For the last decade or so the AFC has been the dominant conference in terms of number of quality teams. Coming in to this season, there were many pundits who thought the NFC might begin to overtake the AFC as the superior conference, with teams like Detroit, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and Philadelphia on the rise, along with the injury to Peyton Manning essentially taking the Colts out of "elite" status in the AFC. Well, as the season has worn on, we've seen that the NFC is pretty much a two team conference, with Green Bay and New Orleans head and shoulders above a group of underachievers and mediocre teams playing somewhat over their heads. Meanwhile the AFC continues to have a steady stream of quality teams (New England, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Houston, Buffalo to name a few), and at this point still has a clear edge over the NFC, in my book.
So with that, let's take a look at the myths and truths about teams in the AFC:
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Current "myth": The Bills' magical start to the season was a bit of a fluke, and they will quickly come down to earth.
Truth quotient: 6. I agree with this sentiment, but only to a point. I still think the Bills are a pretty good team, much better than I thought, and still better than some people think now. They've lost 2 of 3 after starting 3-0 and making everyone stand up and take notice. They have real issues in their defensive backfield, and have been very fortunate most of the season to have been the benefactor of multiple turnovers off of tipped or deflected balls... in fact this good fortune led directly to the difference between winning and losing in two different games. They have played a bit over their heads, and you are starting to see some of the flaws on this team exposed in the past few weeks. However, there is more to like about the Bills' than not. They have a pretty damn good QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is better than anyone thinks (I'd put him in the Pro Bowl if voting was today). He will sail a ball every now and then but is smart and gets rid of the ball quickly, and he knows his receivers' strengths and plays to them. They have a young, speedy WR corps and a very good running game and will be in most games they play. Their defense is suspect but getting better along the D-Line. I still think the Bills are a 9-7 team, just out of the playoffs, but I can see them being a real threat in the division in another year or two. They are moving in the right direction.
NY Jets
Current "myth": Mark Sanchez is not a good enough QB to take the Jets to the next level.
Truth quotient: 7. I've never been a Mark Sanchez fan. He possesses neither the accuracy nor the arm strength to ever be a top-level NFL QB, and his decision making is only so-so. He is serviceable on a team with an elite running game, top-notch offensive line and great defense that can keep the score low enough to allow the Jets to score just enough points to win. And for the past couple of years, this was exactly the formula, used with a high level of success. Rex Ryan had the luxury of not having to depend on Sanchez to carry the team on his back. He was able to win with suffocating defense and a punishing ground game. That is not the case this year, as the Jets' running game is a shadow of its former self and the defense is only just pretty good. Coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has taken a lot of grief for his conservative play calling, but I think he knows he can't run a more complex offense with Sanchez... he just doesn't have that skill set. If the Jets can manage to become a successful running team with a great defense again, I think they can win with Sanchez, but they will never be an elite team relying on Sanchez to win them games.
Miami Dolphins
Current "myth": The Dolphins front office / coaching staff is intentionally trying to tank the season to get a shot at drafting Andrew Luck.
Truth quotient: 3. This one is making the rounds right now pretty frequently on popular sports talk shows and websites. I'm not really buying it. First of all, I think Tony Sporano is about as clear a lame-duck coach as there is in the NFL this year. He's done after the season, so there's no upside in his tanking the season for the betterment of a team he won't be with next year. Secondly, it's just not in the DNA of most NFL players to not try and win. I don't think you could get enough of them to buy into the concept to make it actually manageable. And lastly, while I'm sure the front office would love to have a shot at drafting Luck, it's bad business in the NFL to not put forth the best effort to win, as with only 8 regular season home games, the opportunity to make money on concessions and merchandise is limited... owners wouldn't knowingly risk an empty stadium. I know this has been a common practice in the NBA (Spurs, Cavs and Celtics have all been guilty of it in the past 20 years) but the makeup and number of players in the NFL makes it much more difficult to try and accomplish.
New England Patriots
Current "myth": The Patriots can not win a superbowl with their current defense.
Truth quotient: 2. The one has been real popular lately, especially in the local Boston sports rags. It's total crap. The Patriots pass defense is among the worst in the league, statistically, this is true. And they really are not a very good defense overall... this is also true (however they do seem to be showing signs of steady improvement). But what they still are is an elite offensive team that can put up 30 + points on any team in the NFL on any given day. And they have just enough on defense to make that hold up most days. In today's NFL, if you have either an elite offense, an elite defense, or above average units on both sides, you can absolutely win a superbowl. Look at the 2000 Ravens... or the 2005 Steelers, who had mediocre to poor offenses... or the 2006 Colts who for most of the season had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, statistically... you can win a superbowl and have major flaws, as long as some aspect of your team is truly elite. The Patriots are no different. They are 5-1 and considered by nearly every sports publication in the country as one of the top two teams in the NFL. Sure, they may absolutely fall in the playoffs in the first round... so might any team in the NFL... that's the beauty of the NFL: in the playoffs it's one and done. This means that in MOST years the best team for that season doesn't actually wind up winning the superbowl. The Pats may or may not even get to the big game, but to say that have no chance at winning it all because of their defense is simply absurd, and completely ignores history. Oh... and it might interest you to know that the statistically worst pass defense in the NFL currently belongs to the 7-0 Green Bay Packers. So... ya know...
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current "myth": The Steelers' defense is beginning to show signs of its age, and is not the elite defense it has been for the last decade.
Truth quotient: 6. While this is true on some level, and the Steelers are getting a bit long in the tooth, this is still a top NFL defense. They still have the personnel to be relentless with the pass rush and cause havoc for most QBs. However, this year they are more susceptible to the run than I can ever remember a Steelers team being. There was a time when it was an accomplishment to rush for over 100 yards against this defense... this year they are giving up an average of 107 yards a game on the ground. Still good enough for 12th overall in the NFL, but not nearly the standard we're used to seeing. I also think they are heavily suspect in the secondary... this week's game against the Patriots will be a real test for the Steelers' defense, especially in the secondary.
Baltimore Ravens
Current "myth": Joe Flacco has perhaps been overrated.
Truth quotient: 7. I do think Flacco has been much overrated by pundits over the past few years. He's been widely considered to be just below that top tier of quarterbacks, behind Brady, Manning, Brees, and Rodgers... but maybe along the same line as Ryan, Schaub, and maybe even Rivers. I've never bought it. Flacco has been making a living on his strong arm, but like Mark Sanchez, has always had the luxury of a punishing defense and pounding running game. His receivers see more one-on-one coverage than just about any team in the league, and he's reaped the benefits of that. Now we see when the running game struggles as it has this year and Flacco is forced to make plays, he's not capable of doing it consistently. He's a 2-read quarterback... that is, if his first 2 reads are not open, he gets flustered and panics... either holding on to the ball and getting sacked or throwing terrible passes. He's not terribly accurate and his receivers are not terribly good (outside of Anquan Boldin, who seems to have really lost a step). The Ravens have perhaps the best defense in the NFL, but right now that offense is just horrendous (that game on Monday night was simply appalling), and much of that has to do with the play of Flacco.
Cincinnati Bengals
Current "myth": Andy Dalton is the best rookie in the NFL not named "Newton".
Truth quotient: 8. No question here. In fact if Cam Newton slips up or falters at all down the stretch, I might revise this and say he is the best rookie in the NFL period. The great thing about Dalton is that unlike Newton, almost nothing was expected of Dalton this year. In addition, you couldn't have put him in a worse situation: a rookie QB on a team that already has a top QB, but who is retiring over a feud with ownership... on a fairly poor team with essentially no receiving corps and a running back just fresh out of prison. I mean come on! Do any of you realize at all what this kid is doing under the circumstances? In very short order he and fellow rookie AJ Green have turned the Bengals around from being, once again, the bungling laughing stock of the NFL, to being an exciting young team with some real heart and maybe even a little skill. In my mind it's nothing short of amazing and he's not getting nearly enough attention for it. Love this kid.
Cleveland Browns
Current "myth": The legend of the "Madden Cover Curse" lives on with Peyton Hillis.
Truth quotient: 7. Ok, first let me get this out of the way... I don't believe in curses... or magic or ghosts or any other human-created super-natural bunk we've invented with our hyper-active imaginations... but dammit, if I were an NFL star, there is no amount of money you could ever pay me to be seen anywhere near a Madden game cover. Curse or not, it just doesn't seem worth it to me. This of course pains me to no end because Hillis is one of my fantasy RB mainstays this year. The other one being Chris Johnson. Needless to say my fantasy team is pretty much leaning over the edge of a cliff. I can't talk about this anymore... moving on...
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
Current "myth": If Peyton Manning were on this team, they'd be at least a 10 win team.
Truth quotient: 4. This is one of two popular themes floating around the sports ether these days in regards to the Colts. The other is the notion that Manning would block the Colts' drafting Andrew Luck should they have that first pick. I don't buy that one either, but let's stick with the "myth" I listed. Let me just say this... it had better NOT be the case that this team is 10-6 with Manning and 0-16 without him. No team should ever be that bereft of talent across the board, and if it IS the case then we need to do two things: immediately declare Manning as the greatest QB that ever lived, period... and start seriously questioning just how good an "architect" Bill Polian is. Polian has won executive of the year 5 times... and by no coincidence, all during Manning's tenure. But looking at this team, it's hard to imagine any QB... Manning, Brady, Montana, Elway, or Marino... winning more than 3 games. They have nothing at the QB position. And nothing in development at the QB position. They have no running game, and a terribly undersized defense. This is a bad team, top to bottom, with little depth. That the team can take such a precipitous drop simply by losing Manning is nothing short of total failure on the part of Polian. And what's worse for Polian, there's recent precedence to suggest such a thing shouldn't happen: the 2008 Patriots lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season and still went on to win 11 games (to perhaps become the best team ever to not make the playoffs). A well constructed team might not be a playoff contender without Manning, but you should still be able to win 5 - 7 games. This Colts team is an utter disaster, and Polian needs to take the blame for it.
Tennessee Titans
Current "myth": Chris Johnson's holdout is the reason for his ineffective season thus far.
Truth quotient: 5. This is half true, I think. Given the complete lack of any real off-season in terms of workouts, plus a holdout right up until the first week of the season, it was clear that Johnson was rusty and not exactly in "game shape" in the first few weeks... but now in week 7, there's really no excuse for his continued lack of production. I can't figure it out. The Titans actually have a passing game for the first time in years... you would think this would actually create more space for Johnson to run in, but this hasn't been the case. Perhaps the offensive line isn't doing its job... but it's essentially the same line he ran behind last year. I'm not sure what ails Chris Johnson right now, but it's past the point where you can blame his holdout any longer... PLUS he's just KILLING my fantasy team... ugh... dammit, I'm done talking about this too... moving on...
Houston Texans
Current "myth": THIS is finally the year the Texans break through and win the division and become a bona-fide playoff team and possible superbowl contender.
Truth quotient: 6. I still can't buy in to this team fully... they still play too inconsistently, still give up too many points on defense, and still lose games they should win. This is only made worse with the injury to Andre Johnson. Still... with the Manning-less Colts a non-factor, the Titans looking injury-bitten and like they may not be quite rounded out, and the Jaguars... well, just awful... The Texans should win the division more or less by default. They have a very good offense and an improving defense (that still gets lit up by good offenses)... but there's something about this team I'm still just not buying into yet.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Current "myth": If the Jaguars stopped playing tomorrow and forfeit the rest of their games, we would barely notice... even if we lived in Jacksonville.
Truth quotient: 10. This couldn't be more true or more sad. No-one comes to their home games. They have almost no following nationally... if not for Maurice Jones-Drew they wouldn't have a single recognizable name on the team. And they are literally within a year or two of becoming the next LA football franchise. It's a sad state of affairs in JAX...
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
Current "myth": The Chiefs have won 3 straight and might still be a threat in the division.
Truth quotient: 3. This isn't even a conversation 3 weeks ago... and I'm still not convinced. No team looked worse than the Chiefs the first 3 weeks of the season. And you just don't go from looking THAT bad to being a contender for the division. It just doesn't happen. And let's not forget that the Chiefs' winning streak has come against the Vikings and Colts, terrible teams with 1 win between them, and the Raiders with literally no viable quarterback, immediately following the whole Carson Palmer whirlwind. This is still a pretty bad team in my opinion. Looking at their schedule I see 3 more wins for them if everything goes just right in both games against Denver and if Miami continues to tank their season. Beyond that, I don't see another win on the schedule.
Oakland Raiders
Current "myth": Once Carson Palmer has a couple of weeks to shake off the rust and learn the offense, the Raiders will be better than they were before.
Truth quotient: 4. I don't think Palmer is the same quarterback he was in his first few seasons... I look back at his last 3 years with the Bengals. There were some pretty good offensive teams there, behind a pretty fair offensive line. Palmer had OchoCinco still at a high level and TJ Who's-your-mama at WR and a very motivated Cedric Benson, but seemed to regress. I think the Raiders probably had to make this move... clearly Kyle Boller is not the answer... I mean unless the question is "what QB can throw a pass 75 yards from his knees... to the wrong team". But giving up even one first rounder was too much, in my opinion. I'm not worried about losing the other one... don't see it happening, frankly. Palmer isn't the savior here... I don't think he's an appreciable upgrade over Jason Campbell in all honesty. In truth, I would have taken a flyer on a player like David Garrard, who is still floating around out there without a team after getting a raw deal in Jacksonville. He would have come cheap, and cost the Raiders nothing... and lest we forget, he was a pro-bowler in 2010.
Denver Broncos
Current "myth": Say what you want about Tebow's stats or style... all the guy does is win games, and the Broncos will win more than they lose with Tebow.
Truth quotient: 1. This is the worst story line in the NFL right now. If Tebow were ANY other quarterback he'd be getting ripped this week after that pathetic, dreadful, embarrassing performance last week, and rightfully so. Don't tell me he won the game. No, he didn't... the Dolphins ridiculous defensive calls at the end of the game and a lucky bounce on an onside kick won the game. Tebow had 24 yards passing TOTAL by the 4th quarter. I watched the replay of that game to see if I was missing something. No... I wasn't. It was as awful watching it as everyone was saying. He threw terrible balls, ugly passes, missed wide open receivers by 5 yards... looked confused and out of place. He put together one decent drive aided by a couple of great catches and was given a short field after an onside kick. Even in overtime after the defense handed him the ball at the 35 Tebow couldn't get more than 3 yards and the team had to try a very iffy 52 yarder for the win. I'm sorry, I know the Broncos won the game, but it was a terrible game against a terrible team. And if anyone thinks the Broncos are going to win more than 2 or 3 games a year with a guy like that playing QB, then they are just blinded by Tebow-lust and have pretty much forgotten everything they ever knew watching the NFL. I'm not even going to hedge on this... Tim Tebow is the worst starting quarterback I've ever seen in the NFL and will not make it through this season as the Broncos' starter.
San Diego Chargers
Current "myth": With their 4-2 start, the Chargers have shed their "slow starter" reputation and are on track to live up to their full potential.
Truth quotient: 3. Taking a closer look at the Chargers record, you'll note that they've only played two games against decent opponents... and lost them both. Their 4 wins came against 4 of maybe the worst teams in football, and they damn near lost two of them. This last Jets game is a perfect example of the Chargers last 5 years in microcosm. They got out to a lead against a team with little to no offensive ability, then play too loose and undisciplined and let them come back... losing at the end with a complete inability to make key plays in critical situations. This is a very, very old and tired song with the Chargers, who've always had one of the most talented teams in football, personnel-wise, for the past 5 or so years. But the window with that personnel is closing rapidly and the Chargers show no signs of ever truly living up to that potential. It's been clear, to me anyhow, for years now that this is directly the fault of Norv Turner and his staff. This team will continue to play this way, I believe, until they move on from the current coaching staff.
Click here to jump to the NFC portion of the column.
Click here to jump to the NFC portion of the column.
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