They will begin this last stretch in the Bronx to face the Yankees, who have been white-hot and earlier this week clinched the American League East title and are a lock for the top seed in the playoffs. It will be very interesting to see how they play this upcoming series. Conventional wisdom would tell you that the Yanks would love nothing more than to bury their hated rivals and keep them out of the playoffs. However, there are other factors at work, and I'm not so sure they will take that approach.
If last night, when the Yanks emptied their bench and went to the back of the bullpen depth, was any indication, they've decided to cruise into the playoffs as healthy and rested as possible. For a team that has a lot of key parts on the wrong side of 30, this is probably the right decision. So if you are Joe Girardi, what do yo do this weekend? Do you play your starters and keep the foot on the gas in an attempt at burying the Sox? That would make Yankee fans happy I'm sure, and the players will vote for that as well, to be certain. But knocking out the Sox means a couple of things: first, you've used some key players and pitchers in situations where you really have nothing to play for and would probably be better served resting them. And second, if you eliminate the Sox that means you have in all likelihood opened the door for the Rays. And frankly, the Rays are a far better team than the Sox at the moment, and pose a far greater threat. Despite handling the Rays with little trouble this past series, the Rays have better and deeper pitching, and their offense is hotter than the Sox right now. So would you rather (potentially) face a beaten and depleted Sox team that has a real confidence problem, especially in the bullpen, or a younger, healthier, hungrier, deeper Rays team? I'm not so sure burying the Sox NOW makes the most sense.
That said, it is also true that the Sox handily won the season series against the Yanks, and when healthy appear to match up well with them. If the Yanks don't go for the throat and knock the Sox out, they might find themselves facing a far different team in the ALCS should it come to that. By then, assuming they get that far, the Sox will have a healthier Beckett, and likely a healthier Bedard... Youkilis could be back (although with an apparent hernia that will require off-season surgery, it won't be quite at 100%... but still), Bucholz should be healthy enough to serve the critical 6th - 7th inning role and the bullpen may be a bit more rested and recovered. If they can get anywhere close to healthy again, and get some confidence back with an ALDS win, this Sox team is as dangerous as any in the AL, still. And I'm not sure the Yankees want to be facing that wave of momentum come that time, when they had a chance to bury them and didn't take it.
So taking all those things into consideration, what would you do if you were Joe Girardi? My guess is that Girardi takes the approach of publicly stating he will make the best deisions, regarding lineups, for his team with a focus on being ready for the playoffs... but in reality I think in at least the first game you will see the Yanks with their "A" squad on the field. What happens next will depend on two things: the outcome of the game itself, and the outcome of the Rays game against Toronto. If the Sox win tonight and the Rays lose, I think Girardi will decide that it's almost assured the Sox will take the wildcard, and that discretion is the better part of valor... he will sit the stars more or less for the rest of the series. I think the same will be the case if they beat the Sox and the Rays win... at that point it's likely the Sox will be caught by the Rays regardless, so again, the stars will be rested.
However, should the Sox and Rays both win, or both lose, keeping the gap at 2, he will make one more attempt at putting the Sox away. Either way, I don't think the stars play much, if any, of the final game of this series. That's my take on it anyhow. I will be interested to see if I'm right... and how Girardi plays it will lend some insight as to how he feels about the teams in the chase right now.
Now, that whole post made me quite ill just writing it, so I'm gonna go throw up.
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