Trust me, I have no idea... but I'll give it my best shot. The only thing I know for sure is that Tony Romo won't throw any game-killing, soul-crushing INT's this week. Or maybe I shouldn't be so sure of that... Anyhow, on to the picks! Home teams are in CAPS.
Philadelphia (-3) over BUFFALO
I actually do think this Bills team is pretty good. And I almost went with them, getting points at home against a desperate Philly team. But then I repeated to myself that this is a desperate Philly team. And while Buffalo is pretty good, they aren't as good as people were thinking at 3-0. Philly has too much talent to lose like they have been every week. Buffalo has issues in their secondary. I think Philly plays mad and runs up a pretty good score. Would not be surprised at all though to find out I was dead wrong on this. Oh... and it might interest all you Mike Vick fans to know that Vick is now below .500 as the Eagles starting QB. Let's see... Vick playing the role of tantalizing talent... plays that make you gasp... looks unbeatable at times, and yet somehow loses more often than he wins, seems to make mistakes at the worst possible times, hurt too often... where have I heard this song before? Can any Falcons fans out there tell me if this sounds familiar to you?
INDIANAPOLIS (-1) over Kansas City
I went back and forth on this game several times. And again, I think if it were Kerry Collins starting this would be a much easier call for me. In the end I think Indy manages to pull out a close, low scoring game at home. But I don't feel great about it... dammit I hate this week already.
MINNESOTA (-3) over Arizona
This might be Donovan McNabb's last chance to show he has anything left and keep what might be his last starting QB gig in the NFL. And I think he will. This Minnesota team could easily be 3-1 right now if they had any ability to hold on to a lead. Against the awful Cardinals defense I think the Vikes will jump out to an early lead, and unlike prior games, will hold on to it. Look at Adrian Peterson to carry the ball about 60 times for approximately 350 yards. What... you think that can't happen?
NY GIANTS (-10) over Seattle
Yeah, I know... 10 points is a lot, and I've been regularly saying how much I doubt how good the Giants are. But here's a couple of things I do know: If nothing else, the Giants can still get after the QB. And last I checked, Tavaris Jackson is still at the helm for Seattle. The G-Men will be on him all day like stink on an ape. Seattle will be lucky to score 10. Take the points.
Tennessee (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH
This line has dropped like a stone this week from 6.5 to 3.5, which would be normal if there were some serious injury to a critical player. The injury to Harrison does hurt, but not enough to drop this line 3 points in a matter of days. What likely happened is that when Vegas released the line, so much cake was being dropped on Tennessee they were forced to adjust the line... and rightfully so. This Steelers' team is in trouble. They can't run the ball and they can't protect Big Ben, and their defense isn't what it used to be, especially in the backfield. The Titans are a pretty damn good defensive team, and have one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL, even without Kenny Britt. This line might be a pick 'em by Sunday. I'll take the 3.5 today and the Titans on the road.
CAROLINA (+7) over New Orleans
I'm on-board with Cam Newton as a legit NFL future star. He's got his issues, like any rookie, but the kid can chuck it. New Orleans is one of those "dome teams" like Atlanta, Indianapolis (the Manning version) and Philly (yeah, I know they don't play in a dome, but they have a team that was built to... which is sort of dumb when you think about it). They do well on fast surfaces with the noise of their indoor crowd. While there isn't another monsoon scheduled in Carolina, the playing surface will level out the field a bit between these two. I still like the Saints to win this game, but Cam's Cats will keep it close again and cover. Erm.. ok... I promise I will never use the phrase "Cam's Cats" again. I'm so ashamed...
Cincinnati (+3) over JACKSONVILLE
There's one of these lines every week it seems... a team that is favored for no reason I can possibly discern. It seems Vegas doesn't think much of the Bengals. Frankly I don't either, but I do think enough of them to think they can beat Blane Gabbart and the Puddy-tats. The Bengals' defense is better than you think... and here's a challenge for you: name any two receivers on the Jag's... heck, name any ONE. Couldn't do it? You're not alone. I'll take the Bengals on the road (and you can count on one finger the number of times you'll likely hear me say that again this year).
Oakland (+6) over HOUSTON
OK... repeat after me one more time... I will NOT be sucked in to thinking this Texans' team is really that good. The Raiders do one thing very well: run the ball. Houston can be run on. I think the Raiders can push the Texans around a bit on offense. And without Andre Johnson, the Texans' passing attack isn't nearly as threatening. I'll take Oakland for cover and the outright win. (hmmm... i'm just looking back over my picks so far, and it's beginning to occur to me that this could be a very ugly week for me... at least three times I've already said to myself "no... did I really pick that?" This could get messy... stay tuned.)
Tampa Bay (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
If you had predicted this line at the beginning of the season I'd have asked you if Josh Freeman was planning on tearing his ACL in week 1. Tampa has really lost some respect from Vegas with below expectation performances thus far, but if you ask me, favoring the Niners in this game means trusting Alex Smith to put together 3 straight very good performances... this time against a decent defense. And we're really not ready to go there... right? Right? Oh please don't tell me I have to live in a world where Alex Smith has become a solid starting QB... nothing in my world will make sense after that.
San Diego (-4) over DENVER
Truthfully, of all the "obvious" games this week, this one scares me the most. I just have a strange feeling this is going to be one of those inexplicable games Denver seems to have every year where Kyle Orton goes nuts for 375 yards and 4 TDs and the Broncos score 45 points. So while I'm going to take the "obvious" pick here and go with the Chargers getting less than a touchdown against what should be a lesser team in Denver, I don't feel good about it. Hell, just add this game to the long list of games I don't feel good about this week. Actually, though... I'm kind of looking forward to watching the entire city of Denver go completely apoplectic when the Broncos struggle and John Fox finally does pull Kyle Orton... and puts in Brady Quinn. Can we make this happen? Please? Oh pleeeeease?
NY Jets (+8) over NEW ENGLAND
Augh... oww... owwwww... OOOOWWWWWW. That hurt. DAMMIT but that hurt. Ok... shake it off. You're a pro. Suck it up, take a deep breath and get on with the rationale... OK, so... here it is: the Jets struggled mightily last week against the Ravens defense and just looked awful. But their defense played pretty damn well. And this Patriots defense is nowhere near the same caliber of the Raven's. So, even though Mark Sanchez is still playing like a rookie in year 3, and even though the Jets' offensive line is awful (especially if Mangold is still unable to come back), and even though this game is at Gillette, where Brady hasn't lost a regular season game in like 30 years, and even though the Pats seem to have found a running game, and even though the Jets don't seem to be able to run the ball and control the clock... wait... what the HELL am I doing? Hold on...
NEW ENGLAND (-8) over NY Jets
Ahhhhhhh... there. MUCH better. Yes... I can sleep in peace now.
Green Bay (-6) over ATLANTA
I just don't see any way Atlanta, now pretty well exposed as being way over-rated at the start of the season, can keep up with a Green Bay team that started clicking on all cylinders about half way through their week 3 game. And while there was a Roddy White sighting last week, I think Matt Ryan is going to be getting a great look at the underside of the Georgia Dome roof for a good portion of this game. Take the Pack and give the points.
DETROIT (-6) over Chicago
I think Ndamukong Suh should play a little game... I'm pretty sure Jay Cutler doesn't know how to spell his name, so I think Suh should yell a letter of his name at the smug-pussed QB every time he drills him into the Ford Field turf. "ENNNNN!!!!", "DEEEEE!!!", "AAAAEEEE"!!!!, etc... And after the ninth letter is screeched at him somewhere in the middle of the third quarter he should calmly say "that's how you spell 'Ndamukong'... now you know dat".
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