Left pretty much for dead by nearly every analyst, pundit, and half the fan base, the New England Patriots, starting rookie free agents on defense in their first games as professionals, trounced the boastful, arrogant New York Jets in their own back yard and silenced their loudmouth louse of a coach. Sputtering through much of the first half, the Patriots at least managed to keep the Jets at bay until Tom Brady finally went to the no-huddle offense just before the half.
It's funny... I'm just a nutter fan... an amateur hack with little or no claim to a football acumen anywhere near that of the coaches of the Patriots, but last week after the loss to the Giants I wrote the following:
And here's the last piece of that puzzle: the one thing every Patriots fan will tell you they notice is that the Patriots are much, MUCH better when operating from the no-huddle. ...What we don't understand at this point is why the Pats don't run the hurry up more often... or why they don't go to it the minute they seem to be stuck in the mud.
Once the Patriots realized how much better they were moving the ball in the no-huddle hurry up, and how disconcerted it left the Jets (how many times was Jets' corner Kyle Wilson caught napping in this scheme, leaving Deion Branch uncovered on the outside for a quick pass and a 15 yard gain? I saw it happen at least twice), they ran it almost exclusively in the second half, with predictable results. As I stated last week, I think the reason for this is obvious... to me anyhow: Tom Brady is a much more capable play-caller than Bill O'Brien at this point. O'Brien has 5 or 6 bread and butter plays that defenses have pretty much caught up to at this point. Also, there seems to be only one audible call for each called play, leaving Brady with few options once he gets to the line and deciphers the defensive set... run plays look like run plays. Pass plays look like pass plays. In the huddled offense the Patriots look plodding and predictable...
But...
Put Brady at the line in the hurry up, and give him a second or two to decode the defense, and Brady will dissect a defense like a brain surgeon. He'll call the perfect play for the defensive personnel and positioning... he'll see the blitzes coming... he'll quick-snap if he sees the defense not getting set... he'll throw the quick out to the uncovered receiver. This team is well coached, and they know their roles and the signals well enough to execute this whirlwind, high pace offense. Every time they play this style, defenses react the same way: with confusion and exhaustion. By the time the Patriots get into scoring range, it's simply a matter of deciding how and where the scoring strike will come from. This is the way the Patriots should play from here on out... for at least 75% of the snaps in every game. Brady is too good and the weapons he possesses are perfectly built for this style: small, quick, deceptive receivers who get open and operate well in tight spaces, and hulking, athletic TE's who present match-up nightmares for LBs and safeties over the middle.
Today on his weekly radio appearance Brady was asked about the no-huddle and why the Patriots don't use it more often, considering how well they seem to operate out of it. His response surprised me a bit...
"Well, we do do it. We do it in every game, at some point. We tried it against Pittsburgh and we got our butt kicked. So, that didn’t work too well. We tried it against Dallas and it worked a little bit, it didn’t work some other times. Against the Giants, we used it a little bit. It didn’t work very well. So, there’s weeks when we use it. Obviously, when it works, you go, 'wow, that was good, let’s stay with it.' When it doesn’t you go, 'what the hell are we doing that for?' So, a lot of it is just a feel for the game and what we’re doing. Last night, it paid off for us."I have to be honest here, I don't remember things the way Brady does... but then again, I've always known him to be pretty accurate when it comes to reviewing or remembering details from prior games, so I'll have to take his word for it. From my seat in the press box (that's what I call my couch on game days), it looked all the world to me like the Patriots operated much better out of the hurry-up just about every time they ran it, up to and including the Steelers and Giants games. I'm damn near certain of this... I could go back a re-watch the games to confirm my suspicions but I'm much too lazy for that. Suffice to say that what I DO remember is that in the last four games, when the Patriots did look like they were moving the ball well and scoring it was while running the hurry-up. This needs to become a regular part of their offensive plan, from start to finish, and I've been saying it for weeks.
In any case, at some point during the game yesterday the Patriots did go to the hurry up and it paid off in a big way. The Jets looked flat-out overmatched when the Pats were operating out of it. This led to the Pats jumping out to a couple of touchdowns and forcing the Jets away from the ground game, which frankly was doing some damage to the Patriots in the first couple of quarters. But even with the ground game pounding the Patriots line for 5 and 6 yard gains, what the Jets sorely lack is a home-run threat. This means that they must rely on thrwoing the ball to get larger chunks of yards when they get behind. And this is simply not a strength for Mark Sanchez. Brian Schottenheimer has been getting a ton of heat for his play calling this season, but any good coach knows what his players are good at and what they are not. Schottenheimer is a good coach. And he knows that what Mark Sanchez does well is make quick throws on three step drops to his receivers and tight ends in the area of the field 10 - 15 yards down the field. What he doesn't do well is read defenses, survey the field, and throw accurate balls downfield. As was shown yesterday, if his first and second reads are not there, he struggles to see what's going on with the defense downfield and panics, resulting in sacks or throws into coverages he didn't anticipate. Schottenheimer knows this, and generally doesn't construct his offense to make Mark have to make those throws. Sanchez is simply limited... and after three years now his limitations don't seem to show any signs of improvement. The Jets are going to have a very interesting decision to make this offseason, especially if they fail to make the playoffs. They have a championship caliber defense, but lack the skill at the most important position on the field to get to that next level.
As for the Patriots... well, listening to local talk radio and reading the comment sections, I was worried the bandwagon might collapse under its own weight. Boston sports fans (and media personalities, frankly) are among the most fickle and schizophrenic in all of America, and it showed this week, as the region-wide Patriots' funeral dirge was replaced with loud choruses of "We Are the Champions" in a matter of hours. It's kind of funny to watch from the outside now... was I really like that once? I still am to a certain degree, I suppose, but I feel like having a little distance from the city has helped me gain a more balanced, even perspective. So while I thoroughly enjoyed this victory, I do so with no illusions of what this team is and what it isn't.
So, as of right now as I sit here close to midnight on a Monday night, watching the Packers do what the Packers do... dismantle a weaker opponent and look like they are barely trying, I see the Patriots in sharp focus. At this point I have a pretty fair grasp of what they are, and what they aren't. What they are right now is the clear favorite to win the AFC East, with a sweep of the Jets in hand and the easiest schedule (literally) in the NFL ahead of them. They are a team that should finish no worse than 12-4 and possess one of the most potent offenses in the NFL, capable of putting up 30 points on any team on any given night. They have every bit as much chance to represent the AFC in the superbowl as any other team (hey John Clayton... you wanna maybe have a "do-over" on that revised superbowl pick of the Ravens vs. Packers? Maybe overreacting to one win while ignoring over a month of uneven performances isn't the best way be show how great an 'analyst' you are). But realistically, the Patriots are also a team that could very easily, and without much surprise from this fan, be bounced right out of the playoffs in a first round blowout. Let's face it... this team has very serious issues on defense, still... both in terms of of talent and depth. Belichick really is a great coach... what he has managed to do with this defense is nothing short of remarkable. Yes they have the worst statistically ranked defense in the NFL... but in the only stat category that counts, "points allowed", they are a very respectable 15th. That may not sound like much to brag about, but just think about this for a minute. This team is in the dead middle of the pack in points allowed while rolling out a defense that includes 2 rookie undrafted free agents (Sterling Moore and Jeff Tarpinian), practice-squad all-stars, special teams regulars and a guy that's been signed and waived as many times as his brother (can't tell you how many Pats fans don't know that current Patriot Ross Ventrone isn't the same guy as former practice squad regular and special-teamer Ray Ventrone). OK, we can have the discussion about why the Patriots defensive personnel is what it is in another column, but the fact is what Belichick is doing with this defense, with this personnel, is nothing short of remarkable. And if the Patriots do go far in the playoffs, it will be every bit the equal, in my mind, of what he accomplished in 2008 in winning 11 games with Matt Cassel.
My assessment of the Patriots at this point is still more or less what it was before the Jets game (a game I predicted they would win and expected them to win... as my picks column proves)... a very good team that can raise to the level of elite when Brady and the offense is clicking, with a very under-talented and suspect defense that is just good enough to keep the Pats in games as long as the offense is scoring, but not good enough to survive if the offense struggles even a little. That's why the thought of an ultimate matchup with the Packers, should the Patriots be fortunate enough to survive that far, scares the bejesus out of me. The Packers will score just about every time they touch the ball against this team. You can count on them putting up 37... at least. So the Pats will have to outscore them to win. They can, of course... they have the weapons and the ability, not to mention the Packers defense is pretty bad in their own right (30th in YPG, 17th in PPG)... but of the two teams, I think it's more likely that the Packers can shut down the Patriots' offense than the Patriots can shut down the Packers' offense.
The nice thing, as a Pats fan, is that in my eyes, I see such a scenario of finding out a very real possibility. The difference between me and most of the other analysts, pundits, and media "experts", is that I felt that way before last night's game.
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