Lots of publications and columnists do weekly "picks" columns, picking games against the spread, many doing so with short explanations of those picks... occasionally they're even witty and humorous. But what I rarely see (in fact I can't think of any column that actually does this) is the columnist holding himself accountable to those picks by going back and reviewing the picks at the conclusion of the weekend's games. I'm apparently too dumb to know better... I made some statements and predictions about this weekends games and now it's time to face the music. So let's review my picks and my thoughts on the games. (Games I picked correctly I'll highlight in green, games I borked I'll put in red.
And we'll start with the most important one, obviously (this will be a two-part column, really... I will spend quite a bit of time focusing on the Pats - Bills game because... well, because this is a Boston sports blog, and I was at the game. Feel free to skip that part and go to the rest of the article if you wish):
Bills 34, Patriots (-8.5) 31
I was both wrong and right on this prediction. I said that it would either be a Pats win by double digits, or if the Bills kept it close, they'd pull it out. And that's exactly what happened. The Pats let the Bills back into this game with uncharacteristic mistakes, bad bounces, and atrocious defensive play (a little help from the refs is worth mentioning, but I don't want to distract from the fact that the Bills won and deserved to so I'll only make minor mention of it later on). I actually was in attendance at this game, and I will say a couple of things first: One, the Bills are a good team. Better than I or anyone else thought. They are balanced on offense and make plays they need to make, and Chan Gailey calls a terrific game (the third down screen pass in the second half on their own side of the field was a brilliant call). Two: it's been a loooooong time since Bills fans have had much to cheer about, and that was obvious. The stadium was absolutely thunderous, and the place stayed filled for a long time after Lindell put the winning kick through the uprights. The crowd was in a celebratory mood... this was their superbowl, and they reveled in it. Good for them. Now... the game itself... there are several reasons I think this game was won by the Bills, which I think are worth mentioning:
1. The loss of Aaron Hernandez hurt. Brady threw for almost 400 yards to essentially 2 targets: Welker and Gronkowski. He tried Ochocinco a few times, but after the horrible drop (which we'll come back to) he stopped going there even. Deion Branch was mysteriously invisible. Even Tom Brady needs a third option. It was clear in the 4th quarter that Welker and Gronk were going to be double-teamed, but Brady was forcing it in to them anyhow, mostly successfully because, well, he's friggin Tom Brady. But even Tom Brady can fall victim to his own confidence, and two of his interceptions were direct results of this. The worst of those being the ball in the endzone that he tried to force in to Gronk over the top of two defenders when he really didn't have much separation. George Wilson made a great play and picked off the ball. Without that viable third option, the Bills were able to key on these two and at the end of the game, there were a great many plays left on the field while Brady tried to get the ball to these two guys.
2. The Pats either can't or won't run the ball effectively. I think it's more of the latter, frankly. When they did run the ball they averaged over 4 yards per rush. But let's be honest, the Pats are clearly a passing team. They have arguably the best QB of all time, and some great receiving options (when healthy)... but once the Pats got up 21-0 in the second, they neeeded to turn to the ground game and slow the game down. They needed to be able to pick up chunks of yards and clock on the ground. The Bills frankly had far too many possessions for a team down 21 points, and the Pats had far too few attmepts on the ground (26) for a team up by three touchdowns. They need to run the ball more often and more effectively, especially when they get ahead... and I think the have the parts to do this. They just won't. I think that needs to change, at least some.
3. Inconsistent refs. OK... so I had initially written a whole section on the poor officiating I saw in this game... but no matter how much I might feel that way and might even be right to an extent, there's no way doing so comes off as anything but bitter whining and sour grapes. So I'm not even going to bother... I will only say this... it seems to have come up again this week with Mike Vick bitching about not getting calls other QBs get, and while I think he's more or less out of line with his approach and think he's just going to get negative backlash, he has a certain point. There are two areas of officiating that I think are horribly inconsistent, and the problem with them is that they are calls with serious ramifications. Those areas are Pass Interference, and Roughing the Quarterback. I DARE you to watch 6 games in a week and NOT come up with at least 5 plays that are called completely differently in different games by different crews, even though they are all more or less the same. We've gotten to the point where you can only hit the quarterback above the waist and below the neck, with your head up. within a half second of him throwing the ball, and then you must not drive him into the ground even if you are coming at full speed. I'm honestly shocked we don't see more penalties a game for this. Additionally, star QBs are more likely to get those calls than others. The rule itself stinks, but what's worse is the consistency of its enforcement. I honestly have no idea when this call is going to be made... I'm usually just guessing. And Pass Interference has become the great mystery of NFL officiating. Nobody quite knows all the rules and nuances of this element. It's the most inconsistently called penalty in all of football, which is bad enough, and made worse by the rules of enforcement. Spotting the ball at the spot of the foul is absurd, and only serves to allow QBs to make desperation heaves down the filed, knowing full well there's about a 50 / 50 chance of getting a PI call. This rule needs to be changed, so that it is better defined and enforceable by a 15 yard penalty, period. Too many games have been decided by this vague rule and ref's capricious interpretation of it. OK... moving on...
4. Pats' Defense has serious issues. I went in to this week hoping that the big numbers being put up against them were more a product of getting up early in games and playing "bend but don't break". Well, the Pats defense bent, and then broke like a dead tree in a hurricane. You can look at the stats and say the Pats were good on 3rd down (Bills converted 4 of 11)... but then you have to realize that the Bills only had 11 3rd downs in 13 drives! The Pats could not cover the Bills' receivers one-on-one, and were burned several times... the middle of the filed is still wiiiiiiide open. I think Fred Jackson is still open across the middle as we speak. The Pats have serious depth and talent concerns in the defensive backfield, and they still are not generating a pass-rush. The defense was a failure across the board yesterday, and I'm now officially concerned about it. I don't care if it's scheme or talent at this point, this team will not go far in the playoffs with this defense as currently deployed.
5. Ochocinco's dropped touchdown. This one may not seem as obvious, because the Pats did wind up with a touchdown later in that drive, but that was 3 minutes later, and left only enough time for the Bills to drive and score. Had Ochocinco caught a ball that was dropped right in his hands as if Brady were hovering directly over him, the Bills would have gotten the ball back with 7 minutes or so left... leaving enough time for Brady to go down and score even if the Bills get points on the ensuing drive. This was bigger than I think most people realize.
6. Bad penalties (earned). There were two that loom particularly large: In the second quarter Brady hits Gronkowski up the seam for a beautiful 35 yard pass, setting the Pats up at the Bills 35. An illegal hands penalty on rookie Nate Solder brings it back to the Patriot 20, (a 40 yard swing) where now it's 2nd and 19. The Patriots would ultimately punt. The worst one, however, was in the 3rd quarter. After taking a 10 point lead midway through the third. the Pats hold the Bills to 3-and-out, and on the ensuing possession the Pats were driving into Buffalo territory looking to deliver a knockout blow. A 9 yard pass to Welker sets the Pats up 2nd and 1 at the 32, and a good 5 yard run by BenJarvis Green-Ellis looked to have the Pats with a 1st and 10 at the Buffalo 27 as the 4th quarter began. But a holding call on Logan Mankins put the ball back at the Bills' 42, with a 2nd an 11, and two plays later the Pats punted. The game may have in fact turned on that play. The Pats O-Line is one of the best in the game, but in my mind, yesterday they cost the Pats both points and time of possession at critical times.
7. The Bills are just a good team, and made good on their chances. That's really what it came down to. I thought the Pats were the better team before this game and I haven't changed my mind on that. This Bills were being embarrassed early, and they can't continue to get behind by 20+ points every game or eventually they will get stung. They have issues on defense too, as they've now given up nearly 400 yds passing in back to back games, and also generated zero pressure on Brady. They won this game, and deservedly so, but I think they're going to have plenty to work on after watching their defense get carved up on film. The Bills did, however, show what they are made of. They are tough and resilient. The have talent at the skill positions that most people aren't aware of, and they play 4 quarters. It's all you can ask of a team of over-achievers. I think they have depth issues, and they are now terribly thin in the defensive backfield with Aaron Williams hurt yesterday. This team will struggle if injuries begin to set in... but yesterday, they played in a game where they had the ball last, the entire field to go, and a chance to win it or give it over to Brady. They did what they had to do and never gave Brady that chance. They earned the win, and their fans celebration. And hey, maybe someday the day will come for Bills fans when they can win a game in week 3 of the regular season and not act like they just won the superbowl, World War III and the MegaMillions all at once. Pfft. (yeah, I'm still a bitter Pats' fan... deal with it).
With that game aside, let's get to the rest of the games...
Titans (-6.5) 17, Broncos 14
I said the Broncos would struggle running the ball, and they did. Only 59 yards on 23 carries. After this game I heard a good deal of chatter praising Matt Hasselback and the Titans, but I'm sorry, the Titans were not very good in this game either. And we're past the "holdout" excuse phase for Chris Johnson. His limited effectiveness has got to start being a concern for Titans fans. Broncos are just not a good team, but they cover here.
Saints (-4) 40, Texans 33
Everyone still wants to buy into the Texans... but this team still can not cover anyone. And against a Drew Brees team, that's going to be trouble every time. Texans actually played well early on, but Brees and co. finally get over on the Texan's secondary. Saints look to be building some good balance on offense with Ingram and the running game.
Lions (-3.5) 26, Vikings 23 (OT)
I was surprised by this game... I didn't think the Vikings would even be competitive, but in fact they really should have won this game. Lions looked out of sorts early but turned it on late, with Stafford looking more and more like the blue-chipper we thought he would be. Vikings secondary is awful (this is starting to sound repetitive, isn't it? what's with secondaries in the NFL this year?), and Donovan McNabb continues to look washed up.
Browns (-3) 17, Dolphins 16
Another dog of a game that I would never have picked as I did if I had known Peyton Hillis was going to be out. And speaking of that... Hillis out with... strep? I take back the "Chuck Norris" analogy I made in a previous post. The "Chuck Norris" version of Peyton Hillis' arms would have played with strep, and yodeled the national anthem. Yes, I am one of the bitter fantasy players bitten by Hillis' last minute status change (while in Ralph Wilson stadium, where once it fills up, you will never get any broadband connectivity on your phone due to saturation). Dolphins not a very good team right now. Don't do anything particularly well, and several things not very well.
Giants 29, Eagles (-7) 16
Most shocking score of the day, in my opinion. "Dream team" needs to wake up. They look pretty beatable right now, and the defense is just not very good. Giants looked cooked halfway through their game against St. Louis. No offense to speak of whatsoever, and Eli looked like he couldn't carry Tom Brady's books, never mind be in his class. But then again the last time I remember saying that to myself was about 4 or 5 weeks into the 2007 season. Dammit. I hate the Giants.
Packers (-3.5) 27, Bears 17
If Cutler makes it through the next 5 games with all his appendages still attached, he should consider himself lucky. I gave Cutler a good deal of grief for his body language and obvious irritation with his teammates, but honestly at this point if he wanted to throw rotten eggs at his O-line, I'd happily hand them to him. Mike Martz needs to realize that teams know he doesn't run the ball, at all... ever... period. You'd think after a while he'd do it just cause defenses are pretty much playing zone blitz on every down, knowing there will be no running attempt to slow the aggressive pursuit. Nope. He'd rather his QB get killed than be wrong.
Panthers (-3.5) 16, Jaguars 10
How do you make an already uninteresting game completely unwatchable? Play it in monsoon conditions. I'll be honest, I didn't look at one single second of film or replay on this game. I know only what I read in the Box Score, so I won't make any attempts at analysis or even humor other than to say I'm glad I guessed right.
Raiders 34, Jets (-3) 24
I told you I suspected this Jets team was a good deal of smoke and mirrors... and the mirror cracked. The Jets compiled a lot of garbage time desperation yards at the end of the game that make the stat sheet look like this game was closer than it was. It wasn't. Jets are supposed to be ground-and-pound, but when they ran it -was more like kibbles-and-bits. They are built around their defense, but allowed the Raiders to run wild, to the tune of 234 yards on the ground. Ouch. Jets were never really in this one, and Mark Sanchez is not the guy you want bringing your team back from a deficit late. Weirdest stat of the game, though... Raiders failed to convert a single third down (0-8).
49ers 13, Bengals (-3) 8
I said going in that I trusted Andy Dalton more than I trust Alex Smith. I saw nothing in this game to make me change that opinion. Here's the only two things I found interesting about this game: 1. the Bengals managed to score 8, but without a touchdown. 2. The Jacksonville / Carolina game played in the worst possible conditions had more offensive excitement than this game. Crap game. Moving on...
Chargers (-14.5) 20, Chiefs 17
The Chargers held the woeful Chiefs to 252 TOTAL yards of offense, and yet still had to fend of the Chiefs at the end of the game. You might have won this game, Chargers, but you should probably spend the week feeling like you lost. Why can't this team perform consistently early in the season? Doesn't Norv Turner have to answer to this at some point?
Steelers (-10.5) 23, Colts 20
I was worried about this game and said so at the time. I think the Colts will start being more competitive in their games going forward... and honestly, at this point, I'm not sure I trust that the Steelers are an elite team right now. They have some real issues on both sides of the ball.
Seahawks 13, Cardinals (-3.5) 10
Cardinals are out of excuses. This is a bad Seattle team that the Cardinals needed to dispense of convincingly to be taken seriously as contenders... so back into the "also-ran" pile you go, 'Zona... Seattle deals their "andrew Luck" chances a serious blow... poor coaching on the part of Pete Carroll to win this game. Terribly short-sighted.
Ravens (-4) 37, Rams 7
Completely flummoxed by both these teams... The Ravens are the most schizophrenic team in football right now... I assume they'll get their doors blown off next week by the Jets. Rams just don't have anyone for Bradford to throw to... or hand it to, either at the moment. They need serious help at the skill positions, but I don't see where that's coming from, so I expect them to continue to struggle.
Buccaneers (-1.5) 16, Falcons 13
I said in my picks column that I thought the Falcons didn't look like the same team to me, and they might be overrated. This game displayed perfectly why I thought that... the Falcons can't run the ball, and as I've been saying since before the season started, much of the Falcons success in the passing game is predicated on play action, set up by a strong threat of the running game. That threat simply doesn't exist right now and defenses are not putting extra defenders in to stop the run. Matt Ryan isn't nearly the same QB when forced to make reads downfield or go to check-downs. It's not his strength and that was clear on Sunday. The Bucs played bump and press coverage on the Falcon wideouts and showed no respect fot eh Falcons running game, which gained a pathetic 30 yds total. The Bucs turned Ryan over 3 times (2 fumbles and a pick) by playing 6 DBs most of the night and giving Ryan nowhere to throw the ball. He held on too long and was strip sacked twice. The Falcons are in a bit of trouble here... they allowed the Bucs to control the ball (over 35 minutes possession) and keep the Falcons offense off the field. Were it not for 2 pretty ugly Freeman interceptions this game isn't as close as the final score. The Bucs on the other hand played excellent D, and ran the ball well. Freeman had an up and down game, but did enough to keep his team safely ahead. I like the look of this team going forward.
Cowboys (-4) 18, Redskins 16
Ugly game that neither team should walk away from feeling too good about. For the Cowboys, a win is a win, but this team is supposed to be far too talented on offense to be kept out of the endzone completely. If you're Washington, you have to feel like if you managed to keep the Cowboys out of the endzone, you probably should win that game. Romo was ok. Actually considering he played hurt I'll upgrade that to "good". And I'm sorry Redskins fans, Rex Grossman is still Rex Grossman, and you still are very weak at the WR position.
Record for the week (vs. the spread): 5-11
Ugh. Ugly week of picks. In my defense, 10 of the 16 games were decided by 6 points or less. That's crazy, and a bettor's nightmare. Hopefully next week will not be as unpredictable.
Random blatherings on the Boston sports scene and sports in general from a displaced Bostonian
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