Do we really know the Bills might be for real? They've won two games, it's true, but one was against what appears to be a horrible Chiefs team, and the other was a game they trailed in, at home, against a pretty mediocre team, for most of the game, winning only after a furious comeback while still allowing almost 400 yards passing to Jason frikkin Campbell. I'm not sold.
Are we really sure that Cam Newton is that good? Sure, he's thrown for 400 yrads in consecutive games, but his team lost both games, he had a QB rating of 72 last game despite the yardage, and he's thrown more pics than touchdowns. Don't get me wrong, the kid is better than I expected, by a lot... but I'm not sure he's as good as the praise that's been heaped on him. He's made some pretty egregious mistakes... which I would expect from a rookie, but he's not being treated like a rookie by the media.
Are we really sure that Tony Romo has quieted his critics? I've been hearing that all week. Well, I'm a critic, and I've not been quieted. Even bad quarterbacks occasionally have good games... even playing hurt. Romo deserves all the credit in the world for coming out despite cracked ribs and actually throwing his team to a win... but none of that erases the myriad of boneheaded poor decisions and horrible mistakes, almost always at the worst possible times. I've seen more of that than anything else from Romo... so my opinion on him, at this point, remains unchanged despite the gutsy effort last week.
OK... enough of that... on to the picks (home team in CAPS):
TITANS (-6.5) over Broncos.
Good win for the Broncos last week, even though Dalton played well for Cincy. But this is a different week against a different team. The Broncos struggle running the ball and struggle against the run. I suspect Chris Johnson finally shakes the rust from his holdout and goes off against Denver.
SAINTS (-4) over Texans.
Everybody's back on the Texans' bandwagon again. I've seen this movie before. I'm pretty sure I remember how it ends. This line seems too low to me... Saints win big.
Patriots (-8.5) over BILLS.
Yes, that's a total homer pick. I admit it. But there is some logic in it... First, I need to see more from this Bills team before I pick them to be within 10 points of the Pats, even at home. Second, if the Bills are within 9 points near the end of this game, I think they stand a real good chance of winning because it means the Pats have let them hang around and they are playing with momentum on their home field. Might be too much to overcome. Because of that I expect the Pats to try and put this game away early... I think the Pats either win by 12 or more, or they lose, period. Pats are the better team, in my opinion, so I pick the former.
Lions (-3.5) over VIKINGS.
How is this line this close? Vegas usually values home field as worth 3 points to the home team, in general... so if Vegas feels two teams are more or less even, the home team is normally favored by around 3. So what Vegas is saying here is that the Lions aren't quite a touchdown better than the Vikings... which is odd if you've watched either of these teams play this season. Lions win big.
BROWNS (-3) over Dolphins.
Browns finally remembered how they were successful last year, and started feeding Peyton Hillis steady doses of pigskin last week. Dolphins are a team without an identity. Browns cover easily at home.
EAGLES (-7) over Giants.
Don't let the final score fool you, The Giants won the Crap-cademy award last week for "Worst performance by an offense in a winning role". If the Rams could have stopped playing like Patrick Star for the balance of three quarters, they would have won in a route. Eagles win this game with or without Vick.
Packers (-3.5) over BEARS.
Don't like this pick... Packers pass D has been atrocious, and the one thing Cutler and the Bears can do is throw the ball. That said, the Packers also do a nice job of confusing opposing QBs into making mistakes. I could easily see Cutler throwing for 450 yds, 4 picks and the Bears lose by 20, while Cutler spends the end of the game on the sideline looking like this. I'll take the Pack.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars.
Battle of rookie QBs. This game sucks. I have no idea what to expect, so I'll go the safe route and take the home favorite.
RAIDERS (+3) over Jets.
What, you didn't think I was going to take ALL favorites, did you? Jets are a bit of smoke-and-mirrors right now. Should have lost the Dallas game at home, and looked pretty bad on offense for much of that Jacksonville game despite the lopsided score, which was mostly thanks to the play of the defense. Close game that I think the Raiders will win, at home, on the strength of their running game.
BENGALS (-3) over 49ers.
Vegas thinks these two teams are even. I agree. They are both equally mediocre. Two weeks into his career and I already trust Andy Dalton more than I trust Alex Smith. Woe are the Niners. I'll take the home team to cover.
CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs.
I'd have taken this line before the Chiefs lost Jamal Charles. They are terrible on offense, worse on defense, and heading into San Diego to face an angry Chargers team that shit all over itself once again in Foxboro. Can I take this line as a halftime bet?
Steelers (-10.5) over COLTS.
I'm not thrilled with this pick. At some point I think Collins and the Colts offense are going to click a little. Not to the point where I think they are better than a 6-10 team, but still, they will go off on someone. I just don't see it being here, against the Steelers.
Cardinals (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS.
I really believe this Seattle team has what it takes (or what it lacks) to go 0-16. And that can't happen if they win this week. Andrew Luck, you'll only have to head up the West Coast for your new NFL home... hope you like Silver and Blue. And by the way, don't laugh when I say this... but if the 'Hawks do suck enough to land Luck next April, with Pete Carroll, Luck and a few other pieces, this team could be a contender as early as 2013. I'm serious.
RAMS (+4) over Ravens.
The Rams are not as bad as that game against the Giants Sunday night. They just aren't. And the Ravens looked... exposed against the Titans. There's something not quite in sync with that offense. I like the Rams at home here.
BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Falcons.
Toughest game on the schedule to pick. But I liked the way the Bucs pulled it together last week to come back against the Vikes. I think they ride that momentum. The Falcons don't look like the same team to me this year. I think they might be a little over-rated.
COWBOYS (-4) over Redskins.
Not buying this Redskins team. Rex Grossman has been in this league a long time, and has never proven that he can maintain a high level of play. Can't imagine that's suddenly changed. Cowboys will be pumped for their home opener... Romo throws 3 picks while hunching over in pain after every throw, but Grossman throws 3 right back in each ensuing possession. "The legend of" Romo wins it with a long bomb he throws while spitting up blood all over Brian Orakpo, and then is carried off the field by his teammates... on a stretcher. The crowd goes wild as Jessica Simpson jumps out from the stands and hurls herself onto Romo, killing him instantly. Cowboys list Romo as "questionable" for Lions game the following week.
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