New Orleans (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
I'm not sure we learned anything about the Jaguars new rookie QB Blane Gabbert given the monsoon they played in last week. But I do know about the Saints. They've added a bit of balance in the running game and should win this game by at least 10.
Detroit (+1.5) over DALLAS
Detroit might have taken a half to get unstuck last week on the road against Minnesota, but I can't for the life of me figure out what oddsmakers saw from the Cowboys Monday night to have them favored over the Lions. Lions' defensive pressure + Ndomukong Suh + Romo's cracked ribs = painful 2nd quarter exit.
San Francisco (+9) over PHILADELPHIA
Too many points, and Mike Vick is going to be taking snaps and holding the football with a bad hand, broken or not. I see lots of turnovers here... not enough to allow the Niners to win, but they'll keep it close enough to cover. Vick separates his shoulder and Eagles immediately look for a QB that's a little less injury prone, and sign Humpty-Dumpty to a 1 year contract.
Washington (-2) over ST LOUIS
Rams are a mess offensively, and aren't doing much on defense either. Washington was exposed a bit last week and played more like the team I think they really are, but their defense is still very good and should keep the Rams off the scoreboard for the most part.
Tennessee (+1) over CLEVELAND
This game is all about the running backs. Both teams will try to get their star RBs back into the groove after slow starts and injuries, and control the game on the ground. The loss of Kenney Britt will hurt, but I think Tennessee will be able to do enough through the air to win. In other news, Colt McCoy voted "player with best Porn Name in the NFL" by his peers.
CINCINNATI (+3) over Buffalo
No, this isn't a "sour-grapes" pick... so shut up. The Bills played their superbowl last week and this has all the makings of a "let-down" game. You don't get yourself up mentally for a game and you can find yourself sleepwalking through it and getting beat by a lesser team before you know it. I'll take the Bengals for the straight up win. Also, now that the Bills appear to have a decent team with a couple of decent players, the Bills' Pro Shop outside of Ralph Wilson Stadium is scrambling trying to figure out what to do with all the Brian Moorman jerseys they ordered before the season.
KANSAS CITY (+2) over Minnesota
Blech. If you're betting on this game, you probably should seek help, because you have a pretty serious problem. Both of these teams are reeling... but I think the Vikings loss after being up by 20 at home might have lingering effects.
CHICAGO (-6) over Carolina
Not so much because I think Cutler won't get sacked another 5 times and probably turn the ball over thrice, but I like this matchup from the perspective of the Bears' D. I think Cam Newton has another tough week against a more sophisticated defense than he's seen so far.
Pittsburgh (+3.5) over HOUSTON
I'm sorry, but I will NOT get sucked in to believing this Houston club is for real for yet another year. Steelers have some issues, but rarely play bad games back to back under Coach Tomlin. I'll happily take the 3.5 points. At some point in the game, I predict Troy Polamalu will deck Andre Johnson coming across the middle, knocking the all-world wide receiver a little silly. While Johnson lies on his back and Polamalu stands over him apologizing, a still fuzzy Johnson wonders why the dude standing over him looks a little and sounds a lot like his sister. (Note... if I ever manage to be fortunate enough to write about the NFL in a capacity that allows me to actually interact with the players, I will be deleting that last line and denying any and all reference to its existence).
Atlanta (-4.5) over SEATTLE
Atlanta has been exposed to a certain degree, but still are good enough to take down the woeful Seahawks. Atlanta really should use this game to rediscover their ground game. Without it, an offense predicated on play-action becomes much easier to defend. By the way, didn't Roddy White used to play for the Falcons? Man... if only they had that guy on their team still then... huh? Oh.... I see... sorry...
NY Giants (-1) over ARIZONA
Do the Giants have any idea whatsoever how cosmically fortunate they are? I don't know what to make of this team... they looked awful in the first two weeks (despite winning against St. Louis, that offense looked terrible), but looked like a different team against the Eagles. I still have my doubts about Eli and this Giants offense, but they are benefiting in a major way from the schedule right now. After this game two of the next three are against weaker opponents (Seattle and Miami, with the feisty Bills sandwiched between) and they'd better take care of business in those games, because after that they must run this gauntlet: @NE, @San Fran, Philly, @NO, GB, @Dallas, Washington, @ Jets, Dallas. Good luck G-men.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Miami.
Do I think this should be a no-brainer? Yes I do. Do I think this line should probably be about 4 points higher? You betcha. Would I be surprised in the least if the Chargers allow 2 kick returns for TDs, miss a late field goal and lose the game outright? Not even a little.
GREEN BAY (-12.5) over Denver.
The Packers sputtered a little over the first few weeks, but I think are going to start hitting their stride. This week their stride goes right over the decrepit carcass of the Denver Broncos. Hey, at least Kyle Orton won't have to suffer the humiliation of playing in front of his own fans. Might actually be good for him.
New England (-4.5) over OAKLAND
Yes, the Rrrrrrrrraidah's running game scares the bejeezus out of me, and yes I worry about the Pats secondary, but two things come in to play in this pick: one, the Pats match up better defensively in this game: they have a decent D-Line against the run, and have done well against the run so far this year... and the Raiders are not nearly as gifted a passing team as SD and Buffalo. And two, nothing would scare me more, were I an opposing team, than the thought of Tom Brady and the Pats offense coming off a four-interception loss to a division rival. I think the Pats put up close to 40 and win in a bit of a shoot-out. Plus, Tom Brady was so pissed after the game last week he cut his hair. You're screwed, Oakland.
NY Jets (+3.5) over BALTIMORE
NOTE: I hate the Jets with a burning passion that emanates from deep within the bowels of my very existence... I loathe picking the Jets... but I try to be as objective as possible when putting out these picks columns... so... objectively here's what I think: I have a theory that the Ravens are the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde team... Great week one, awful week two, great week three... it's time for the Hyde version of the Ravens to surface. There are lots of people who really like Joe Flacco... but one thing I'm noticing is that he is mistake prone against complex or pressure defenses. I think the Jets ride their defense again and force a couple of turnovers. They keep it close and cover... maybe winning outright. There... now where's my Ipecac? I need to puke.
TAMPA BAY (-10) at Indianapolis
If Kerry Collins starts this game, I think 10 points is too much to lay and I'm taking Indy. But I've never seen anything from Curtis Painter to make me think he's capable of scoring more than 14 points against a good team on the road. And I think the Bucs will put up 28 or so... so I'll take the Bucs.
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