It was learned today that Pats center Dan Koppen will miss the next 6 - 10 weeks with a fractured and badly sprained ankle. He will likely require surgery to insert a screw to stabilize the fracture. This is of course bad news, but not as bad as I had frankly expected. When I saw him carted off the field, then on the sidelines in an air-cast and crutches, I assumed he was done for the season. Having him back down he stretch and in enough time for the playoffs is a great piece of good news.
So now I'm left struggling to analyze just how much of an impact this will have on the Pats over the next 10 weeks. THere are of course several issues at play here. First, Koppen will be ably replaced by utility lineman extraordinaire Dan Connolly, who is vastly underrated I think, and could start on most NFL teams. He's the guy, you might remember, that replaced Logan Mankins as Brady's blind-side protector last year and did a more than adequate job. So while the center position is the most critical position on the line, and Koppen was one of the best, and his chemistry with Brady was excellent, I think Connolly has been here long enough and played the role to be able to step in and do at least an adequate job. Yes, I think there will be plays where it will show that Koppen is missed, but I think they will be the exception and not the rule.
The bigger problem becomes on of depth. The Pats had the luxury of having a serviceable to good backup with Connolly, but what if Connolly goes down? The Pats are thin along the line in general, and the only other players on the OL who can play at center are Wendell, who has been nursing an injury, and Thomas Welch, just promoted from the practice squad. Neither is a great long-term option, and using Connolly at center also removes depth at the guard position, where Connolly also provided back-up. The Pats will need to do something to shore up this position soon, so look for them to be going over their emergency list to find an available lineman, preferably a natural center.
Now, on to the defense. I must admit that when the game Monday night was close to being over, and I heard the announcers mention how many yards Chad Henne had thrown for (over 400 at that point), I immediately thought "no... that can't be right". It was of course, but the reason for my incredulity ties back to the same reason I was so surprised to hear all of the negativity about the Pats defense on Monday night, from both media and fans: because watching the game, my eyes told me that for most of the game, the Pats played some pretty damn good defense. They looked a little surprised and confused by the scheme and attacking look of the Dolphins on their first drive, but made some quick adjustments and then pretty much controlled the Dolphins offense till about 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter when the game really was never in doubt. Through the better part of 3 quarters the Pats held the Dolphins to 5 3-and-outs, and only 2 other drives that netted any first downs. They kept Davone Bess from being a factor at all, and held Reggie Bush pretty much in check. The only reason this game was remotely close in the middle was due to a gift-bounce interception and runback inside the 10 yard line that the Dolphins scored on two plays later. But by the time the 4ht quarter rolled around, the Pats were in control, up by 21 and playing soft zone defense. Sure, I would have liked them to have stayed aggressive and tried to take their will on top of the game, but Belichick doesn't coach that way, and never has. To him the goal is to win, be it by 30 or 3 points. So once a solid lead was established, the philosophy on defense turned to softening up the areas 5 - 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, and lock down the areas beyond that, and force the Dolphins to chew up clock by taking their gains in 5 - 7 yard chunks, even if it meant giving up a bunch of them that quickly add up. That was the game plan, and while I did feel like it was happening a little too easily, I also was aware that it was very hot, and very humid, and the Dolphins D spent most of the second half sucking wind and doubled over, so I can forgive the Pats for not having their legs completely in those last 10 minutes.
All in all, I'm just not buying the concern that many are feeling regarding this defense and its performance.
Stats don't tell the whole story.
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