So... *looks around*... anything new in the last couple of weeks?
Ok, ok... here we are in week 7. And it seems that this is about the time every year (week 5 - 7) when teams start over-reacting to slow starts, over-estimating their value after fast starts, and making itchy trigger-finger decisions. This year is, of course, no different. What I like to do at this time of year is try to look at the popular myth about each team, and then identify it's proximity to the truth. So for the next two columns I'm going to list each team, pose a statement that seems to be the popular myth about that team (or some aspect of it) currently, and then rate that "myth" on a "truth quotient" scale of 1 to 10 on how close it approximates the truth, in my opinion, with 1 being far from the truth, and 10 being pretty much on target. I'll do the NFC today, and the AFC tomorrow. I'll break it down by divisions, and start with maybe the most difficult to analyze division in football: the NFC East.
NY Giants
Current "myth": The Giants seem to play to the level of their competition, and while they are inconsistent on both sides of the ball, are probably the favorite to win the division.
Truth quotient: 8. The Giants really do seem to have this issue. They really get up for games against good teams (Philadelphia, Buffalo), but seem to sleepwalk against below average teams (Seattle, Arizona (a game they should have lost), and St. Louis... yes they won, but looked awful doing so against a really bad Rams team). The good news is that their schedule features a few more good teams in the second half, so that should keep them playing at a high level. The "Real Redskins" are beginning to surface, the Cowboys and Eagles are going to be up and down all year... I really do think the Giants are the favorites in this division. But I could be wrong. And wouldn't be surprised a bit...
Philadelphia Eagles
Current "myth": The Eagles are an elite team that simply wilted under the pressure of the "dream team" expectations and will soon round into form as a top team.
Truth quotient: 3. No way... this Eagles team has been overrated from the start of camp. They have real issues on both offensive and defensive lines. They have a QB who, while dynamic and electrifying at times, has always made poor decisions and tried to take more than what is there... and that hasn't changed. Vick will make as many terrible throws as jaw-dropping throws in a game, and unfortunately that's not really a good ratio. He also takes a ton of punishment and will still struggle to stay healthy. On defense the team is undersized at linebacker and safety and can be run on all day. Too may major holes on this team to consider them elite. They will be better, but will still struggle to be relevant come playoff time.
Dallas Cowboys
Current "myth": Tony Romo is too inconsistent for the Cowboys to ever be considered superbowl contenders.
Truth Quotient: 6. I mostly agree with this. Romo is wildly inconsistent... we knew this to a large degree coming in to this year, but a good NFL QB will improve things like decision making and reading defenses from year to year. Now in his 6th year as a starter, Romo shows no signs that he's improved in either of those areas. In my view, his biggest problem seems to be in reading defenses when he's forced to look past his first read. In watching him, it seems that if his first read is open, he'll usually make a good throw. Or if he's scrambling and a receiver breaks free, he'll make the throw to the open man. But if forced to read and react quickly, he seems to not fully recognize zone coverages and gets in trouble. This is a real problem for an NFL quarterback, and one I don't think Romo can overcome. That said, he's still talented enough to win games on his own at times, and if he can play within himself and make those first read throws, this team is talented and could be a real contender, if everything falls just right. I personally don't think it will.
Washington Redskins
Current "myth": The Redskins early success was done mainly with smoke and mirrors, and they are playing more or less true to who they are at this point.
Truth quotient: 8. I never really bought the 'Skins as a top team, despite their excellent play in the first 4 weeks of the season. I thought they played over their heads, faced some teams that were either not very good or not playing well that day, and relied on fairly good defense and balanced offense, while getting uncharacteristically mistake-free play from Rex Grossman. This of course didn't last and Grossman has since been benched for John Beck. Not altogether sure that's an upgrade to be honest. At the end of the day this team just isn't that talented at the skill positions. They lack experience and talent at the QB, RB, and WR position... not a good formula for sustained success. They are well coached and play hard, but eventually talent and depth win out. This is a 7-9 team. They were at the start of the year and they will be when it's all said and done.
NCF North
Chicago Bears
Current "myth": Jay Cutler looks worse than he really is at times because of a poor offensive line and the offensive scheme of pass-crazy Mike Martz.
Truth quotient: 5. The truth about Cutler on this Bears team lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, Martz still calls plays like he's got Kurt Warner and the 1999 Rams O-Line... yes, he at times totally ignores the running game depite having a pro-bowler in Matt Forte who's having a banner year... yes, his scheme calls for routes that take a long time to develop... and yes the WR corps in Chicago is somewhat less than elite. But let's not forget that Cutler was run out of Denver when they literally had NO ONE else behind him. This has to tell you something. Cutler has a reputation for being petulant and a little spoiled. He has terribly body language and doesn't seem to possess the leadership qualities that you'd want in a franchise QB. His arm is unquestioned: he has a cannon. But he's erratic... inaccurate and often too trusting in the skill of that arm. He forces balls in to tight coverage and overthrows his receivers. He's never really learned the art of the touch throw. So while I think Martz' offensive scheme really does hurt Cutler as a QB, I think he'd struggle even in a basic drop back west coast offense with a good line.
Detroit Lions
Current "myth": The Lions' defense in general, and Ndamukong Suh specifically, play dirty.
Truth quotient: 6. I think this is partly overblown, but still true. I think the Lions' defense has begun to develop a bit of an identity... they play mean, with an edge, and aren't afraid to show it. I think Suh is probably one of those players that opponents see as dirty, but teammates see as simply vicious (reminds me of John Randall a bit in that way). And most importantly, I see this as a GOOD thing for the Lions. This was a team that just two years ago was the joke of the NFL... the cupcake on the schedule that no-one took seriously. Now they are getting a reputation as dirty bullies with a mean streak. This is clearly a good thing.
Minnesota Vikings
Current "myth": It was time to move on from Donovan McNabb and see what they have in Christian Ponder.
Truth quotient: 2. Of all the QB changes made over the last two weeks, this one is the one that makes the least sense to me. Let's forget for a moment that actually Ponder played pretty well against the defending superbowl champs... what could the thinking possibly have been with the Vikings coaching staff? Look... it's clear that the Vikings are not a playoff team this year. They have too many holes in too many places... not just at the quarterback spot. Yes, Donovan McNabb is a shell of his former self. It's clear his time is pretty much at an end. But he wasn't a TOTAL disaster. So unless you really think Ponder has the goods, as a rookie, to deliver this team into the playoffs... what are you accomplishing by throwing him into the fire as a rookie, against the Packers, no less, and completely alienating McNabb 7 games into the season in the process? The right move would have been to keep playing McNabb and let Ponder take some reps in games that are out of hand. I think you find out more about Ponder after a year of learning the position at an NFL level and then putting him in after building the offense and the playbook around his skills. All you're going to find out now is what he can do on a bad team with a confidence problem and now perhaps a divided locker room. That's how you want to evaluate your QB of the future? Really? Ponder is not NFL ready, and I think could still have learned a thing or two about playing quarterback in the NFL from McNabb, who let's not forget was once one of the top 5 QBs in this league. I don't understand this move, or what it means for this team this year. Makes no sense to me at all.
Green Bay Packers
Current "myth": This is a team that could possibly make a run at matching the Patriots perfect 2007 regular season.
Truth quotient: 3. There's a large number of analysts and hand-wringing pundits lobbying points of concern at the admittedly poor Patriots pass defense... but in case you're wondering, the Pats' pass defense actually ranks 31st in the league. Wanna guess who's 32? Yup... the Pack. This is obviously the best team in the league and the team I think will represent the NFC in the superbowl. And very well could win it. But they won't win every game in a 16 game schedule with that pass defense. It will improve, I think, but it's still susceptible enough to drop a game here or there... in fact look out for the Chargers after the bye week...
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current "myth": The Bucs are showing that they were a bit of a fluke last year and are not ready to make the leap to the upper-echelon of NFL teams.
Truth quotient: 7. The Buccaneers were one of the youngest teams in the NFL last year, but overcame that youth to post an impressive record and seemed poised to make the jump to "very good" team status. This year, however, a tougher schedule and some injuries to their running backs have brought them back down to earth. What we see now is probably more what we should have realistically expected from them entering the season. This was a classic case of over-valuing a team's performance from a prior season and setting expectations that were probably unrealistic. This is still a very young team... young and aggressive. Which means they will look gang-busters at times, but will also be mistake-prone. Josh Freeman is still only in his second full season as a starter... so he will still have some growing pains. All that said, this team is still underperfoming a bit at times and seems to lose focus... a common characteristic for young teams and a challenge that Raheem Morris will have to overcome.
Atlanta Falcons
Current "myth": The big win against the Lions will put the Falcons back on track towards being a legitimate playoff contender.
Truth quotient: 4. This was indeed a big win for the Falcons. They've underachieved by any measure this year and don't look at all like the team that was the top seed in the NFC last year. The win against a good team in the Lions showed that they still do have the capability of playing at a high level, but I've outlined the reasons why I think they have been terribly overrated many times... they are a play-action team predicated on running the ball well then making big plays in the passing game off of play-action. They can't run the ball this year and teams are not playing up in the box to stop the run like they were last year, taking away much of the effectiveness of play-action. This is still a good team, but nowhere near the elite-level team most had them pegged as to start the year. They will struggle to finish at 10-6 and will be fighting for a wildcard spot with at least 3 other teams at about the same record.
Carolina Panthers
Current "myth": Cam Newton is a pro-bowl QB right now.
Truth quotient: 8. Yeah... I'm buying that. Look, in the NFC obviously you have your two top QBs in Rodgers and Brees... but after that who has outperformed Cam Newton in the NFC? Matt Ryan has had an inconsistent year, as has Jay Cutler. Eli Manning continues to be a chucker who relies on the skill of his receivers to pull his prayers out of the sky. Don't even mention Tony Romo. Matt Stafford? Ok... maybe... but are you going to tell me he's been better than Newton? No way... this guy has lit up some pretty good defenses... I had my doubts about him coming in, but I'm a believer. He makes accurate, strong throws both on the move and in the pocket. He still needs to learn to read defenses a bit better but I'd expect that from rookie. What I didn't expect was his leadership and moxie as a rookie. In my view, yes... Cam Newton is a pro-bowler now as the third QB in.
New Orleans Saints
Current "myth": The Saints are the only real threat to unseat the Packers in the NFC and go to the superbowl.
Truth quotient: 8. I think this is largely true. I look at the other top teams in the NFC: the Lions are up and coming but still a year or two away from being good enough to beat the Packers in a playoff game at Lambeau. The 49ers are playing way over their heads, but again... not a real threat to the Packers. No-one in the NFC East should scare them at all. But the Saints have just the right ingredients, I think, to upset the Packers. They have one of the 3 most prolific passing attacks in football, an all-world QB, an excellent coach, and a better than you think defense that might be able to make just enough plays to let the Saints outscore the Packers... and they have a better running game than Green Bay. So while I still think the Packers are the clear favorites, I think the Saints have the only real chance to beat them come January.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
Current "myth": The Seahawks have the worst offense in football.
Truth quotient: 9. Yup. With all due respect to Jacksonville, Miami, Indianapolis and St. Louis, the Seahawks have the fewest total yards in the NFL this year, and are rushing for a pathetic 80 yards per game. That's embarrassing. When the Seahawks let Matt Hassleback walk away I was ok with it, assuming they had a plan in mind to make a push for maybe Carson Palmer, or some other viable option at QB... but once they brought in Tavaris Jackson I completely lost any belief that they have the slightest clue what they are doing up there in the Pacific Northwest. I have no idea why this guy keeps getting chances at being a starting QB. He's awful. There's no two ways about it. Just flat out horrible. And he's never shown himself to ever be anything but at BEST an average backup option. I don't understand what Pete Carroll, who by all accounts is a pretty good evaluator of talent (at least a the college level) saw, or continues to see in this guy. I'd have made a stronger argument for St. Louis except that I think their problems are mainly injury related and if they were healthy and intact they'd be a much better offense, in my belief. Now... if we were talking about the worst offense in football just this week... well, that honor would go to the Baltimore Ravens, who put on the worst offensive spectacle I've seen since... well, since the Jets played Baltimore a few weeks ago. Oh my word that was unwatchable... literally... I couldn't watch it. I actually turned the channel to watch the Iron Chef Halloween Candy battle. It was way more entertaining.
Arizona Cardinals
Current "myth": The Cardinals may have made a mistake in putting all their eggs in the "Kevin Kolb" basket.
Truth quotient: 5. I'm torn on this one. Part of me wants to agree with it... Kolb hasn't really looked like a guy who can put his team on his shoulders and carry them to the playoffs. He throws off his back foot, doesn't seem to make great reads, and gets a little jittery in the pocket. His accuracy is questionable and he hasn't learned the art of the play-action fake very well yet. He too often looks overmatched on the field. If I were a Cardinals fan, I'd be a little worried about the long term prospects with Kolb. That said, this team is really full of holes, especially on defense, where the Cards seem to have a thing for shedding talented defensive backs. Well, the result of that propensity has been one of the worst pass defenses I've ever seen. Say what you want about the Patriots and Packers' stats... the actual worst pass defense resides in the Arizona desert. Add that to a porous offensive line and a virtually non-existent running game, and I sometimes think maybe Kolb is actually doing pretty well with what he has. Bottom line, I'm not sure if I agree with this yet or not. Ask me again after the season. I'll probably be even less sure.
San Francisco 49ers
Current "myth": Coach John Harbaugh has transformed all-time draft bust Alex Smith into a legitimate NFL quarterback.
Truth quotient: 4. Not quite on this one. John Harbaugh is just a great coach, and maybe an even better motivator, but he's not literally a Genie... which is what it would take to make Alex Smith a decent NFL quarterback. What Harbaugh has done is learned to protect Smith and put him in a position to just do the basics: he never has to make more than 1 or 2 reads... he's told to get rid of the ball within a certain amount of time or throw it away... he hands the ball off to a talented stable of running backs, and he has learned not to force the ball. He is still not very accurate, or strong-armed, and doesn't possess a high football IQ, but Harbaugh knows what he has, and what he can do, and doesn't ask him to do any more. If they were to get way behind in a game, though, I don't think you could ask him to bring you back. And I think next year the Niners will still be looking for their next QB.
St. Louis Rams
Current "myth": After the Eagles, the Rams are perhaps the most disappointing team in the NFL.
Truth quotient: 7. Honestly, I struggled to come up with a real "myth" for this team. Not only is this team a bad team, they are also completely and utterly uninteresting. So much so that I initially left them completely out of my initial post without realizing it. This is a team with zero buzz. None. And that's sort of a mystery, because they came into the year as one of the potential up-and-comers along with Detroit and Tampa Bay. Oh, how that has gone by the wayside. Earlier I mentioned Seattle as the worst offense in the NFL... well, the Rams are not really that far behind (as a side note... how bad is the NFC West? This division has been terrible for years and shows no signs of getting appreciably better. Mediocrity of this magnitude for this prolonged a period of time is not supposed to happen in today's NFL. It's bizarre to me). Honestly I can't really put my finger on exactly why this team is this bad. They have some good pieces on defense, a true franchise QB in Sam Bradford, and the makings of a fairly decent running game. True, they have injuries at the WR and RB position... but this team has been rebuilding for several years now, and here's where I come down: despite having several years of high draft picks, the Rams have failed utterly at building depth through the middle of their roster. And they don't seem to have a real identity either offensively or defensively. Bottom line: I think the front office and coaching staff are not getting the job done here.
Click here to jump to the AFC portion of this column.
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