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| Hey, watch this... I'll close my eyes and heave it and something good will happen... it almost always does. Nope, I don't really understand it myself. |
A bad throw late in a big game... a throw that should probably have never been made... a nearly unknown wide receiver making a spectacular play to bail his quarterback out. Then a good throw to an open receiver in the endzone for the winning score. Does this sound all too eerily familiar to Pats fans? Yup... just as it did in the Giants victory in superbowl XLII, it happened again last night. And just like in 2008, consummate chucker Eli Manning will get way, way too much credit... we'll come back to that later in the column... but first let's talk about the Patriots.
The Patriots did themselves no favors last night. I often times have a hard time knowing where to lay the blame for the Patriots' struggles, when they struggle. Often I feel like it's a matter of personnel, sometimes a matter of coaching / play calling. For three quarters last night (and 6 quarters out of 8 prior to that) the Patriots offense looked predictable, out of sync, and inefficient. But at this point, I'm done even attempting to blame the personnel... unlike the defense, the offense is loaded with pro-bowl caliber talent... Brady, Wes Welker, Hernandez, Gronkowski, the running backs as a group, the O-Line... they are all top notch, and more often than not have shown that to be the case this year. So what changed in the past few weeks? Simple, really... opposing teams now have 6+ weeks of film to go on, and the Patriots under Bill O'Brien don't seem to be able to do the one thing this team has thrived on doing for the last decade: adapt. The Patriots of old could change a game-plan mid-quarter. The Patriots of old could beat you in multiple ways, with multiple schemes... they could handle attacking defenses, or defenses that loaded the back-end. They ran screens, quick outs, deep balls on play action... anything to overcome whatever it was a defense was trying to do to stop them.
This offense has gone from prolific to predictable. I sat on the couch watching this game, and on nearly half the plays, was able to successfully call the play about to be run based on formation or down and distance. This is something I was never able to do with any regularity in the past. The Patriots last night ran when it looked like they were running, and passed when it looked like they were passing, with very few exceptions. And even when they would line up in a power formation, bunched with 2 TE's and RBs in a power-I, and the Giants would look, like the rest of the viewing country, and see an obvious running play, they would stack 8 at the line, and the Pats... well... ran the ball into it with predictable results. This happened several times, and not just on short down and distances. This is not the Patriots offense I've come to know. For the better part of ten years, one of the staples of the Patriots offenses was the screen pass. They executed them as well if not better than any team in football. The screen pass is a highly effective weapon against attacking defenses. As is the quick out and the quick slant to the TE. Given that the Patriots have now played attacking, aggressive defenses in 4 consecutive games now, you'd think we'd have seen a fair share of those types of plays, correct? No... I can't recall seeing a single screen or quick slant. The Patriots have, for the most part, not deviated one bit from their offensive play-calling from opponent to opponent. I've seen direct snaps to running backs with some success... I've seen reverses and double reverses... but not the bread-and-butter bubble screens, WR screens and TE screens that the Patriots once made a staple of their offense with such success. And it's not like they don't possess the personnel to run these plays. In Welker, Woodhead, Edelman and Faulk (and even Ridley, I believe), they have the quick, agile players to run these plays... what they don't possess, however, is a play-caller that believes in using them. The Patriots of 2010 completely overhauled their offensive scheme mid-season after the departure of Randy Moss, with great success. They developed a quick-pass offense that took defenses by surprise and took some time to find ways to adjust to. But the better defenses in the league began to realize that the Patriots run essentially four basic pass plays: Option routes across the middle to Welker or Branch (usually slants or curls), seam routes to Gronkowski and Hernandez, out routes to Branch and the occasional deep release to Welker or Hernandez off of play-action or pump fake. That's pretty much it. That's an offense even Mark Sanchez could run. So defenses have begun taking away the Welker short routes by jamming him at the line and putting LB's in the middle. The Patriots have got to stop running that seam route to the TE's... defenses know it's coming. They are putting safeties and linebackers in the seam about 15 to 20 yards deep and just waiting for the ball there. I swear at least 5 of Brady's interceptions have come on this route (the two I can remember clearly were both killers... one against the Bills on the goal line, and one yesterday that set up the Giants first FG). Either Brady's not seeing the defenders dropping into that area for some reason or he isn't getting enough loft on the ball... either way it's an easy read at this point and they need to stop calling it so often because defenses are just sitting on it. And they can do that because the Patriots have been totally unwilling to adjust their play-calling during the game.
And here's the last piece of that puzzle: the one thing every Patriots fan will tell you they notice is that the Patriots are much, MUCH better when operating from the no-huddle. This is explained easily, in my opinion, because in the no-huddle, the calls are made by Brady at the line, after he reads the defense, which normally has not had a chance to substitute and Brady, who's seen pretty much every defensive alignment the league has to offer, can call the right play for the situation and the defense. It works because for the most part the play-calling is taken out of the hands of O'Brien and the coaches. It's Brady vs. the defense... a matchup I'll take every single time. What we don't understand at this point is why the Pats don't run the hurry up more often... or why they don't go to it the minute they seem to be stuck in the mud. The first 4 games of the season the Patriots ran this quick offense regularly... in fact I think they ran it almost exclusively against the Chargers, and it looked unstoppable. But now It seems that we only see this come out in the final quarter of games in which they are behind. Look at the last three games. In each game the offense struggled for most of the game, got behind, and then went no-huddle. And in each of those games the offense clicked immediately after doing so. When Brady is calling the plays and reading the defenses it's like watching poetry in motion. There's probably only one QB in football who does it better (Eli's big brother)... but it happens too infrequently at this point and I'm not quite sure why. What I do know is that the Bill O'Brien huddled offense has become predictable and too easily defended. Jam the receivers and push the pocket and you will slow this team to a creeping halt. And that should never be the case with weapons this talented. Something needs to change at this point... and in my opinion it's the play calling... or more pointedly, the play caller.
Meanwhile, the defense played very, very well for 3 quarters of this game... and while they lapsed in the final quarter and allowed the Giants to march down the filed twice, let's give them some credit. The Patriots offense didn't help them at all for the 3 quarters they held up their end. They held a very talented offensive team to 10 points on 1 for 11 on third down at one point, with the only TD coming after the Brady fumble inside the 20. They did their job. Belichick did some different things this game. I didn't see the soft underneath zone deployed as much. I saw DBs crowding the line, I saw the D-Line getting a push and getting in Manning's face all day. What I saw from this defense was Belichick admitting the scheme was not working for the personnel they have, and an attempt at changing on the fly was made... and it worked for the most part. I saw hope for future games from this defense... I saw a pretty damned good defense doing a pretty damned good job. And then I saw... the Chucker...
I have stated this many times before, and I will say it again: since the 2007 season there may be no more over-rated, over-hyped, under-criticized QB in the history of the NFL than Eli Manning. I'm sure the name has to do with it... and I'm sure the miraculous win in superbowl XLII didn't hurt. But I've never seen a QB make more terrible, back footed, lobbed, prayer-thrown heaves than Eli Manning. And I've never seen any other QB get away with it more often. Eli has relied on the skills of his wide receivers to bail him out time after time, year after year. I live in upstate NY... I see a LOT of Giants games. And year after year I continue to hear pundits proclaim this guy as one of the elite QBs! Do these guys really not watch the games? Even Eli's stats don't lie. Eli is a career 58% completion passer. His career QB rating is 81.6. These are ok numbers, but hardly elite. Ok... so he won a superbowl with the Giants. But if you actually remember that regular season, Eli was awful for almost half of it... there was talk of benching him and how he was teetering on "bust" status. But his running game and defense caught fire and in the superbowl he did very little. His one "great" play was a play that should never have happened, as he should have been whistled for a sack 2 or 3 seconds before he heaved the ball. The ball was a prayer that he just chucked hoping for a receiver to make a play, and his WR somehow pinned it against his helmet while two defenders were trying to swat it away. It was a miraculous play that was two parts extraordinary skill by the wide receiver and one part pure luck. It had nothing to do with Eli. Last year Eli threw 25 interceptions, and somehow the perception was that it was mainly the fault of tipped balls and poor receiver play. I will never understand this. You can not blame 25 interceptions on anyone but the quarterback who threw them. Looking back, many of those interceptions came on typical Eli throws... balls thrown into places they shouldn't be thrown that require receivers to make spectacular plays on the ball for them not to be intercepted. The song has remained the same this year... Eli has either been bailed out by his receivers (see Victor Cruz in the Arizona game), or had poor throws into places he never should have thrown them deflected or intercepted (see Victor Cruz later in the same Arizona game). The game last night was just another prime example of what I'm talking about.
For 3 quarters Eli made bad pass after bad pass... completing under 50%, throwing off his back foot and making a terrible throw that was picked off in the endzone. And he did the same thing in the 4th quarter, except finally his receivers, poor defensive plays and lady luck intervened on his behalf yet again. Three plays were the difference in this game. Three plays. All of them terrible throws by Eli... all of them somehow, through no fault of Eli's, winding up as game-changing long yardage plays that set up scores.
With the Patriots leading 13-10 in the 4th, Eli throws up a prayer... a horribly underthrown ball on a "go route" that caused the receiver to stop, and try to reach back for the ball while the defender, Kyle Arrington, was running with him. And as has happened so may times, Arrington, unaware of the underthrown ball, makes contact with the receiver and a flag is thrown. I hate this rule. Hate it hate it hate it. There is no justice with this rule. No fairness. This rule does nothing but rewards a horribly underthrown ball that a receiver no more "has a right to" than anyone else on the filed. Frankly, the whole "pass interference" rule needs to be looked at closely and completely revised, because plays like this change games constantly, and should not be so rewarded. If I were writing the rulebook, I would write it thusly: if a receiver must make an obvious effort to redirect his intended route to make a play on a ball, incidental contact where the defender is not intentionally trying to push or move the receiver or interfere with the catch will not be called a penalty. It should be incumbent on the quarterback to make a good throw, and if the receiver has to break back towards the ball and is run into by the defender incidentally, then it should not be a foul. Period. And no-one takes advantage of the rule the way it is like Eli and the Giants. Mainly because no-one quite underthrows long-bombs as often as Eli. And why not? Were I an offensive coordinator, I'd make sure we had at least 5 of these types of plays a game... sideline posts or go routes with speedy receivers... especially against lesser cornerbacks and safeties. I'd wager I'd get 3 out of 5 to be ruled Pass Interference. (I would be somewhat judicious... I wouldn't call these types of plays against the Champ Bailey's and Darelle Revis' of the world, because those guys can not only run stride for stride with most receivers, but also can look back for the ball while staying on their receivers... it's a rare skill that very few possess). I hate this rule, and I hate how often Eli in particular benefits from it. Just to clarify... I'm not trying to make the case that this isn't a penalty.. it clearly was by the current definition... I just think the current definition sucks (especially in how inconsistently it's called. To wit: the next Pats' possession Brady throws a ball to Gronkowski at the goal-line that Gronk needs to reach back over the oncoming defender, who's facing him and not the ball... defender runs into him and Gronk can't corral the ball. No flag. Same exact play, only not on a long bomb. Same play, different call. It's maddening). So Eli made a terrible throw, but got away with it... 35 yard penalty sets up the Giants in the red zone... Touchdown a few plays later. Fast forward to the final possession of the game. Giants down again by three with 1:03 to go at their own 39. Manning gets time as the Pats drop 7... he throws another bad pass down the seam this time... a pass that was over and behind his intended receiver, Jake Ballard. Pats' safety Pat Chung see the ball coming right at him and jumps to intercept... but Jake Ballard makes what can only be described as an unbelievable snag, snatching the ball with one hand behind him and over his head and bringing it down to his other and Chung's hands skid across the tip of the ball. It was a spectacular football play worthy of every yard it gained... made by a receiver bailing out Manning yet again on a ball that 9 times out of 10 is going to be intercepted. But praise Manning, 28 yards later the Giants are already in Field Goal range to tie the game. But wait... there's more. After a Manning run of 12 gives the Giants even better FG position with 35 seconds remaining, the Giants do something which I thought was completely baffling. The only thing that was going to lose the Giants the game at this point, with the ball on about the 20 and 35 seconds left, was an interception, which Eli had already done once in the red zone and came dangerously close to doing a couple of times before. In my mind I remember being actually thrilled that the Giants were going to risk letting Eli throw it. And for a moment, I was almost right to be... Eli dropped back, and throws what I guess was meant to be a fade pattern for Cruz in the endzone... but there were two Patriots defenders there, one of which was in much better position to make a play on the ball. As the ball was in the air I could see CB Kyle Arrington moving towards the ball in the endzone, in better position to make the play then the trailing Cruz... and then I saw maybe the worst defensive play I've ever seen. Ever. I saw Sergio Brown (another practice-squadder in the Patriots practice-squad all-stars' secondary) just run over Cruz. He later said he was looking back for the ball but I've watched that play several times now. He just... ran him over. He played the body... completely. He crumples Cruz as the ball is in the air, and that causes Cruz to run into Arrington, knocking him to the ground. Ball falls incomplete about 8 yards past the pile of players. Flags out immediately. No doubter. Game over. It was the singe worst defensive play I can ever remember seeing in the past 5 years (I'm sure there are worse, but I can't think of them and this one is up there). Brown had no chance to make a play on the ball... none, and the Patriots had a defender in perfect position to make the play. Brown showed a complete lack of awareness and skill on a play that decided the game. Cruz was never going to catch that ball, and unless Arrington can get there for the interception, it's likely falling incomplete. And given the time and the situation, the Giants might make one more shot, but more likely they run the ball to bring the clock down and set up for the tying field goal. Just astoundingly bad. So once again, Eli makes a bad throw and is bailed out. He gets bailed out three times in the 4th quarter, twice in the final drive and comes away the hero. Get me a bucket... I think I'm gonna puke.
Please don't take this entirely the wrong way. I'm not trying to take anything away from the Giants as a team... they benefited from penalties, yes... but they were penalties (bad rule or not, still a penalty)... and they did do a great job of holding the Patriots' offense down. And Ballard made a sensational catch worthy of the win... up and down the line the Giants did what they needed to do at the end of the game, despite being outplayed for most of it, and earned the win. But what I just can't stomach is another week of praise and accolades for a guy who did nothing but get away with bad passes and bad decisions.
So, where does that leave the Patriots? In my view, you simply can not consider this team elite any longer. Not right now. Not with the current set of problems they have. I don't care what the record is, this was not a great Giants team. This is a team that lost to Seattle and struggled to beat Arizona. They are just not that good. And the Patriots couldn't beat them. At home. With the defense actually playing pretty well. That simply tells me that the Patriots, right now, are just not that good of a team either. I've often been accused of being a Pats' apologist by the more curmudgeony element of the Boston fan base (I like to refer to them as 'Mikey's'... they hate everything), but more often I'm a realist. This team has held elite status for over a decade. They've won 11 games with a guy who hadn't started a game since high-school. They've re-shaped their entire offense half way through a season and still won 14 games. This has been the best organization in football for the past decade and it's not close... and I keenly remember what it was like before that, in the late 80's and much of the 90's. So I don't feel compelled to go after the hierarchy that brought the team to that level all that often. But they're still not perfect. And where and when they have issues I point them out as fairly as I can. I thought last year they were a superbowl team that came up against a better defensive scheme on one day... it happens even to the best NFL teams (Ask the early 90's Bills about that). But for the first time since probably 2005 - 2006, when the Patriots major problem was lack of depth and skill at the WR and RB position (and even that 2006 team went to the AFC Championship game and should have won it but for a 2nd half collapse), I don't feel like this team holds elite status at this point. I feel like they are now, at this stage, a step below the top teams. Although as I type that, I'm having a hard time identifying who the "top teams" are right now. In the NFC you've got Green Bay, who's just on another level than pretty much anyone else right now. Then you have San Francisco... at 7-1, are they really elite? Boy, it's hard to say it with any conviction, but they've got wins over some good teams... Dallas, Cincy, Philly, Detriot (and those last three on the road)... so yeah... I'll buy the Niners' as elite. After that it's the Giants, Lions and Saints all with 6 wins. Everyone else is just pretending at the moment (although that could change... check back in 3 weeks). And right now I'm not inclined to call any of those teams elite. The Lions have struggled of late and lost two at home, and almost lost to a terrible Vikings team. They are close, but not yet elite. The Giants are pretty good as long as they aren't playing a bad team, but they lost to the Seahawks, and probably should have lost to both the Cardinals and (then) winless Dolphins. That doesn't sound elite to me, by any stretch, despite the win against the Patriots. The Saints might be but they haven't shown it consistently yet. Again, check back in three weeks. In the AFC, I would have said the Steelers had they won, but after the loss at home to a Ravens team who lost to Jacksonville and struggled beating Arizona at home, it's tough to list them as elite with their 3 losses. The Ravens and Bengals both have 6 wins, but the Ravens offense is purely schizophrenic and the defense, as good as it is, has had lapses in some games. The Bengals had the easiest schedule in the NFL over the first half of the season and also the best average field position. Things get decidedly tougher going forward for them and I can't call them elite at this stage. Very good, yes... but not elite. The AFC East is now ripe with "better than average" teams. And of the three top teams I really believe only the Patriots have the pieces to actually get back into that "elite" status, but as of right now, no... none of them are. The AFC West? Please. They are the new NFC West. That leaves the 6-3 Texans, and no... sorry, at this time I can not consider them elite until they actually finish out a season strong. Talk to me in December.
So that leaves me realistically thinking that as of right now we have two teams that can be honestly considered "elite", and they are both in the NFC. Whereas in the AFC we have just a whole bunch of "better than average but beatable on any given day" teams. Given that, the Patriots are every bit as much a contender for the AFC title as about 6 or 7 other teams. And that thought takes the sting off of yesterday's loss a bit. So what do the Patriots need to do in order to stay contenders and not slip into 9-7 territory? Well, the pieces are there, I think. On defense, I'd like to take the last 4 weeks on the whole as a better indicator than just the last game, or the one before it. In 3 of the last 4 games, the Patriots have shown vast improvement on the D-Line. They are creating pressure more regularly and forcing QBs to make quicker decisions. In the secondary, Bill Belichick continues to try to scheme a defense that best suits the limited personnel he has, and we saw glimpses of that working well yesterday. They still have very little talent along the back line and will lose more one on one battles than they win, as was witnessed yesterday at the end of the game... Belichick will need to continue to figure out how to get the most out of what he has... but in truth, is there anyone who does that better? I feel confident that they will struggle most of the year, but the Giants were the last premier passing team the Patriots will see until the final week of the season against Buffalo. and they will be good enough to win with by the end. On offense, for me it simply comes down to play selection. The Patriots need to run the two minute offense more than half of every game. They need to continue to remember that they are a team that sets up the run with the pass, not the other way around. Even against good pass defenses with good rushes, BE WHO YOU ARE... let Brady make calls at the line and decipher defenses like only he can do. Take some of the play calling away from Bill O'Brien, who is beginning to get predictable and stale. The weapons are there. I think Belichcik will recognize this ultimately and I think you will see much more of that Brady-led, two minute passing offense that we saw in the first few weeks again, starting next week against the Jets. And I think it will be successful again.
Ultimately, I still see the Patriots as the favorite to win the AFC East, and honestly because I see all three teams in the race as equally flawed. The Bills are starting to show that they still have a ways to go and will struggle against good defenses, and their defense is below average. They've only played 4 teams with winning records and are 1-3 against them, and 5 of their last 8 games come against playoff-contending teams. The Jets are still a struggling team on offense but the Defense is once again playing at a high level... and I might change my mind again should the Pats get run out of Met Life stadium next week. But given that I see all three teams as close and all with major flaws, I'll take Brady and Belichick, everything else being more or less equal. I can't really speak at this point about what to expect from the Pats once the playoffs come around because I think they are still a bit of a work in progress. Given their remaining schedule I could see them running the table and going 13-3. They play the Jets next week in what I see as the last tough game on the schedule, after which they play the Chiefs at home and then the Eagels, then it's the Colts, Redskins, Dolphins and Broncos before finishing at home against Buffalo. But given the way they are playing of late, I could also see them stumbling against the Jets, Eagles, and Bills and going 10-6 and missing the playoffs. However I really I just don't see them continuing to play that way. The next three weeks are really the season for the Patriots, I believe. We'll know much more about what this team has after that. I hope... I really do, that it's more than what we've seen the past few weeks.
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