Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Quick Slants: NFL week 1

The inaugural week of the 2011 NFL season is now officially behind us. Other than stating perhaps the most obvious observation ever made: Tom Brady is the best QB in the NFL right now, and it's not close; here are some other quick and random thoughts from kickoff weekend:

The obvious:
The Colts are woefully bad without Manning. Brady may be the best QB in the NFL, but I think it's clear why Manning should be considered the most valuable to his team. What a train-wreck.

The Bears defense gave up a lot of yards in their win Sunday, but stiffened and got more aggressive on their own side of the field.

You're going to need at least 28 points to beat the Packers this year. And the Patriots. That is going to be much tougher against Green Bay, however. Pats defense gave up a LOT of yards to a very average QB.

The Browns losing Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll is going to really hurt them this season.

Wes Welker has his full-speed gear back.

The Texans offensive line is maybe the best run-blocking line in football.

The Cowboys are going to have to decide how long they can live with the constant brain-farts of one Tony Romo. As talented as the guy clearly is, how many games have his head-scratching decisions cost them? Big games. They had that game won, on the road, in NY against a potential Superbowl contender. And Romo gave it away. Literally. Even this early... ESPECIALLY this early, that was a big game that could have set the tone for the rest of the season. How long can that be tolerated?

While the Patriots always get plus production out of whoever they seem to put on their offensive line, the loss of center Dan Koppen for any significant length of time would be a major blow.

I said this last year, and I'll say it again... Ryan Fitzpatrick is better than you think...

... and so is Matt Stafford...

... but Matt Hasselback isn't as good as you think.

Speaking of being better than you think, the Lions will surprise everyone if Stafford can stay healthy.

Donovan McNabb is done. I love the guy... always have. I think he got a raw deal in Philly, and was one of the most underrated stars of this generation. But he doesn't have it anymore. He may have some good games this year, but his days of carrying a team on his back on the way to a championship game are long gone.

If you turn the ball over 7 times, it's probably going to be a bad day for you...

The Cardinals might just have themselves a QB...

The Giants are in a LOT of trouble...

The Jets will have to continue to win on the backs of their defense, which to me looked more susceptible against the Cowboys than they have in the last couple of years. Sanchez is what he is... he can manage a game and make enough plays, but you do NOT want to put the game on his shoulders. The Jets won because of an opportunistic defense that capitalized on some absolutely mystifyingly bad decisions by Tony Romo, and should feel far luckier to have come out of that game with a win than they seem to be saying afterwards. Then again, Rex Ryan is the coach... which leads me to:

I wish the media would just stop asking Rex Ryan questions... of any kind. At all. Ever. Period.

The subtle:
While pre-season games don't tell the whole story, you can learn things about a team. The Chiefs looked awful in the pre-season, from starters on down, and that carried over into the first game, getting blown out at home by an average, but very game Bills team. There's a lot wrong with the Chiefs, but most noticeable was the horrid play of the lines, both offense and defense. I think this team is ready to fall with a loud thud after a very good season last year.

Is it possible for an offense to be too fast? Seemed like it at times for Philly, especially early on.

The Falcons are very suspect when they can't run the ball. Much of their high-powered offense comes off of play-action. Ryan ball-fakes as well as anyone and they have receivers that can beat most one-on-one coverage. But if you can contain their running game with just 3 or 4 down lineman and play zone, they become much easier to defend. Chicago stuffed Atlanta's run game (Turner did have 100 yds, but 53 of those came on one play... otherwise he had 47 yds. in 9 carries) and didn't bite on play action for most of the night, and thus stayed away from the big plays that Atlanta thrives on.

The Dolphins are going to regret it if they continue to try to use Reggie Bush the way they did Monday night. They ran Bush as the featured back, running him between the tackles as often as they ran him outside. That's not Reggie's game, and he's going to get worn down from that pounding. He looked decent at times but really took a beating inside.

The Rams were the darling "young" team last year (the Lions have shot right past them, in my opinion), but it's clear they still have a ways to go on defense before they can take the next step to becoming one of the better teams... and losing Stephen Jackson for any amount of time is really going to hurt them.

The Ravens may have the most balanced team in the NFL. While no particular phase of their game is elite, every aspect of their team is above average. The Pats won a lot of Superbowls in the early 2000s with exactly that sort of team.

If the Broncos knew what was good for them, they would cut or trade Tim Tebow right... frikkin... now. They will anger many of their fans in the short term, but they can't sustain this ridiculous home field dis-advantage, where ignorant fans who know nothing about NFL talent evaluation are chanting for Tebow pretty much from start to finish of a HOME game. This guy might be the best human being ever born to this earth... but that fact will never make him anything more than a sub-package, wildcat option QB in this league. He will never be a successful every down starter. Ever. For whatever reason the Denver fans won't accept that fact, so it's time the Broncos did, and got rid of the distraction once and for all. The sooner the better.

The surprising:
Well obviously, Cam Newton to start... I didn't believe this guy would be all that good at the QB position... especially in his first handful of starts. I expected too much running around, too much trying to do to much, and mistakes made by a lack of accuracy at NFL speeds and general inexperience. But they guy played a heck of a game and I give him full props. Now... having said that, I contend that Arizona may have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, and perhaps the worst defense period. And I don't expect Newton will duplicate that performance again this season. I still expect him to struggle, especially against better and more complex defenses, and I'm still withholding judgment pending further evidence, one way or the other.

The offenses are way ahead of the defenses so far in this early season. Defenses look gassed and often confused. Teams with well-established offensive systems generally rolled, with a lot of no-huddle being used. The Patriots made a really good Dolphins defense look like a JV team for most of the game Monday night.

Ben Tate, the backup tailback for the Texans, is a stud no. 1 running back waiting to happen. I felt like the Texans got a steal when they drafted him where they did (injuries kept him lower than he would have gone otherwise), and he showed why this past Sunday. He has speed and toughness, and good moves. Talk about a team with an embarrassment of riches at the position, when Arian Foster returns from injury.

The Steelers laid an absolute egg in their season opener, and yes, they do have the oldest team in the NFL... but I still think this is a very good team and I'll wait a few more weeks before entertaining any thoughts of a total collapse.

The Chargers lost more games last year due in large part to poor special teams play than any team I can ever remember... and what happens on their very first kickoff? Yup... they allow a TD return. Unreal.

Don't get too excited just yet...
Bengals, Jaguars, Bills, Texans

Don't panic just yet...
Falcons, Buccaneers, Steelers, Cowboys

Dude... you got problems...
Chiefs, Titans, Vikings, Colts, Giants

No comments:

Post a Comment