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| Ughh... you're right, it does smell like Indian food |
Well, well... looks like I'm not such an idiot after all. After a wacky week 3, week 4 played out more or less as I thought it would and I've made a remarkable comeback this week! It's still mighty early, but things are starting to take a little bit of shape in the NFL. By the way, Bills fans, that very loud THUD was the sound of reality landing directly on top of you. So... on the the picks review. As always, games I picked correctly are in green, games I whiffed on are in red.
New Orleans (-7) 23, Jacksonville 10
This game was much closer than it should have been. New Orleans has this terrible habit of playing down to their competition... just ask last year's Seahawks. Seems they lose some focus and intensity when the opponent is less of a "threat". This could be problematic down the road.
Detroit (+1.5) 34, Dallas 30
Ahhhh... there's the Romo we all know and love. I've never seen a single game so completely and perfectly represent one player's entire career like this one did for Romo. Unquestionable athletic ability and talent. Can control a game and improvise his way to great plays. And then can just inexcusably throw the ball into places he shouldn't, make poor decisions, try to do too much and ultimately kill you. And in the end you wind up with an exciting team with a QB they can't win without, and can't win with. Good luck with the rest of the Tony Romo era, Cowboy fans. I think I'm moving to Dallas and opening a blood pressure clinic... I'll be rich beyond my wildest dreams before the Romo experiment is permanently shut down. Oh... and Calvin Johnson is pretty good for a number 3 receiver, I gotta say... we need to start noticing that guy.
San Francisco (+9) 24, Philadelphia 23
The most surprising aspect of this game wasn't just that the Eagles lost... but that their defense, and in particular their secondary, was just awful... especially in critical situations. I'll say this right now... the Eagles front 7 is simply too small to compete against power running teams... or teams with even a decent running game. And that "wide 9" technique is going to get them run over up the middle every week until they change something. And the gazillion dollar defensive backfield allowed way to many big plays against Alex Smith. Yes... that Alex Smith. So far the Eagles have played St. Louis, the Giants, the Niners, and a vastly over-rated Atlanta team. None of these teams are very good, offensively. What do you think teams with high-powered offenses like Dallas and New England are going to do to this defense? Luckily for Philly they really don't play any high-end offenses outside of those two teams. Philly has an enormous advantage schedule-wise this year and if they make the playoffs it will be because of that, but this team is going nowhere with that defense and an offense that at times seems too fast for itself.
Washington (-2) 17, St. Louis 10
Speaking of cupcake schedules... the entire NFC East has so far benefited from the schedule. There are two 3-1 teams in that division and I simply have no idea if they are any good because they have only really played the Cardinals, Rams, Niners, and each other. The Redskins have a pretty decent defense, I think. They have an ok running game, I think. And they have Rex Grossman at QB. The Bears couldn't win with this guy on a more talented offense and one of the best defenses of the last decade... I just don't see them actually being as good as their record right now. Wake me up when anyone in this division plays a legitimate playoff team outside of their own division.
Tennessee (+1) 31, Cleveland 13
I still have no earthly idea what made Vegas favor the Browns in this game. This Titans team is for real. They have a top 10 defense, a decent QB who can actually throw downfield with accuracy (when's the last time a Titans QB could do that?) and one of the best running backs in the NFL who is only just now starting to find his form. And speaking of running backs... if Peyton Hillis continues the season the way it's gone so far, I'm going to have to start putting serious stock into the "Madden Cover jinx" theory. As a fantasy player, this guy just kills me... he killed me last year because he was grabbed late in the season and single-handedly ran that person right to the league championship, and now he's killing me this year because I took him in the second round and he's been a dud outside of one week. Oh... and in case you're wondering... my first round pick was Chris Johnson. And my top WR was Kenny Britt. Needless to say I'm not doing well in my fantasy league this year. Feh.
Cincinnati (+3) 23, Buffalo 20
I live about 3 hours from Buffalo in central NY and I took SO much crap for this pick. Well, all I can say is EAT IT. I knew what I was talking about. The Bills came into this game with an attitude they haven't had in YEARS: they actually EXPECTED to win. (I don't want to hear it from players on that team who say "we always expect to win"... no you don't... that's a lie. When you're on a mediocre or bad team, you think you can win, you try your hardest to win, you hope you will win... but you don't expect to win. If you did, you wouldn't hold a team-wide, middle of the field huddle and celebration like you just won the superbowl after a win against a good team in week 3. Just sayin.) The Bills played with decidedly less edge, less urgency, and less "want-to" than they had in their 3 prior wins. This team is simply not that talented. They are good in several areas, and very good in one or two... they need that "underdog" mentality to maintain that edge. They didn't have it on Sunday and got beaten by a somewhat lesser team. I expect they will play better at home against the Eagles next week, but I also think the Eagles are spitting mad right now and may just run roughshod over them... but that's for another column.
Kansas City (+2) 22, Minnesota 17
As I suspected, the hangover from 3 straight 20 point collapses has clearly affected this team's confidence. They look dazed right now. A total mess. Kansas City is just not a good team... and they weren't in this game. The Vikings could have and should have won this game, easily. But they seemed to be just going through the motions for the most part. I shall heretofore refer to them as the "Zombie Vikings", until something drastically changes or they show some signs of being actually alive. As for KC... there was far too much celebrating and back-slapping for a team that won their division last year and essentially brings back the same team (yes, losing Charles hurts, but they sucked well before he went down). You guys shouldn't be this excited to simply get an ugly win at this point in the season following what you accomplished last season. What happened to this team?
Chicago (-6) 34, Carolina 29
I thought the Bears' defense would present a difficult challenge for Cam Newton. I really did. I was wrong. Again. I think I need to just stop saying things about Newton and just accept that he's a star in the making that will undergo some growing pains and poor decision making like virtually every other rookie QB in the NFL has. This guy doesn't have the speed and burst on his feet of a Mike Vick, but he's a better pure passing QB than Vick ever dreamed of being. And he's not that far behind Vick in terms of footwork and speed. This guy has officially entered "scares the shit out of me" territory when the time comes for the Pats to face him. Chicago was outplayed in this game and should thank the Panthers for having no tackling ability whatsoever and being dumb enough to kick the ball anywhere near Devin Hester. That's the only reason they won this game.
Houston (-3.5) 17, Pittsburgh 10
After watching both the Ravens and the Texans shred the Steelers O-line, I think it's time to officially be concerned for Ben Roethlisberger's health on a weekly basis. The Steelers still have a very good defense (although not nearly as dominating as it once was... this is maybe the 10th or 11th best D in the league right now) but their offense is a shambles. That line is a mess. They can't pass block, they can't run block. They commit penalties, they are beaten around the edges by faster defensive ends, and up the middle by stronger defensive tackles. The Texans have both flavors in their front 7 and the Steelers had no answer for them. The Texans D was all over Big Ben all game, sacking him 5 times, intercepting him once and forcing a fumble. This is an improved Texans D, but not so improved to have dominated the Steelers O-Line the way they did with such ease. Steelers are in trouble.
Atlanta (-4.5) 30, Seattle 28
I've said it every week so far and I'll keep repeating it... this Atlanta team is over-rated, and not nearly the team they were a year ago. This is a really bad Seattle team with a horrendous offense that managed to put up nearly 400 yards and 28 points on the Falcons. Atlanta is still struggling to put up 7 in the red zone. All that said, there's no greater home field advantage in the NFL than Seahawks... err... Qwest... err... CenturyLink field in Seattle. The stadium's design is brilliant... it looks almost intimidating and the acoustics are perfectly deafening... an amazing feat for an outdoor stadium and a stark contrast to other newer outdoor NFL stadiums like Gillette, where noise seems to just evaporate into the air. They need a quality team there again, soon.
NY Giants (-1) 31, Arizona 27
A game the Giants had no business winning. Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome the "player giving himself up" rule, the modern day successor to the "tuck rule". Just like the "tuck rule", that play has been called the same way for years... I've found no fewer than 5 examples of nearly identical plays that were all called fumbles recovered by opposing teams, just as exact similar plays were called fumbles for years prior to the "tuck rule" game. But, like the tuck rule, the ruling made on the field was correct according to the letter of the rule. It's just never been called that way before that I can ever remember in a similar situation. Unlike the tuck rule, however, I think this rule should be, and will be changed. This isn't college, where the play is over when the player goes to the ground untouched. In the NFL, that's a fumble. The rule needs to be changed to define "giving yourself up" as sliding feet first. And even then, if a player is stupid enough to let go of the ball before the whistle blows, he deserves to lose it. As for the 3-1 Giants and how good they actually are, please see my point about the Redskins above. Same thing applies. I have no idea.
San Diego (-7) 26, Miami 16
I truly believe that had Chad Henne not gotten hurt, the Dolpins are in this game at the end. Something about Norv Turner's teams... they just aren't always where they need to be in terms of focus, discipline and intensity. The Chargers had more trouble putting this game away than they should have, and I think they would have found themselves in more dire straights had Henne not gotten hurt... flawed as he is.
Green Bay (-12.5) 49, Denver 23
This was my most accurate prediction of the week. Packers are too good to not throttle a team like the Broncos. They were due to break loose on someone. They still should be troubled somewhat with their defense... but it's forgiveable to allow a team to put up big yards when you're comfortably ahead... oh, speaking of which...
New England (-4.5) 31, Oakland 19
This was a sucker bet if there ever was one. We should have all known that New England was in a different class than the Raiders, and that this game was going to be won easily by Brady coming off a 4 interception game. You can count on one hand the number of back-to-back losses the Pats have had in the last decade. Wring your hands all you want about their last place defense... as I said in my other column, the Pats are 3-1 with the statistically last place defense... the Bengals are 2-2 with the first place defense. Who would you rather be right now?
Baltimore (-3.5) 34, NY Jets 17
I wrote that I thought the Ravens were a Jekyll and Hyde team, and that they would revert to Hyde against the Jets. I wrote that Flacco and the Ravens offense would struggle against a complex, aggressive Rex Ryan defense. Well, I was right about that, and the Ravens really didn't do much with the ball on offense. What I completely forgot, however, is that Mark Sanchez is the quarterback for the Jets, who by the way can't run the ball. I should have known that was a recipe for total disaster against the Ravens defense. That was just stupid of me, and I deserve to be flogged.
Tampa Bay (-10) 24, Indianapolis 17
My instincts told me that 10 points was too much to give on this game, even with Johnny Bravo... err.. Curtis Painter at QB for the Colts. Now, normally I can't go wrong by ignoring my instincts... but in a rare glimmer of wisdom, they turned out to be right. I'm probably still safer continuing my practice of ignoring them, though.
This week's record: 11-5
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