Onward to the picks... as always, the picks are against the spread and home teams are in CAPS.
TENNESSEE (+9) over Indianapolis
The Titans took a pretty good beating from the Texans last week, and I fear they may be reeling a bit. But the Colts are just a terrible team and the Andrew Luck / Peyton Manning conundrum is on full alert. If this game, with this line, were in Indy I might me tempted to take the Colts, but I think the Titans cover at home without much trouble.
New Orleans (+14) over ST. LOUIS
Sorry, Vegas... you can't make this spread high enough to get me to take the Rams here. Saints are hitting their stride on offense, and the Rams have virtually no offense to speak of. Sounds like a bad combination for the Rams to me.
Miami (-10) over NY GIANTS
Remember in my previous column how I talked about the Giants tending to play to their competition? I think this week will provide a perfect example. Giants win but allow the Dolphins to hang around with bad turnovers... in typical Giants fashion... and Miami covers.
CAROLINA (+3.5) over Minnesota
Cam Newton and the Panthers' offense will put up 28 or more on the Minnesota defense, which should be more than enough to handle the Vikings and rookie QB Ponder.
Arizona (-13) over BALTIMORE
No team that has EVER played as crappy as as the Ravens did this past Monday night should EVER be given the benefit of a 13 point spread over anyone. Period. And honestly, are you going to tell me that Arizona as that much worse a team than Jacksonville? Baltimore should win this game, but 13 is too many points for me.
Jacksonville (-10) over HOUSTON
This is exactly the type of game Houston typically struggles in and winds up losing... a home game against an inferior opponent directly following a huge win on the road against a division rival. This has let down written all over it... and the Jags showed some defensive spunk last week against the Ravens. And I'll keep picking against the Texans in these types of games until they prove me wrong. I don't feel great about it, but I'll take Jacksonville to cover.
BUFFALO (+6) over Washington
The sheen has started to rub off this Redskins team a bit and they have struggled of late. Shanahan pulled the rug out from Rex Grossman pretty quickly (not that I blame him, honestly)... I think the combination of John Beck going up against an opportunistic Bills' defense in his first start in a very long time is a recipe for many turnovers. Plus, the Bills are a much better team at home. I'll give the points and take the Bills.
Detroit (-3) over DENVER
Seriously? Three points? We all saw that game against Miami last week... right? I mean, we didn't just imagine it, right? Tim Tebow... 24 TOTAL yards passing by the 4th quarter... and the Lions are getting 3 points? I know Stafford hurt his ankle, but he practiced with the first team on Thursday and appears to be fine... maybe the line will adjust by Sunday, but at the moment it's remarkably still sitting at 3 points. I might actually have to go put real money down on this. (kidding... gambling is wrong, kids).
New England (+3) over PITTSBURGH
Oh, how I hate the sports media sometimes. Through no fault of their own, the Patriots come in to Pittsburgh to face a team that's going to feel they have something to prove, after a week of media saturation about Brady's success against them and the Patriots overall dominance in this series of late. The Patriots, of course, have said nothing to encourage such rhetoric, but the Steelers are going to feel like they did anyhow. And so media-aided motivation will be with the Steelers, at home. Which as a Pats fan just pisses me off to no end. Curse you, ESPN! That said, the game will come down to the Pats offense vs. the Steelers' defense... and that's a matchup I think the Patriots should win rather easily. In addition, the Patriots' defense is playing better and getting healthier, with Ron Brace returning to add some depth to an already pretty deep defensive line. If this line were to move another few points I might change my mind, but at 3 I'll give the points and take the Pats.
Cleveland (-9) over SAN FRANCISCO
The Niners are playing a bit over their heads right now, and even with Peyton Hillis questionable, the Browns aren't bad enough to lay 9 points, even with the game at San Fran. The Browns have a pretty decent defense and I think this game will be low scoring and fairly close.
Cincinnati (+3) over SEATTLE
This is a weird line. It actually opened with Cincy getting 2.5 from Seattle, and I'm not entirely sure why or what moved the line the other way. Either way, there are few teams I can think of that I'd favor Seattle over, home or away, and the Bengals aren't one of them. Take the points and the Bengals.
PHILADELPHIA (+3.5) over Dallas
While I don't like Philly right now, I like even less the way Dallas played in their loss to New England... I heard a lot of analysts talking about that game and how Dallas should have won it. Those people obviously didn't watch the game. The Patriots flat out owned them, and if not for a few bad turnovers it wouldn't have even been close. I like Philly here at home.
San Diego (+4) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs have won three straight, but let's be honest, against pretty bad teams (Oakland had no viable QB last week... I'm giving them a pass on that one). San Diego is doing it's typical job of under-achieving under Norv Turner. Still, I think this KC team is... ummm... not good. So I'll take the Chargers on the road.
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