, and one I don't think Romo can overcome. That said, he's still talented enough to win games on his own at times, and if he can play within himself and make those first read throws, this team is talented and could be a real contender, if everything falls just right. I personally don't think it will.

Washington Redskins
Current "myth": The Redskins early success was done mainly with smoke and mirrors, and they are playing more or less true to who they are at this point.

Truth quotient: 8. I never really bought the 'Skins as a top team, despite their excellent play in the first 4 weeks of the season. I thought they played over their heads, faced some teams that were either not very good or not playing well that day, and relied on fairly good defense and balanced offense, while getting uncharacteristically mistake-free play from Rex Grossman. This of course didn't last and Grossman has since been benched for John Beck. Not altogether sure that's an upgrade to be honest. At the end of the day this team just isn't that talented at the skill positions. They lack experience and talent at the QB, RB, and WR position... not a good formula for sustained success. They are well coached and play hard, but eventually talent and depth win out. This is a 7-9 team. They were at the start of the year and they will be when it's all said and done.

NCF North


Chicago Bears
Current "myth": Jay Cutler looks worse than he really is at times because of a poor offensive line and the offensive scheme of pass-crazy Mike Martz.

Truth quotient: 5.  The truth about Cutler on this Bears team lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, Martz still calls plays like he's got Kurt Warner and the 1999 Rams O-Line... yes, he at times totally ignores the running game depite having a pro-bowler in Matt Forte who's having a banner year... yes, his scheme calls for routes that take a long time to develop... and yes the WR corps in Chicago is somewhat less than elite. But let's not forget that Cutler was run out of Denver when they literally had NO ONE else behind him. This has to tell you something. Cutler has a reputation for being petulant and a little spoiled. He has terribly body language and doesn't seem to possess the leadership qualities that you'd want in a franchise QB. His arm is unquestioned: he has a cannon. But he's erratic... inaccurate and often too trusting in the skill of that arm. He forces balls in to tight coverage and overthrows his receivers. He's never really learned the art of the touch throw. So while I think Martz' offensive scheme really does hurt Cutler as a QB, I think he'd struggle even in a basic drop back west coast offense with a good line.

Detroit Lions
Current "myth": The Lions' defense in general, and Ndamukong Suh specifically, play dirty.

Truth quotient: 6. I think this is partly overblown, but still true. I think the Lions' defense has begun to develop a bit of an identity... they play mean, with an edge, and aren't afraid to show it. I think Suh is probably one of those players that opponents see as dirty, but teammates see as simply vicious (reminds me of John Randall a bit in that way). And most importantly, I see this as a GOOD thing for the Lions. This was a team that just two years ago was the joke of the NFL... the cupcake on the schedule that no-one took seriously. Now they are getting a reputation as dirty bullies with a mean streak. This is clearly a good thing.

Minnesota Vikings
Current "myth": It was time to move on from Donovan McNabb and see what they have in Christian Ponder.

Truth quotient: 2. Of all the QB changes made over the last two weeks, this one is the one that makes the least sense to me. Let's forget for a moment that actually Ponder played pretty well against the defending superbowl champs... what could the thinking possibly have been with the Vikings coaching staff? Look... it's clear that the Vikings are not a playoff team this year. They have too many holes in too many places... not just at the quarterback spot. Yes, Donovan McNabb is a shell of his former self. It's clear his time is pretty much at an end. But he wasn't a TOTAL disaster. So unless you really think Ponder has the goods, as a rookie, to deliver this team into the playoffs... what are you accomplishing by throwing him into the fire as a rookie, against the Packers, no less, and completely alienating McNabb 7 games into the season in the process? The right move would have been to keep playing McNabb and let Ponder take some reps in games that are out of hand. I think you find out more about Ponder after a year of learning the position at an NFL level and then putting him in after building the offense and the playbook around his skills. All you're going to find out now is what he can do on a bad team with a confidence problem and now perhaps a divided locker room. That's how you want to evaluate your QB of the future? Really? Ponder is not NFL ready, and I think could still have learned a thing or two about playing quarterback in the NFL from McNabb, who let's not forget was once one of the top 5 QBs in this league. I don't understand this move, or what it means for this team this year. Makes no sense to me at all.

Green Bay Packers
Current "myth": This is a team that could possibly make a run at matching the Patriots perfect 2007 regular season.

Truth quotient: 3. There's a large number of analysts and hand-wringing pundits lobbying points of concern at the admittedly poor Patriots pass defense... but in case you're wondering, the Pats' pass defense actually ranks 31st in the league. Wanna guess who's 32? Yup... the Pack. This is obviously the best team in the league and the team I think will represent the NFC in the superbowl. And very well could win it. But they won't win every game in a 16 game schedule with that pass defense. It will improve, I think, but it's still susceptible enough to drop a game here or there... in fact look out for the Chargers after the bye week...

NFC South


Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Current "myth": The Bucs are showing that they were a bit of a fluke last year and are not ready to make the leap to the upper-echelon of NFL teams.

Truth quotient: 7. The Buccaneers were one of the youngest teams in the NFL last year, but overcame that youth to post an impressive record and seemed poised to make the jump to "very good" team status. This year, however, a tougher schedule and some injuries to their running backs have brought them back down to earth. What we see now is probably more what we should have realistically expected from them entering the season. This was a classic case of over-valuing a team's performance from a prior season and setting expectations that were probably unrealistic. This is still a very young team... young and aggressive. Which means they will look gang-busters at times, but will also be mistake-prone. Josh Freeman is still only in his second full season as a starter... so he will still have some growing pains. All that said, this team is still underperfoming a bit at times and seems to lose focus... a common characteristic for young teams and a challenge that Raheem Morris will have to overcome.

Atlanta Falcons
Current "myth": The big win against the Lions will put the Falcons back on track towards being a legitimate playoff contender.

Truth quotient: 4. This was indeed a big win for the Falcons. They've underachieved by any measure this year and don't look at all like the team that was the top seed in the NFC last year. The win against a good team in the Lions showed that they still do have the capability of playing at a high level, but I've outlined the reasons why I think they have been terribly overrated many times... they are a play-action team predicated on running the ball well then making big plays in the passing game off of play-action. They can't run the ball this year and teams are not playing up in the box to stop the run like they were last year, taking away much of the effectiveness of play-action. This is still a good team, but nowhere near the elite-level team most had them pegged as to start the year. They will struggle to finish at 10-6 and will be fighting for a wildcard spot with at least 3 other teams at about the same record.

Carolina Panthers
Current "myth": Cam Newton is a pro-bowl QB right now.

Truth quotient: 8. Yeah... I'm buying that. Look, in the NFC obviously you have your two top QBs in Rodgers and Brees... but after that who has outperformed Cam Newton in the NFC? Matt Ryan has had an inconsistent year, as has Jay Cutler. Eli Manning continues to be a chucker who relies on the skill of his receivers to pull his prayers out of the sky. Don't even mention Tony Romo. Matt Stafford? Ok... maybe... but are you going to tell me he's been better than Newton? No way... this guy has lit up some pretty good defenses... I had my doubts about him coming in, but I'm a believer. He makes accurate, strong throws both on the move and in the pocket. He still needs to learn to read defenses a bit better but I'd expect that from rookie. What I didn't expect was his leadership and moxie as a rookie. In my view, yes... Cam Newton is a pro-bowler now as the third QB in.

New Orleans Saints
Current "myth": The Saints are the only real threat to unseat the Packers in the NFC and go to the superbowl.

Truth quotient: 8. I think this is largely true. I look at the other top teams in the NFC: the Lions are up and coming but still a year or two away from being good enough to beat the Packers in a playoff game at Lambeau. The 49ers are playing way over their heads, but again... not a real threat to the Packers. No-one in the NFC East should scare them at all. But the Saints have just the right ingredients, I think, to upset the Packers. They have one of the 3 most prolific passing attacks in football, an all-world QB, an excellent coach, and a better than you think defense that might be able to make just enough plays to let the Saints outscore the Packers... and they have a better running game than Green Bay. So while I still think the Packers are the clear favorites, I think the Saints have the only real chance to beat them come January.

NFC West


Seattle Seahawks
Current "myth": The Seahawks have the worst offense in football.

Truth quotient: 9. Yup. With all due respect to Jacksonville, Miami, Indianapolis and St. Louis, the Seahawks have the fewest total yards in the NFL this year, and are rushing for a pathetic 80 yards per game. That's embarrassing. When the Seahawks let Matt Hassleback walk away I was ok with it, assuming they had a plan in mind to make a push for maybe Carson Palmer, or some other viable option at QB... but once they brought in Tavaris Jackson I completely lost any belief that they have the slightest clue what they are doing up there in the Pacific Northwest. I have no idea why this guy keeps getting chances at being a starting QB. He's awful. There's no two ways about it. Just flat out horrible. And he's never shown himself to ever be anything but at BEST an average backup option. I don't understand what Pete Carroll, who by all accounts is a pretty good evaluator of talent (at least a the college level) saw, or continues to see in this guy. I'd have made a stronger argument for St. Louis except that I think their problems are mainly injury related and if they were healthy and intact they'd be a much better offense, in my belief. Now... if we were talking about the worst offense in football just this week... well, that honor would go to the Baltimore Ravens, who put on the worst offensive spectacle I've seen since... well, since the Jets played Baltimore a few weeks ago. Oh my word that was unwatchable... literally...  I couldn't watch it. I actually turned the channel to watch the Iron Chef Halloween Candy battle. It was way more entertaining.

Arizona Cardinals
Current "myth": The Cardinals may have made a mistake in putting all their eggs in the "Kevin Kolb" basket.

Truth quotient: 5. I'm torn on this one. Part of me wants to agree with it... Kolb hasn't really looked like a guy who can put his team on his shoulders and carry them to the playoffs. He throws off his back foot, doesn't seem to make great reads, and gets a little jittery in the pocket. His accuracy is questionable and he hasn't learned the art of the play-action fake very well yet. He too often looks overmatched on the field. If I were a Cardinals fan, I'd be a little worried about the long term prospects with Kolb. That said, this team is really full of holes, especially on defense, where the Cards seem to have a thing for shedding talented defensive backs. Well, the result of that propensity has been one of the worst pass defenses I've ever seen. Say what you want about the Patriots and Packers' stats... the actual worst pass defense resides in the Arizona desert. Add that to a porous offensive line and a virtually non-existent running game, and I sometimes think maybe Kolb is actually doing pretty well with what he has. Bottom line, I'm not sure if I agree with this yet or not. Ask me again after the season. I'll probably be even less sure.

San Francisco 49ers
Current "myth": Coach John Harbaugh has transformed all-time draft bust Alex Smith into a legitimate NFL quarterback.

Truth quotient: 4. Not quite on this one. John Harbaugh is just a great coach, and maybe an even better motivator, but he's not literally a Genie... which is what it would take to make Alex Smith a decent NFL quarterback. What Harbaugh has done is learned to protect Smith and put him in a position to just do the basics: he never has to make more than 1 or 2 reads... he's told to get rid of the ball within a certain amount of time or throw it away... he hands the ball off to a talented stable of running backs, and he has learned not to force the ball. He is still not very accurate, or strong-armed, and doesn't possess a high football IQ, but Harbaugh knows what he has, and what he can do, and doesn't ask him to do any more. If they were to get way behind in a game, though, I don't think you could ask him to bring you back. And I think next year the Niners will still be looking for their next QB.

St. Louis Rams
Current "myth": After the Eagles, the Rams are perhaps the most disappointing team in the NFL.

Truth quotient: 7.  Honestly, I struggled to come up with a real "myth" for this team. Not only is this team a bad team, they are also completely and utterly uninteresting. So much so that I initially left them completely out of my initial post without realizing it. This is a team with zero buzz. None. And that's sort of a mystery, because they came into the year as one of the potential up-and-comers along with Detroit and Tampa Bay. Oh, how that has gone by the wayside. Earlier I mentioned Seattle as the worst offense in the NFL... well, the Rams are not really that far behind (as a side note... how bad is the NFC West? This division has been terrible for years and shows no signs of getting appreciably better. Mediocrity of this magnitude for this prolonged a period of time is not supposed to happen in today's NFL. It's bizarre to me). Honestly I can't really put my finger on exactly why this team is this bad. They have some good pieces on defense, a true franchise QB in Sam Bradford, and the makings of a fairly decent running game. True, they have injuries at the WR and RB position... but this team has been rebuilding for several years now, and here's where I come down: despite having several years of high draft picks, the Rams have failed utterly at building depth through the middle of their roster. And they don't seem to have a real identity either offensively or defensively. Bottom line: I think the front office and coaching staff are not getting the job done here.

Click here to jump to the AFC portion of this column.

NFL: Week 5 Accounting

Week 5 is behind us, and my reality is beginning to crumble. Like Mr. Anderson in "The Matrix", I'm not entirely sure if I'm dreaming or awake. I watched the games this weekend, but was what I saw real? Some things seemed to follow the normal logic I've become accustomed to... they made sense... they fit the reality I've come to know. But others things seem completely and wholly unlikely... even impossible. For example, while I watched the best team in the NFL overcome a bad 1st quarter to fairly easily run over the over-matched Falcons... and while I watched the Patriots put up another 30 points on a very good defense... and while I witnessed the Chargers yet again struggle to beat an inferior opponent early in the season, you know, things I expected and have come to accept as reality... I also witnessed an offense led by Alex Smith score 5 touchdowns and blow out a decent team en route to a 4-1 record and sole possession of first place in the NFC West. I saw a bad team (Denver) replace their quarterback, put in a guy who completed less than half his passes, none of which traveled more than 10 yards in the air, for 79 total yards, lose the game at home, and have their fans celebrating like they'd won. I saw one of the worst offenses in the NFL (Seattle) put up over 400 yards on the road against what was considered a pretty good defense, and win by over 10 points. I saw a team of veritable superstars outplayed, out-hustled, and out-coached... in 85 degree weather... in Buffalo... in mid-October. And I gazed upon a Detroit Lions team that three years ago went an entire season without a single win, standing as one of the last two undefeated teams in the NFL.

Clearly I have slipped into some sort of subconscious or alternate state of reality. Like in the movie "Inception", I must initiate a "kick" to bring me back to reality... but before I throw myself off a building, here's the recap of my picks for week 5 (correct picks in green, incorrect in red):

Bills (+3) 31, Eagles 24
I'm going to spend a couple of minutes on this one because I have some interesting viewpoints on both these teams. First... look, it's been talked to death. The Eagles are in trouble. We know. What's surprising to me is how many people are surprised by this. If you look waaaaay back at my NFC East preview column you'll see that I was not sold on this "Dream Team". The pieces they bought in the off-season were big splashes, but not the pieces they actually needed to address. What they needed was help on the offensive and defensive lines. Especially the Offensive line. It's terrible. Vick is getting hit on almost every play. However this has always been the issue with Vick. To be honest I'm not sure how much of the fault lies with the line and how much lies with Vick and his style of play. About half of the plays Vick runs are improvisation. How does the line block for that? O-Lines in the NFL can hold back a pass rush for 3 seconds... maybe 5 if they are pro-bowl players... but after that the defense will be past them. Vick has the ball at least that long every time he drops back, because he relies on his running ability to extend the play. So when he drops back he might have the ball for up to 10 seconds. How can the line sustain that play after play? They can't. And outside of a post or fly route, what kind of routes can you call for a guy who's got the ball for 5, 6, 10 seconds every snap? Andy Reid is a west-coast offense coach. He can adapt, and has, but at the end of the day he still draws up plays that use passing routes that are designed to be completed within 3 - 5 seconds of the snap of the ball. After that it's just backyard football and hope someone gets open enough. But in the NFL where the defense is just as athletic as the offense, this just doesn't work. Coaches in the NFL have film... and the film on Vick and this offense is out, and has been widely distributed. You don't call aggressive blitzes... you play 3 or 4 down linemen and let the play develop... play run gaps to stop the run, and if it's not a run wait for Vick to choose a direction and then release and attack. You drop 6 DBs into a zone, play a deep safety to take away Jackson's deep posts, and make Vick, who has never been good at reading defenses, force the ball into the underneath zones where your LBs and safeties can undercut routes. This has now worked in 3 consecutive weeks, as the Bills employed the same defense against Vick and the Eagles as the Niners and Giants. If the Eagles are going to have any success on offense now that the blueprint is out, he's going to have to fundamentally change Vick and this offense, and I'm just not sure that's possible at this point.

Ok, on the the Bills... Look, I don't want to take a thing away from this team, but man, they are playing on the edge... and have been every week since week 2. They are way better than anyone expected and should be given credit, but now they're looking to be seen as one of the elite teams in the NFL, and in that light they have some serious issues. Most notably on defense. They have the third-worst defense statistically in the NFL. (before you all scream about the fact the the Patriots have the statistically worst defense, I'll remind you that all stats are not equal. The Pats are not playing in nip-and-tuck, close games... they are generally jumping out to leads and forcing teams to throw all over the field. You'll note that the Pats are actually pretty good against the run (13th), This is not the case with the Bills, who are giving up huge yards both on the ground and in the air, in generally close games or games they are behind in. I'm not saying the Pats' defense is good... they are pretty weak overall, but this Bills defense troubles me much more for those reasons). The Bills are winning games right now for one reason and one reason only: turnovers. The Bills are averaging almost 4 turnovers a game... a pace that statistically simply can not continue. They had 3 against the Chiefs, 2 against the Raiders, 4 against the Pats, 2 against the Bengals and 5 against the Eagles. The last 4 games for the Bills have been decided by 3 points 3 times and seven points once. And here's the most important factor: in 3 out of the Bills' 5 games they've had an interception return for a touchdown. You simply can't count on those plays week in and week out.  I'll also point out that the Bills' have only faced one opponent with a statistically good defense: The Bengals. And they lost that game while looking very pedestrian on offense. So while I'm still very impressed with the Bills, I still also see reasons for concerns over the long term.

Chiefs (+1) 28, Colts 24
I said at the time I was concerned about this pick. And I was right to be. The Chiefs got a whif of confidence and remembered they actually won a bunch of games last year, and the Colts are just not very good on either side of the ball right now. It's amazing... I've never seen a team so completely built around a single player on BOTH sides of the ball as this Colts team. Their offense is built specifically around Manning and his ability to read defenses, change plays at the line, and call the perfect play for any given situation. He doesn't need a ton of talent to get the most out of his offense. And you can clearly see that outside of Reggie Wayne, there really isn't much talent on this team offensively... yet with Manning I'd bet they are 3-2 at worst right now. And on defense, they are clearly built to play with the leads Manning usually provides: small and fast, built to rush the passer and not be concerned with the running game as a primary weapon. This defense doesn't work as well when the offense struggles to put up points. So this Colts team is clearly going to finish with a very bad record... and if it's bad enough for the first pick (I don't think so... I think that will go to Miami or Jacksonville), what do you do? There you have Andrew Luck... the last time a QB came into the NFL with as many pure, polished, NFL-ready measurables, the Colts grabbed him with the first pick in the 1998 draft. By all accounts Luck is a once in a generation franchise QB. And Manning is 36 and coming off several neck surgeries. At this point we don't know what the impact might be on the rest of his career. If I knew Peyton was coming back and would be the QB he has been, I'd expect 3 - 5 more years of top level QB play, and the choice would be easy. I'd package the no. 1 pick to the highest bidder for a boatload of picks (two no. 1's, two no. 2's at least) and build a better support system around the team for a run at at least 2 or 3 more championships... but what if Manning's future is still up in the air come draft time? What do you do? Honestly, it's a pretty damn good problem to have and I frankly hate the Colts all the more for their dumb lu-... err... fortune.

Vikings (-3) 34, Cardinals 10
You laughed at my last line in my picks column, didn't you. Yeah, well... even in clear exaggeration for comical emphasis I was almost right. Peterson ran over, around and through the wet toilet paper that is the Cardinals defense. I don't care what the statistics say, this is the worst defense in the NFL right now. And it's not close. The best thing the Cardinals have going for them is that they won't have to play the Packers, Patriots or Saints this year. Records would likely be smashed. In other news around this game, Donovan McNabb should donate his game check to Peterson, because no-one will be talking about how below-average McNabb was again in this game, so he'll likely keep his job one more week.

Seahawks (+10) 36, Giants 25
Why do people keep making excuses for Eli Manning's mistakes? He threw 25 interceptions last year, yet mostly what we heard was about how his receiving corps let him down or tipped balls hurt blah blah blah... and here we are again, the Giants offense underachieving, and after 5 games Eli has thrown 5 picks and lost 3 fumbles. Yet once again, I hear excuses being made... Victor Cruz tipped the ball right to a defender (even Eli couldn't bring himself to accept responsibility in his post-game press conference, again blaming the "tipped ball"... even he's believing his own hype). OK... fine... but the ball was thrown away from Cruz into triple coverage on the outside where if it is picked there is no-one to stop the defender. The ball should never have been thrown. The first interception was a poor throw off his back foot where Eli didn't read the safety coming over the top. And the other interception was also a tipped ball, but again thrown into double coverage with a safety directly trailing the play. These are throws the Eli consistently tries to make... pressing the ball into tight coverage while not being all that accurate. I'm going to call it what it is: Eli is a chucker. He was in college and he is now. He's got a great arm, but he has always made a habit of simply chucking a ball and relying on his receivers to make great plays (like Cruz made on a badly underthrown ball for a touchdown... that should have been picked too). Unfortunately he hasn't had too many great receivers in the past few years to rescue his thrown prayers. I have never bought into Eli as an elite QB, and the last year and 5 weeks just keep confirming what I already knew. Eli is a chucker, and if he doesn't have tall, athletic receivers bailing him out, will continue to make bad throws and interceptions. I said in my picks column that I wasn't sure how god the Giants were... well, honestly I'm still not sure. They had no business losing this game at home to a bad team, but they did put up some gawdy offensive numbers. I think this is an 8-8 team at this point... maybe 9-7.

Steelers (-3.5) 38, Titans 17
And believe me, folks... the game wasn't as close as the score. After four weeks the Titans really had me believing. They were playing good defense, and were balanced on offense. They looked like a tough out, while the Steelers seemed to be reeling a bit. But, like about 3 or 4 other teams in the NFL this year, the Steelers are a Jekyll and Hyde team. This week they were dominant on both sides of the ball and the Titans looked inept. I don't take much from this game at this time other than the Titans just had one of those games. It happens... I'm not sure what it means for the Steelers, though... I think ultimately they are still flawed. They aren't playing to their identity, running the ball and stifling defense, consistently right now. Maybe that changes... they've got a couple of cupcake games coming up against the Jags and Cards, before taking on the Patriots, so they have a chance to really correct some holes.

Saints (-7) 30, Panthers 27
The Panthers might lose more games by less than a touchdown than any team in history this season... and believe it or not, that's a compliment. This team, with holes all over the defense, a poor O-line, and very little running game and a raw rookie QB with only a year of experience as a starter in college, has no business being right in these games against the likes of the Packers, Bears and Saints... that they are is nothing less than a testament to the skill and competitive drive of one Cam Newton. The Panthers are the king of the back-door cover, and I will keep taking them as long as Vegas keeps making them 7 point dogs. As for the Saints, they need to start closing out games more authoritatively... they are just a couple plays away from being 2-3 and could easily have lost this one.

Bengals (+3) 30, Jaguars 20
As I said in my picks column, I still have no idea why the Jags were favored in this game. The Bengals are one of the better "good bad teams" in the NFL right now, and I really like AJ Green. That dude's gonna be a good receiver in this league for a long time... looks a lot like Andre Johnson to me. And truthfully, Bengals ownership looks even dumber than ever for not trading Carson Palmer. It's clear Andy Dalton is going to be at least a pretty good QB in this league, and had they traded Palmer they could have added a couple more pieces around him (maybe O-Line help) and in 2 years this team could really be dangerous. As it is, they are just not deep enough or talented enough yet to be considered a real threat. The Jaguars are just almost unwatchable. Just ask people in Jacksonville.

Raiders (+6) 25, Texans 20
Had I known about the death of Al Davis before I posted the picks column, I would have likely put real money down on this game. The Raiders were already going to be tough enough to beat without the added "spiritual motivation" that always gives teams an extra boost. The Raiders aren't going to make any noise in the playoffs or anything, but they are a team going in the right direction. I still don't like their QB situation... but imagine this team if, say, Carson Palmer suddenly dropped into their lap? Could happen... I'll be interested to see how the passing of Al Davis impacts the Raiders down the road in the off-season. I've long believed that good free agents haven't gone to Oakland because of Davis at this point... wonder if that changes with him passing. We'll see. And if you are Houston... look... you can't continue to ask to be taken seriously and lose these games at home. Yes, the Raiders are a tough team... yes, they had a little extra motivation. Doesn't matter. These games are statement games... chances for you to rise up and serve notice. Elite teams don't lose these games... yet year after year the Texans always seem to lose these games. This is why I can't buy into them and take them seriously as contenders.

49ers (-3) 48, Buccaneers 3
Yikes. Tampa Bay has got to be the most disappointing team in the NFL this year, don't they? This was the sexy pick before the season... the team everyone thought was on the cusp... ready to make the jump... they had young talent, speed, and a gifted young athlete at quarterback. And they've really fallen apart in a hurry. It's bad enough to get whupped by, let's face it, despite the record, what is widely considered a mediocre team. But you score 3 points. Total. In the first quarter. I honestly don't know what's wrong with the Bucs... can't put my finger on it but they really haven't looked right this year at all. And look, it's pretty clear the difference in the 49ers right now. It's coaching, plain and simple. Jim Harbaugh can coach. Period. The Niners played a well balanced, well executed game... they were coached up. I joked about Alex Smith earlier, but the truth is he's not being asked to carry this team. Jim Harbaugh knows he can't win doing that, so he asks him to do only so much. Make quick reads... take open receivers, throw the ball away in a hurry if it's not there. And Smith is doing what he's asked. Smith's numbers won't jump out at you, but the Niners run the ball well and play solid defense, so he doesn't need to do much more than manage the game. They will struggle against the better teams, but they're a much better team than they were a year ago and in my view, that's mainly due to coaching.

Chargers (-4) 29, Broncos 24
OK, Denver fans. You got what you wanted. Say hello to the Tim Tebow era. Honestly, fans sometimes just make me shake my head. There is nothing... NOTHING that anyone could have possibly seen at the pro level from this guy to make ANYONE believe he's going to be a viable starting NFL QB. But he was a college legend, the Broncos have been awful for years so the fans are desperate for a hero, and he's also overtly religious, which you can never underestimate the power of in the good ol' USA, especially in the mid-west. I think fans genuinely believe God will take this mechanically poor, inaccurate, wildly inconsistent thrower and miracle him into a super-bowl winner overnight. I'm here to tell you, Bronco fans... it ain't gonna happen. (I remember as a Patriots fan in the mid-90's fans were getting frustrated with Bledsoe and were clamoring for college phenom and pre-season star Michael Bishop... same kind of QB... let's just say I think we're all glad the coaches never gave in to that fan pressure). I think John Fox has basically thrown his hands up, and has gotten sick of the local fans and media insisting they know more than he does. So he's opening up Pandora's box and will sit back and let this disaster unfold. Oh, there will be some exciting moments for sure. Tebow will make some dazzling plays... escaping the pocket and hitting wide-open receivers occasionally, running for first-downs while diving head first. He might even steal a game or two against average opponents on his legs and guile alone. But on balance, he will be what he is. He will make horrible throws, miss receivers, throw bad interceptions, take hard hits too often, and it will take probably a full season of this before fans and True Believers finally acquiesce and admit maybe he's just not that good. What should be really interesting is if Tebow plays just well enough to win a game or two, and is regularly exciting enough... and the Broncos wind up with that first pick and a chance at Andrew Luck. We might actually see an honest to goodness holy war break out in the State of Colorado.

I should also mention here that the Chargers continue to underperform. Really this should never have been this close. Just don't like the way that team plays so inconsistently.

Patriots (-8) 30, Jets 21
Would have been a score higher if not for Aaron Hernandez letting a ball right at him in the endzone go right through his hands and into a defender's hands just before the half. The score isn't really indicative of how inept the Jets are on offense. They had two drives of any real consequence in this game. The third score came after an 88 yard kickoff return that set them up at the 18. This was not as close a contest as it should have been given the expectations of the Jets this season... and in almost surreal fashion, the Jets were talking about moral victories after the game, like a team that never expected to win in the first place might do. I expected them to be mad... angry... truculent... acting like the better team didn't win. But they didn't. They just... accepted it as if it were a foregone conclusion. This Jets team thrives on its swagger and confidence, a direct extension of the coach, but they left Foxborough a beaten team bereft of any swagger. I don't like the vibe of this team right now. Rex has gotten it turned around in a hurry there before, but something about this team feels different. I'm not sure they can turn it around this year. The Patriots, meanwhile, are starting to hit a stride, I think. I never did think their defense was as bad as the stats showed, nor as bad as the pundits were claiming. This is not a great defense by any stretch, but they play the scheme very well. They carry out the game plan and do it with success. The plan was to limit the running game and get off the field on third down, and they did that very well Sunday. When they get healthy, I think they will be a pretty good defense... certainly good enough to win with in the playoffs. I still would like to see them get some CB help, though. Just not sure there's much out there. On the offensive side it's getting rather silly. I mean, the Jets defense actually played pretty well I thought, on balance. The Pats didn't score on their opening drive for the first time all year, they turned the ball over in the red zone and struggled a bit at times... and yet they once again put up 30 points and over 400 yards of offense and made it look effortless. It's a real joy watching this team operate on offense. And now that they've found a true "thunder and lightening" inside-outside running combo with Green-Ellis and Ridley, they are going to be even tougher to defend.

Packers (-6) 25, Falcons 14
Not much to say here that I didn't already say in my picks column. Ho-hum win for the Pack... got off to a slow start but were never really in danger of losing this game... and that right there is the sign of a championship team: when you watch them go down by two touchdowns in the first quarter and never ever think for a moment that they might actually lose the game. I will also add that I've never seen any QB, ever... not Favre, not Steve Young, throw the ball on the run with so little effort and so much zip and accuracy as Aaron Rodgers. I think Tom Brady is the best QB in football, and might be the best of all time, but Rodgers has just incredible ability in that arm and does things on the move that Brady couldn't dream of doing. When Brady retires, this guy is the best in the NFL and it's not even close.

Lions (-6) 24, Bears 13
Lions are good. Bears are not. And Mike Martz is going to be arrested for being an accomplice to murder when they scrape Jay Cutler's deceased carcass of the filed at some point. There are only two QBs I've ever seen with a release quick enough to play in Martz' "zero-protection" style offense: Kurt Warner and Dan Marino. Jay Cutler isn't close to either of those guys. Martz needs to go before Cutler gets really hurt. I'm serious.

Record this week: 8-5

NFL Week 5 Picks

Onward to week 5 in the NFL, and an interesting slate of games. Teams will start to assert themselves as being worthy of being taken seriously or not... Was last week's loss to the Bengals and Rookie QB Andy Dalton an aberration or simply the Bills' coming back to the middle of the pack where they really belong? And is Cincinnati worthy of some attention as being better than we thought? Can the Manning-less Colts get off the schnide against the seemingly hapless Chiefs? Or was last week's win the start of KC righting the ship? How long do the Vikings stay with Donovan? How will Houston fare against a team that can push them around on the ground? Will the other players in my fantasy league remember that bye-weeks start this week?

Trust me, I have no idea... but I'll give it my best shot. The only thing I know for sure is that Tony Romo won't throw any game-killing, soul-crushing INT's this week. Or maybe I shouldn't be so sure of that... Anyhow, on to the picks! Home teams are in CAPS.

Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO
I actually do think this Bills team is pretty good. And I almost went with them, getting points at home against a desperate Philly team. But then I repeated to myself that this is a desperate Philly team. And while Buffalo is pretty good, they aren't as good as people were thinking at 3-0. Philly has too much talent to lose like they have been every week. Buffalo has issues in their secondary. I think Philly plays mad and runs up a pretty good score. Would not be surprised at all though to find out I was dead wrong on this. Oh... and it might interest all you Mike Vick fans to know that Vick is now below .500 as the Eagles starting QB. Let's see... Vick playing the role of tantalizing talent... plays that make you gasp... looks unbeatable at times, and yet somehow loses more often than he wins, seems to make mistakes at the worst possible times, hurt too often... where have I heard this song before? Can any Falcons fans out there tell me if this sounds familiar to you?

INDIANAPOLIS (-1) over Kansas City
I went back and forth on this game several times. And again, I think if it were Kerry Collins starting this would be a much easier call for me. In the end I think Indy manages to pull out a close, low scoring game at home. But I don't feel great about it... dammit I hate this week already.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Arizona
This might be Donovan McNabb's last chance to show he has anything left and keep what might be his last starting QB gig in the NFL. And I think he will. This Minnesota team could easily be 3-1 right now if they had any ability to hold on to a lead. Against the awful Cardinals defense I think the Vikes will jump out to an early lead, and unlike prior games, will hold on to it. Look at Adrian Peterson to carry the ball about 60 times for approximately 350 yards. What... you think that can't happen?

NY GIANTS (-10) over Seattle
Yeah, I know... 10 points is a lot, and I've been regularly saying how much I doubt how good the Giants are. But here's a couple of things I do know: If nothing else, the Giants can still get after the QB. And last I checked, Tavaris Jackson is still at the helm for Seattle. The G-Men will be on him all day like stink on an ape. Seattle will be lucky to score 10. Take the points.

Tennessee (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
This line has dropped like a stone this week from 6.5 to 3.5, which would be normal if there were some serious injury to a critical player. The injury to Harrison does hurt, but not enough to drop this line 3 points in a matter of days. What likely happened is that when Vegas released the line, so much cake was being dropped on Tennessee they were forced to adjust the line... and rightfully so. This Steelers' team is in trouble. They can't run the ball and they can't protect Big Ben, and their defense isn't what it used to be, especially in the backfield. The Titans are a pretty damn good defensive team, and have one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL, even without Kenny Britt. This line might be a pick 'em by Sunday. I'll take the 3.5 today and the Titans on the road.

CAROLINA (+7) over New Orleans
I'm on-board with Cam Newton as a legit NFL future star. He's got his issues, like any rookie, but the kid can chuck it. New Orleans is one of those "dome teams" like Atlanta, Indianapolis (the Manning version) and Philly (yeah, I know they don't play in a dome, but they have a team that was built to... which is sort of dumb when you think about it). They do well on fast surfaces with the noise of their indoor crowd. While there isn't another monsoon scheduled in Carolina, the playing surface will level out the field a bit between these two. I still like the Saints to win this game, but Cam's Cats will keep it close again and cover. Erm.. ok... I promise I will never use the phrase "Cam's Cats" again. I'm so ashamed...

Cincinnati (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
There's one of these lines every week it seems... a team that is favored for no reason I can possibly discern. It seems Vegas doesn't think much of the Bengals. Frankly I don't either, but I do think enough of them to think they can beat Blane Gabbart and the Puddy-tats. The Bengals' defense is better than you think... and here's a challenge for you: name any two receivers on the Jag's... heck, name any ONE. Couldn't do it? You're not alone. I'll take the Bengals on the road (and you can count on one finger the number of times you'll likely hear me say that again this year).

Oakland (+6) over HOUSTON
OK... repeat after me one more time... I will NOT be sucked in to thinking this Texans' team is really that good. The Raiders do one thing very well: run the ball. Houston can be run on. I think the Raiders can push the Texans around a bit on offense. And without Andre Johnson, the Texans' passing attack isn't nearly as threatening. I'll take Oakland for cover and the outright win. (hmmm... i'm just looking back over my picks so far, and it's beginning to occur to me that this could be a very ugly week for me... at least three times I've already said to myself "no... did I really pick that?" This could get messy... stay tuned.)

Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
If you had predicted this line at the beginning of the season I'd have asked you if Josh Freeman was planning on tearing his ACL in week 1. Tampa has really lost some respect from Vegas with below expectation performances thus far, but if you ask me, favoring the Niners in this game means trusting Alex Smith to put together 3 straight very good performances... this time against a decent defense. And we're really not ready to go there... right? Right? Oh please don't tell me I have to live in a world where Alex Smith has become a solid starting QB... nothing in my world will make sense after that.

San Diego (-4) over DENVER
Truthfully, of all the "obvious" games this week, this one scares me the most. I just have a strange feeling this is going to be one of those inexplicable games Denver seems to have every year where Kyle Orton goes nuts for 375 yards and 4 TDs and the Broncos score 45 points. So while I'm going to take the "obvious" pick here and go with the Chargers getting less than a touchdown against what should be a lesser team in Denver, I don't feel good about it. Hell, just add this game to the long list of games I don't feel good about this week. Actually, though... I'm kind of looking forward to watching the entire city of Denver go completely apoplectic when the Broncos struggle and John Fox finally does pull Kyle Orton... and puts in Brady Quinn. Can we make this happen? Please? Oh pleeeeease?

NY Jets (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
Augh... oww... owwwww... OOOOWWWWWW. That hurt. DAMMIT but that hurt. Ok... shake it off. You're a pro. Suck it up, take a deep breath and get on with the rationale... OK, so... here it is: the Jets struggled mightily last week against the Ravens defense and just looked awful. But their defense played pretty damn well. And this Patriots defense is nowhere near the same caliber of the Raven's. So, even though Mark Sanchez is still playing like a rookie in year 3, and even though the Jets' offensive line is awful (especially if Mangold is still unable to come back), and even though this game is at Gillette, where Brady hasn't lost a regular season game in like 30 years, and even though the Pats seem to have found a running game, and even though the Jets don't seem to be able to run the ball and control the clock... wait... what the HELL am I doing? Hold on...

NEW ENGLAND (-8) over NY Jets
Ahhhhhhh... there. MUCH better. Yes... I can sleep in peace now.

Green Bay (-6) over ATLANTA
I just don't see any way Atlanta, now pretty well exposed as being way over-rated at the start of the season, can keep up with a Green Bay team that started clicking on all cylinders about half way through their week 3 game. And while there was a Roddy White sighting last week, I think Matt Ryan is going to be getting a great look at the underside of the Georgia Dome roof for a good portion of this game. Take the Pack and give the points.

DETROIT (-6) over Chicago
I think Ndamukong Suh should play a little game... I'm pretty sure Jay Cutler doesn't know how to spell his name, so I think Suh should yell a letter of his name at the smug-pussed QB every time he drills him into the Ford Field turf. "ENNNNN!!!!", "DEEEEE!!!", "AAAAEEEE"!!!!, etc... And after the ninth letter is screeched at him somewhere in the middle of the third quarter he should calmly say "that's how you spell 'Ndamukong'... now you know dat".