Clearly I have slipped into some sort of subconscious or alternate state of reality. Like in the movie "Inception", I must initiate a "kick" to bring me back to reality... but before I throw myself off a building, here's the recap of my picks for week 5 (correct picks in green, incorrect in red):
Bills (+3) 31, Eagles 24
I'm going to spend a couple of minutes on this one because I have some interesting viewpoints on both these teams. First... look, it's been talked to death. The Eagles are in trouble. We know. What's surprising to me is how many people are surprised by this. If you look waaaaay back at my NFC East preview column you'll see that I was not sold on this "Dream Team". The pieces they bought in the off-season were big splashes, but not the pieces they actually needed to address. What they needed was help on the offensive and defensive lines. Especially the Offensive line. It's terrible. Vick is getting hit on almost every play. However this has always been the issue with Vick. To be honest I'm not sure how much of the fault lies with the line and how much lies with Vick and his style of play. About half of the plays Vick runs are improvisation. How does the line block for that? O-Lines in the NFL can hold back a pass rush for 3 seconds... maybe 5 if they are pro-bowl players... but after that the defense will be past them. Vick has the ball at least that long every time he drops back, because he relies on his running ability to extend the play. So when he drops back he might have the ball for up to 10 seconds. How can the line sustain that play after play? They can't. And outside of a post or fly route, what kind of routes can you call for a guy who's got the ball for 5, 6, 10 seconds every snap? Andy Reid is a west-coast offense coach. He can adapt, and has, but at the end of the day he still draws up plays that use passing routes that are designed to be completed within 3 - 5 seconds of the snap of the ball. After that it's just backyard football and hope someone gets open enough. But in the NFL where the defense is just as athletic as the offense, this just doesn't work. Coaches in the NFL have film... and the film on Vick and this offense is out, and has been widely distributed. You don't call aggressive blitzes... you play 3 or 4 down linemen and let the play develop... play run gaps to stop the run, and if it's not a run wait for Vick to choose a direction and then release and attack. You drop 6 DBs into a zone, play a deep safety to take away Jackson's deep posts, and make Vick, who has never been good at reading defenses, force the ball into the underneath zones where your LBs and safeties can undercut routes. This has now worked in 3 consecutive weeks, as the Bills employed the same defense against Vick and the Eagles as the Niners and Giants. If the Eagles are going to have any success on offense now that the blueprint is out, he's going to have to fundamentally change Vick and this offense, and I'm just not sure that's possible at this point.
Ok, on the the Bills... Look, I don't want to take a thing away from this team, but man, they are playing on the edge... and have been every week since week 2. They are way better than anyone expected and should be given credit, but now they're looking to be seen as one of the elite teams in the NFL, and in that light they have some serious issues. Most notably on defense. They have the third-worst defense statistically in the NFL. (before you all scream about the fact the the Patriots have the statistically worst defense, I'll remind you that all stats are not equal. The Pats are not playing in nip-and-tuck, close games... they are generally jumping out to leads and forcing teams to throw all over the field. You'll note that the Pats are actually pretty good against the run (13th), This is not the case with the Bills, who are giving up huge yards both on the ground and in the air, in generally close games or games they are behind in. I'm not saying the Pats' defense is good... they are pretty weak overall, but this Bills defense troubles me much more for those reasons). The Bills are winning games right now for one reason and one reason only: turnovers. The Bills are averaging almost 4 turnovers a game... a pace that statistically simply can not continue. They had 3 against the Chiefs, 2 against the Raiders, 4 against the Pats, 2 against the Bengals and 5 against the Eagles. The last 4 games for the Bills have been decided by 3 points 3 times and seven points once. And here's the most important factor: in 3 out of the Bills' 5 games they've had an interception return for a touchdown. You simply can't count on those plays week in and week out. I'll also point out that the Bills' have only faced one opponent with a statistically good defense: The Bengals. And they lost that game while looking very pedestrian on offense. So while I'm still very impressed with the Bills, I still also see reasons for concerns over the long term.
Chiefs (+1) 28, Colts 24
I said at the time I was concerned about this pick. And I was right to be. The Chiefs got a whif of confidence and remembered they actually won a bunch of games last year, and the Colts are just not very good on either side of the ball right now. It's amazing... I've never seen a team so completely built around a single player on BOTH sides of the ball as this Colts team. Their offense is built specifically around Manning and his ability to read defenses, change plays at the line, and call the perfect play for any given situation. He doesn't need a ton of talent to get the most out of his offense. And you can clearly see that outside of Reggie Wayne, there really isn't much talent on this team offensively... yet with Manning I'd bet they are 3-2 at worst right now. And on defense, they are clearly built to play with the leads Manning usually provides: small and fast, built to rush the passer and not be concerned with the running game as a primary weapon. This defense doesn't work as well when the offense struggles to put up points. So this Colts team is clearly going to finish with a very bad record... and if it's bad enough for the first pick (I don't think so... I think that will go to Miami or Jacksonville), what do you do? There you have Andrew Luck... the last time a QB came into the NFL with as many pure, polished, NFL-ready measurables, the Colts grabbed him with the first pick in the 1998 draft. By all accounts Luck is a once in a generation franchise QB. And Manning is 36 and coming off several neck surgeries. At this point we don't know what the impact might be on the rest of his career. If I knew Peyton was coming back and would be the QB he has been, I'd expect 3 - 5 more years of top level QB play, and the choice would be easy. I'd package the no. 1 pick to the highest bidder for a boatload of picks (two no. 1's, two no. 2's at least) and build a better support system around the team for a run at at least 2 or 3 more championships... but what if Manning's future is still up in the air come draft time? What do you do? Honestly, it's a pretty damn good problem to have and I frankly hate the Colts all the more for their dumb lu-... err... fortune.
Vikings (-3) 34, Cardinals 10
You laughed at my last line in my picks column, didn't you. Yeah, well... even in clear exaggeration for comical emphasis I was almost right. Peterson ran over, around and through the wet toilet paper that is the Cardinals defense. I don't care what the statistics say, this is the worst defense in the NFL right now. And it's not close. The best thing the Cardinals have going for them is that they won't have to play the Packers, Patriots or Saints this year. Records would likely be smashed. In other news around this game, Donovan McNabb should donate his game check to Peterson, because no-one will be talking about how below-average McNabb was again in this game, so he'll likely keep his job one more week.
Seahawks (+10) 36, Giants 25
Why do people keep making excuses for Eli Manning's mistakes? He threw 25 interceptions last year, yet mostly what we heard was about how his receiving corps let him down or tipped balls hurt blah blah blah... and here we are again, the Giants offense underachieving, and after 5 games Eli has thrown 5 picks and lost 3 fumbles. Yet once again, I hear excuses being made... Victor Cruz tipped the ball right to a defender (even Eli couldn't bring himself to accept responsibility in his post-game press conference, again blaming the "tipped ball"... even he's believing his own hype). OK... fine... but the ball was thrown away from Cruz into triple coverage on the outside where if it is picked there is no-one to stop the defender. The ball should never have been thrown. The first interception was a poor throw off his back foot where Eli didn't read the safety coming over the top. And the other interception was also a tipped ball, but again thrown into double coverage with a safety directly trailing the play. These are throws the Eli consistently tries to make... pressing the ball into tight coverage while not being all that accurate. I'm going to call it what it is: Eli is a chucker. He was in college and he is now. He's got a great arm, but he has always made a habit of simply chucking a ball and relying on his receivers to make great plays (like Cruz made on a badly underthrown ball for a touchdown... that should have been picked too). Unfortunately he hasn't had too many great receivers in the past few years to rescue his thrown prayers. I have never bought into Eli as an elite QB, and the last year and 5 weeks just keep confirming what I already knew. Eli is a chucker, and if he doesn't have tall, athletic receivers bailing him out, will continue to make bad throws and interceptions. I said in my picks column that I wasn't sure how god the Giants were... well, honestly I'm still not sure. They had no business losing this game at home to a bad team, but they did put up some gawdy offensive numbers. I think this is an 8-8 team at this point... maybe 9-7.
Steelers (-3.5) 38, Titans 17
And believe me, folks... the game wasn't as close as the score. After four weeks the Titans really had me believing. They were playing good defense, and were balanced on offense. They looked like a tough out, while the Steelers seemed to be reeling a bit. But, like about 3 or 4 other teams in the NFL this year, the Steelers are a Jekyll and Hyde team. This week they were dominant on both sides of the ball and the Titans looked inept. I don't take much from this game at this time other than the Titans just had one of those games. It happens... I'm not sure what it means for the Steelers, though... I think ultimately they are still flawed. They aren't playing to their identity, running the ball and stifling defense, consistently right now. Maybe that changes... they've got a couple of cupcake games coming up against the Jags and Cards, before taking on the Patriots, so they have a chance to really correct some holes.
Saints (-7) 30, Panthers 27
The Panthers might lose more games by less than a touchdown than any team in history this season... and believe it or not, that's a compliment. This team, with holes all over the defense, a poor O-line, and very little running game and a raw rookie QB with only a year of experience as a starter in college, has no business being right in these games against the likes of the Packers, Bears and Saints... that they are is nothing less than a testament to the skill and competitive drive of one Cam Newton. The Panthers are the king of the back-door cover, and I will keep taking them as long as Vegas keeps making them 7 point dogs. As for the Saints, they need to start closing out games more authoritatively... they are just a couple plays away from being 2-3 and could easily have lost this one.
Bengals (+3) 30, Jaguars 20
As I said in my picks column, I still have no idea why the Jags were favored in this game. The Bengals are one of the better "good bad teams" in the NFL right now, and I really like AJ Green. That dude's gonna be a good receiver in this league for a long time... looks a lot like Andre Johnson to me. And truthfully, Bengals ownership looks even dumber than ever for not trading Carson Palmer. It's clear Andy Dalton is going to be at least a pretty good QB in this league, and had they traded Palmer they could have added a couple more pieces around him (maybe O-Line help) and in 2 years this team could really be dangerous. As it is, they are just not deep enough or talented enough yet to be considered a real threat. The Jaguars are just almost unwatchable. Just ask people in Jacksonville.
Raiders (+6) 25, Texans 20
Had I known about the death of Al Davis before I posted the picks column, I would have likely put real money down on this game. The Raiders were already going to be tough enough to beat without the added "spiritual motivation" that always gives teams an extra boost. The Raiders aren't going to make any noise in the playoffs or anything, but they are a team going in the right direction. I still don't like their QB situation... but imagine this team if, say, Carson Palmer suddenly dropped into their lap? Could happen... I'll be interested to see how the passing of Al Davis impacts the Raiders down the road in the off-season. I've long believed that good free agents haven't gone to Oakland because of Davis at this point... wonder if that changes with him passing. We'll see. And if you are Houston... look... you can't continue to ask to be taken seriously and lose these games at home. Yes, the Raiders are a tough team... yes, they had a little extra motivation. Doesn't matter. These games are statement games... chances for you to rise up and serve notice. Elite teams don't lose these games... yet year after year the Texans always seem to lose these games. This is why I can't buy into them and take them seriously as contenders.
49ers (-3) 48, Buccaneers 3
Yikes. Tampa Bay has got to be the most disappointing team in the NFL this year, don't they? This was the sexy pick before the season... the team everyone thought was on the cusp... ready to make the jump... they had young talent, speed, and a gifted young athlete at quarterback. And they've really fallen apart in a hurry. It's bad enough to get whupped by, let's face it, despite the record, what is widely considered a mediocre team. But you score 3 points. Total. In the first quarter. I honestly don't know what's wrong with the Bucs... can't put my finger on it but they really haven't looked right this year at all. And look, it's pretty clear the difference in the 49ers right now. It's coaching, plain and simple. Jim Harbaugh can coach. Period. The Niners played a well balanced, well executed game... they were coached up. I joked about Alex Smith earlier, but the truth is he's not being asked to carry this team. Jim Harbaugh knows he can't win doing that, so he asks him to do only so much. Make quick reads... take open receivers, throw the ball away in a hurry if it's not there. And Smith is doing what he's asked. Smith's numbers won't jump out at you, but the Niners run the ball well and play solid defense, so he doesn't need to do much more than manage the game. They will struggle against the better teams, but they're a much better team than they were a year ago and in my view, that's mainly due to coaching.
Chargers (-4) 29, Broncos 24
OK, Denver fans. You got what you wanted. Say hello to the Tim Tebow era. Honestly, fans sometimes just make me shake my head. There is nothing... NOTHING that anyone could have possibly seen at the pro level from this guy to make ANYONE believe he's going to be a viable starting NFL QB. But he was a college legend, the Broncos have been awful for years so the fans are desperate for a hero, and he's also overtly religious, which you can never underestimate the power of in the good ol' USA, especially in the mid-west. I think fans genuinely believe God will take this mechanically poor, inaccurate, wildly inconsistent thrower and miracle him into a super-bowl winner overnight. I'm here to tell you, Bronco fans... it ain't gonna happen. (I remember as a Patriots fan in the mid-90's fans were getting frustrated with Bledsoe and were clamoring for college phenom and pre-season star Michael Bishop... same kind of QB... let's just say I think we're all glad the coaches never gave in to that fan pressure). I think John Fox has basically thrown his hands up, and has gotten sick of the local fans and media insisting they know more than he does. So he's opening up Pandora's box and will sit back and let this disaster unfold. Oh, there will be some exciting moments for sure. Tebow will make some dazzling plays... escaping the pocket and hitting wide-open receivers occasionally, running for first-downs while diving head first. He might even steal a game or two against average opponents on his legs and guile alone. But on balance, he will be what he is. He will make horrible throws, miss receivers, throw bad interceptions, take hard hits too often, and it will take probably a full season of this before fans and True Believers finally acquiesce and admit maybe he's just not that good. What should be really interesting is if Tebow plays just well enough to win a game or two, and is regularly exciting enough... and the Broncos wind up with that first pick and a chance at Andrew Luck. We might actually see an honest to goodness holy war break out in the State of Colorado.
I should also mention here that the Chargers continue to underperform. Really this should never have been this close. Just don't like the way that team plays so inconsistently.
Patriots (-8) 30, Jets 21
Would have been a score higher if not for Aaron Hernandez letting a ball right at him in the endzone go right through his hands and into a defender's hands just before the half. The score isn't really indicative of how inept the Jets are on offense. They had two drives of any real consequence in this game. The third score came after an 88 yard kickoff return that set them up at the 18. This was not as close a contest as it should have been given the expectations of the Jets this season... and in almost surreal fashion, the Jets were talking about moral victories after the game, like a team that never expected to win in the first place might do. I expected them to be mad... angry... truculent... acting like the better team didn't win. But they didn't. They just... accepted it as if it were a foregone conclusion. This Jets team thrives on its swagger and confidence, a direct extension of the coach, but they left Foxborough a beaten team bereft of any swagger. I don't like the vibe of this team right now. Rex has gotten it turned around in a hurry there before, but something about this team feels different. I'm not sure they can turn it around this year. The Patriots, meanwhile, are starting to hit a stride, I think. I never did think their defense was as bad as the stats showed, nor as bad as the pundits were claiming. This is not a great defense by any stretch, but they play the scheme very well. They carry out the game plan and do it with success. The plan was to limit the running game and get off the field on third down, and they did that very well Sunday. When they get healthy, I think they will be a pretty good defense... certainly good enough to win with in the playoffs. I still would like to see them get some CB help, though. Just not sure there's much out there. On the offensive side it's getting rather silly. I mean, the Jets defense actually played pretty well I thought, on balance. The Pats didn't score on their opening drive for the first time all year, they turned the ball over in the red zone and struggled a bit at times... and yet they once again put up 30 points and over 400 yards of offense and made it look effortless. It's a real joy watching this team operate on offense. And now that they've found a true "thunder and lightening" inside-outside running combo with Green-Ellis and Ridley, they are going to be even tougher to defend.
Packers (-6) 25, Falcons 14
Not much to say here that I didn't already say in my picks column. Ho-hum win for the Pack... got off to a slow start but were never really in danger of losing this game... and that right there is the sign of a championship team: when you watch them go down by two touchdowns in the first quarter and never ever think for a moment that they might actually lose the game. I will also add that I've never seen any QB, ever... not Favre, not Steve Young, throw the ball on the run with so little effort and so much zip and accuracy as Aaron Rodgers. I think Tom Brady is the best QB in football, and might be the best of all time, but Rodgers has just incredible ability in that arm and does things on the move that Brady couldn't dream of doing. When Brady retires, this guy is the best in the NFL and it's not even close.
Lions (-6) 24, Bears 13
Lions are good. Bears are not. And Mike Martz is going to be arrested for being an accomplice to murder when they scrape Jay Cutler's deceased carcass of the filed at some point. There are only two QBs I've ever seen with a release quick enough to play in Martz' "zero-protection" style offense: Kurt Warner and Dan Marino. Jay Cutler isn't close to either of those guys. Martz needs to go before Cutler gets really hurt. I'm serious.
Record this week: 8-5
No comments:
Post a Comment