But the most perplexing thing I read from Clayton's column was his revised Superbowl pick. Before the season Clayton had the Patriots and Packers meeting in the Superbowl. Now, I can certainly understand not still thinking the Pats are a Superbowl team... they certainly haven't played that way of late... but in the AFC, who is really decidedly better? Well, it seems that John has fallen in love with the Baltimore Ravens. Which just makes me shake my head... talk about a single-game based over-reaction. For four straight weeks coming in to the Steelers game the Ravens looked very uneven... when the defense was dominating, the offense looked terrible... when the offense played better, the defense seemed a bit vulnerable. Against the Jets the Ravens were pretty bad on offense and rode 3 defensive returns for touchdowns to victory. The Houston game was a good game for the offense but the defense wasn't as dominant. Then there was the game against the Jaguars. A game they lost. To a really bad team. And couldn't have looked worse doing it. They followed that up by getting dominated at home for nearly 3 quarters by another bad team in Arizona before putting together a mad rush in the 2nd half to barely beat them. Had the Ravens lost to the Steelers they wouldn't be in the discussion for top 5 in the AFC, but pulling out the last second win makes them the Superbowl favorite? I hate analysts.
Anyhow... the AFC is a total crapshoot as far as I'm concerned. Any of about 6 teams can make as good a case as any other to be the AFC representative in the Superbowl (none of those teams reside in the AFC West, however). We really will have to let the next 4 - 6 weeks play out before we have more clarity in the AFC.
Onward to the picks. In a weird schedule quirk, there are no bye teams this week, but there will be next week. Seems screwy to me but whatever. Also, this week will be the start of the weekly Thursday night games. As always, picks are against the spread and home teams are in CAPS.
SAN DIEGO (-7) over Oakland (Thursday night)
San Diego officially enters the second half of their season this week, which means they might start playing football again. The Raiders have a problem right now in that they aren't able to play the way they want to play right now. Early in the season they built an identity as a tough running team with a competent, but not great, QB who could make plays here or there when needed. But with McFadden injured and the Raiders now employing a pure drop-back passer, this team has lost its identity somewhat. This is not a team built to throw the ball 35 - 45 times a game, and it's got nothing to do with Carson Palmer. They don't have the O-Line, nor the wide receivers to play that style at this time. They need to get back to running the ball to have any shot at getting a leg up in the AFC West. I think they need another week or two with Palmer to get back in sync on offense.
New Orleans (-1) over ATLANTA
Saints looked much better last week after getting shell-shocked by the Rams the week before. They should be able to maintain focus against an inconsistent Atlanta team that seems to be finding its groove a bit in the last few weeks. I still think the Falcons are an up and down team and the Saints should feel right at home in the Georgia Dome.
Pittsburgh (-3) over CINCINNATI
I really want to take the Bengals here. I think they have a shot to win this game. However, this is their first true test this season. It's the biggest game of the year for them, and the Steelers know it. The Steelers also know they really need this win, as they don't want to drop two straight division games and fall potentially 2 games out. I think the more experienced Steelers team pulls away late in this one as the still very young Bengals make some late mistakes. Should the Bengals pull this one out, however, we will need to start taking them very, very seriously.
St. Louis (+3) over CLEVELAND
Not a game I enjoyed picking. Both of these teams suck, frankly. But whereas the Rams will be entering this game in pretty good shape, the Browns are a mess. The Peyton Hillis fiasco has become a real distraction, I think, and this team just has very little on offense. I'll take the Rams.
DALLAS (-5.5) over Buffalo
Taking the Toronto game against the Redskins out of the equation, the Bills have struggled on both sides of the ball the last 5 weeks. Dallas presents yet another team with an aggressive, attacking style defense, which has given the Bills trouble this season. The Bills are below average on defense, and have relied on the turnovers to keep them in, and at times win games. Last week against the Jets the score would have been far more lopsided if not for a couple of first half turnovers by the Jets. Even with those turnovers, however, the Bills were unable to get past the aggressive Jets defense. I see a similar scenario playing out in Dallas. Take the Cowboys.
INDIANAPOLIS (+3) over Jacksonville
If the Colts are going to win a game, it might have to be this one. The schedule from here on out for them is absolutely brutal: Carolina, at New England, at Baltimore, Tennessee, Houston, then finishing up on the road in Jacksonville. If the Colts don't win this game, I find it highly unlikely that they win any other. So I'm picking the Colts to win this one because I just don't think they will go 0-16.
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Denver
The Chiefs are a very similar team in makeup to the Raiders... so you would think the Broncos could perform in more or less the same way against them... except that duplicating what took place last week in Oakland will never happen. KC is a tough place to play and the Chiefs are the better team. Tebow won't have the same success running against this Chiefs defense, plus I'm guessing the Chiefs won't make the same mistake the Raiders did. They should, and probably will, play 7 or 8 in the box, bring pressure from the edge, and force Tebow to throw the ball. Which is really all you need to do to beat him.
MIAMI (-4) over Washington
(Third total dog of a game in a row. Yuck. There are some real dumpster fires on the schedule this week.)
OK, Mike Shannahan, you've lost 4 straight after starting 3-1 and then deciding to pull Rex Grossman for John Beck. You are now a 4 point underdog to a team that prior to last week had not won a single game. You are losing your team and its time for you to man up an admit you screwed this up. Royally. But you're not going to do that, so I'll pick Miami to beat your sinking ship of a team handily.
PHILADELPHIA (N/A) over Arizona
Kevin Kolb's status for this game is still up in the air as of Thursday afternoon, so there is currently no line set pending that situation. In fact it looks unlikely that he will play, so I'd expect the line on this game to land as the Eagles favored by 8 or 9. I'll still take the Eagles.
TAMPA BAY (+3) over Houston
Above I stated that it's the second half of the season, so it was time for the Chargers to start playing football. Well, conversely it's also time for the Texans to begin their annual second half downturn. The Bucs have struggled mightily this year, yet the Texans are only getting 3 on the road. That tells you what Vegas thinks of the legitimacy of Houston's "elite team" aspirations. The Texans have gotten a break with a bit of a soft schedule the last 3 weeks after a very uninspiring 3-3 start. They haven't been tested in a while, and I think this Tampa Bay team is getting a bit antsy... they are a bit better than they've been playing and I suspect they're going to open up on someone soon... I have a feeling it's the Texans this week, who will still be without Andre Johnson for another week it appears.
CAROLINA (-3.5) over Tennessee
Seems like it's been a while since we've heard much about Cam Newton, who lit the league on fire the first 4 weeks of the season. It's pretty amazing how quickly football fans have transitioned from "Whoa! Did you know that guy was THAT good?" to "Yup... Cam put up another 350 yards... pretty much what I expected". It's a little surreal. The Panthers continue to roll on offense, so this game will come down to their ability to keep the Titans from matching them score for score. I think they will. This will be a high scoring game and I like the Panthers and Cam Newton to win handily. Of course this will be the week "The Artist formerly known as Chris Johnson" wakes up and rumbles for 220 yards and three scores. It's going to happen at some point... it has to, doesn't it? Yes, I'm still bitter over drafting him in the first round.
Baltimore (-7.5) over SEATTLE
I kind of have to take the Ravens here, but man I hate picking against the Seahawks at home. Yes, they are terrible, and yes, I don't really know how they will manage to score at all against this Ravens defense considering how bad their offense is... but still... something about that stadium makes opponents very, very uncomfortable. The crowd noise is deafening, the steep walls and ship-bow-like appearance are just awe-inspiring, and I think it does get into the heads of opposing players a bit. If that team ever gets actually good they will be totally unbeatable in that stadium. So while I'm taking the Ravens here, I've seen enough bad play against marginal teams from them that I don't feel good about it at all.
Detroit (+2.5) over CHICAGO
Chicago's a better team that I've given them credit for, but they still struggle against good defensive lines. The Lions have one of the best, and I expect them to be on Cutler all night long. The Lions have been struggling of late and this will be a game they will chalk up as one they need to win to really be considered a threat in the NFC... winning on the road at Soldier Field is no small task. Ultimately I don't think the Bears have anyone that can handle Calvin Johnson, even in double coverage. I think the Lions win a close one.
SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over NY Giants
There are only 3 late afternoon games on Sunday, and two of them look to be very good. This is certainly one of them. The Giants have a habit of getting a little too complacent after big wins, and having a let down the following week. (By the way, after watching that game last week against New England I have to ask... does any team in football celebrate more effusively after every single play than the Giants? I watched a Giants linebacker dance like he'd just gotten a safety after making a tackle on an 8 yard run. It's crazy. Watch them... you'll see what I mean.) The 'Niners have the best defense you don't know about... they are relentlessly led by the frightening Patrick Willis, and I'm predicting they swallow Eli up and spit him out whole. Giants struggle to score 13 points and 'Niners win by a touchdown. Unless of course the Giants take the smart tactic and simply heave a long bomb every third play... in which case they'll likely wind up scoring 35 points off of 5 pass interference penalties on under-thrown ducks and win in a route. Yes, I'm still bitter.
New England (+1) over NY JETS
Fantasy owners be warned: You might want to think long and hard about how much you expect from Wes Welker this week. Welker torched the Jets in their first meeting and I'm guessing they will make bottling him up their first priority. I expect to see him with coverage right at the line and to get chipped not once but twice every time he releases. The Jets will make it job one to not let Welker beat them again. But in doing so will open themselves up to intermediate and long routes to other Pats receivers. I see Hernandez and Branch having big games, but also look to see some big contributions from unfamiliar faces this week... particularly Taylor Price and *gulp* Chad Ochocinco. Yeah, that's right. I said it. And I stand by it. It's gonna happen at least once for that guy this year. I think this is the week. Patriots continue to have issues in the defensive backfield, and now with Chung looking questionable, it just gets all the worse. Look for the Jets to try and air it out, at least early on in this game. If they are successful in moving the ball through the air, this game could get out of hand in a hurry for the Pats.
GREEN BAY (-13.5) over Minnesota
We've reached that point in the season where Green Bay will be a double-digit favorite in every home game they play. That's fine... it's well deserved... but I saw something in the way the Vikings defense played the Packers last time, and in the way they attacked the Green Bay defense, which is frankly not very good right now. I think the Vikings have a chance to keep it close for a good portion of this game, but ultimately the Packers just have too much fire-power and will wear the Vikings down by the end for a pretty easy win. The only way that doesn't happen is if the Packers start losing their focus a bit in a game you figure they probably expect to win. Happens to most good teams at some point in every season. Ask the Saints.
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