Having said that, two games into the season it's clear that the Patriots have some serious issues to address on defense. In my view, those problems are up the middle, where lack of depth and skill at both safety and inside linebacker are starting to be revealed. As a result, the Pats are having a hard time establishing any real defensive identity. They spent a good deal of money and effort in the off-season upgrading their defensive line, to add bulk in the middle and a bona-fide pass-rush. I think they have the personnel, up front, to be a monster D-Line, that can pressure the QB and stop the run, but ability to take advantage of those skills and apply that pressure means being able to aptly defend the middle of the field, and it seems the Patriots coaches don't have confidence in this aspect of the game, at this time. As a result, what you're seeing is that while the Pats have been regularly employing four down linemen on the line (occasionally three in long down and distance passing situations), they have not been running LBs like Mayo and Fletcher and Ninkovich off the edge or up the middle to pressure QBs. Instead they have been playing a zone along with the safeties. And teams are noticing this. Something I noticed in the last quarter of the Miami game, as well as a large chunk of the San Diego game, is that opposing offenses were exploiting that zone by sending backs and tight-ends on up-and-out routes, or flat routes that are drawing linebackers out to the flat, and vacating large portions of the underneath-middle of the field. They are then sending slot receivers across the middle about 7 - 10 yards out. With the corners playing deep and outside, this leaves undersized safeties trailing speedy wide-receivers across that middle; not only an easy completion, but an opportunity for Yards After the Catch with the middle of the zone opened up. Or, teams are sending backs to the flat, looking that way to draw the LBs in and then hitting TEs or WRs lined up inside on seam routes.
The Pats have been using Patrick Chung, their one high-skill safety, to often defend opponent's skilled TEs or receiving backs man-to-man. He's done an admirable job (notably keeping all-pro TE Antonio Gates without a catch while spending much of the game assigned to him). It's an obvious asset that Chung has the skill to handle this responsibility, but it also takes Chung out of the "read and react" safety position that was once played with aplomb by Rodney Harrison. With Harrison accompanied by capable safeties like Eugene Wilson and James Sanders, the middle of the field was kept pretty well defended. The Pats don't have that second capable safety and are too often asking Chung to be almost a third or fourth cornerback. I see the safety position as a huge problem for the Pats right now that has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the defense, and the style of defense they can employ.
Now, many Pats fans have made the claim, in defense of the Pats defensive performances of the past couple of weeks, that they are deploying a "bend but don't break" defensive mentality. Let them get the yards from 20 to 20, but defend the red-zones and minimize points. And to a point they are correct... but I don't think its in the intentional way they seem to think. I think the reason for the Pats success inside the 20 defensively has to do with the same reason they struggle outside of it: and that is, the middle of the field. Inside the 20, space is compacted and you can't vacate the middle as readily, or with as much space, as you can between the 20s. With the field shortened, the Pats can play to their strengths: strong D-Line play, solid CB play on the outside, and now the LBs and safeties have much less ground to cover in that middle-zone... as a result they become much harder to score on, and have a chance to make plays using the best of their skill-set. They've done this in two consecutive weeks now.
But there are a couple of major problems with this style of play: first, no matter how good your defense plays inside the 20s, the odds are always in favor of the offense in those situations. Eventually they will give up points. Points they wouldn't have to if they were better defensively between the 20's. And second, any team in the NFL will tell you that the best way to defend Tom Brady and the Patriots offense is to simply not allow him on the field. Brady and this offense are based on rhythm... the more they are on the field, the better they get... they get into that quick-set no huddle and dictate the pace of play and DARE you to keep up. And the best way to prevent that is to put together long drives of short-to-medium yardage plays, and most importantly, convert on third down. If you do that enough in a game, you will score points AND keep Brady off the field, giving your team a chance to steal a win in the final minutes. And one of the most glaring problems with the defense yesterday was that they just could not get off the field on third down. The Chargers deployed this strategy beautifully this past Sunday... they had the ball longer than the Pats, put together long, sustained drives, and kept Brady off the field for long stretches of play, especially in the 3rd and early 4th quarter, and converted a staggering 10 of 12 third-down opportunities. Had they managed to not be victimized by a combination of poor play calling (the 4th and goal play call), poor decisions (the second Rivers interception was gawd-awful, and the Tolbert fumble after hitting the hole and running backwards), and outstanding individual efforts by the Patriots (the Wilfork interception, and the play by Mayo, diving over a defender to swat the ball out of Tolbert's hands), they would have been in excellent position to have kept this game close and maybe even win it.
And that's my fear... that the Pats are going to have trouble with a smart team that plays well in the middle of the field. You're not going to beat this team straight-up trying to outscore them in a slug-fest. Brady is just too locked in right now. If I were a coach of an opposing team I would revolve my entire game-plan around that philosophy: clear out the middle and send slants, crosses and seam routes to take advantage of that middle... put together long drives... mix in runs, mainly around the edge, and chew up clock. Keep the game close, then turn up the defensive pressure in the second half and try to steal the game late.
I'm not sure the Bills are the team to succeed with this. They are scrappy, and they will try this approach, I promise you, but their team is built around speed on the outside with players like Stevie Johnson and Roscoe Parrish and CJ Spiller. Fred Jackson is a great between the tackles runner but I think the Pats hold up well against him. And the Bills defense is not great... so while I think the Bills will be scrappy and will put up a fight, I don't see them having the horses to keep the Pats off the board for less than 35 - 45 points, and I just don't see them putting up that many points themselves.
I think pretty much the same of the Raiders the following week, frankly. They don't have anywhere near the type of controlled offense they would need to beat the Pats. Looking ahead, though, the Jets and Steelers do... and I think it will be by that Jets game in 3 weeks that the Pats will need to have fixed their safety problem and start allowing that D-Line to play a more sustained attacking style... otherwise we'll be looking at the wrong end of a 28-24 score.
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