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| See? I told you you've lost weight. I can put my arms around you and hold a football at the same time! |
On to the ugly damage from Week 10's picks... I had been riding a high... the last two weeks I was on fire and feeling invincible... but as always eventually I, like every other person that fancies themselves an "expert" of some sort picking games, am reminded why almost no-one wins consistently gambling. It's set up for you not to.
Raiders (+7) 24, Chargers 17
And so it's time for my weekly cut-and-paste question: Why does Norv Turner still have a job as a head coach in the NFL? Is there a single team that's failed to meet expectations, year in and year out, any more than the Chargers? This team has been loaded with talent for the last 6 years, and has nothing to show for it. And now with the problems on the offensive line, we are starting to see why Phillip Rivers should never be considered one of the league's elite QBs. He's had the benefit of a great line for most of his career... he's stayed clean more often than not... but that delivery is just terrible and he telegraphs his throws, so making throws in tight windows and on the outside requires much more accuracy and arm strength, because Rivers has less time to throw and receivers have less separation. Rivers is accurate and dangerous when he has time to throw and a clear window to throw in... when those things begin to fall apart, he's below average. (about half the QBs in this league fall into the same category, for what it's worth). Phillip Rivers is a very good QB when everything is going right on offense. He's very average otherwise. For the Raiders, I was frankly impressed with how quickly they have changed their offense to suit Carson Palmer. I really didn't think they would be there for another week or two. But give them credit... they played a solid, passing style offense and played it well.
Saints (-1) 26, Falcons 23
This game was a lot closer than I thought it would be... a great game, in fact. People are really giving it to Mike Smith this week for his 4th down call in overtime. And yeah... it was pretty dumb, and fairly indefensible. Yeah, I get the argument about "if you can't get 3 inches" and "the Saints were probably gonna score no matter where they started from", blah, blah blah. Hogwash! You should always base your decisions on what gives you team the best chance to win. And going for it at a spot on the filed where the opponent doesn't have to get a single yard to kick a game winning field goal is just dumb. At the 50 yard line, sure... ok. Not at your own 29. Even if you GET it you still need to go another 40 yards for a make-able field goal. So unless you were planning on going for it on any 4th down, regardless of distance, this decision makes no sense. An unfortunate and anti-climactic end to what was otherwise a spectacular game.
Steelers (-3) 24, Bengals 17
Everyone is talking about how well the Bengals played and how they looked tough in defeat and blah, blah, blah... screw that. The Bengals had every chance to win this game, and frankly they blew it. There are no moral victories in the NFL. This was a big game against a division rival with the division at stake. You were at home... And you were right there... it was yours for the taking. And you blew it. This was the chance to make everyone take notice... to make everyone sit up and say "whoa... the Bengals are for REAL". And you played well enough to win. You just didn't. And now instead everyone is treating you like the skinny little guy in the wrestling match from the tiny rural school who's clearly overmatched. "Awww... look at the little guy TRY! He's so cute! He didn't win, and we really didn't think he would, be he tried his hardest and that's all that matters!". Is that how you really want to be seen, Bengals fans? NO! You want to be taken seriously then you need to be absolutely PISSED over losing that game, and I didn't get that feeling reading the post-game comments. They seemed to be just happy to have kept up. Feh. I guess learning how to be a winner comes later.
Rams (+3) 13, Browns 12
To be honest, I have neither the interest nor the inclination to analyze this game. It was a game between two very bad teams and the team that played less bad won. End of story.
Cowboys (-5.5) 44, Bills 7
(Don't let this little string of correct picks fool you. I'ts about to get worse. Much, much worse.)
Is any team, outside of maybe Washington, free-falling faster than the Bills? My word. It was only three weeks ago, after dispatching those same Redskins in very convincing fashion, that we were having debates about whether or not the Bills were a real threat to win the AFC East. After losing three of their last four and playing two horrendous games back to back, we're not having that debate any more. The funniest thing about it? The fact that analysts and writers are making statements about the Patriots having effectively a two game lead in the AFC East because of the sweep over the Jets... while totally forgetting the fact that they in fact only have a one game lead over the Bills, who already beat them. It's the oddest thing. The truth is, if the Bills beat the Dolphins in Miami (a pretty good chance), and the Patriots somehow manage to lose to Tyler Palco and the awful Chiefs (almost no chance), the Bills would be back in first place with a tiebreaker in hand against the Pats. So why are they being so quickly written off? Well, as is pretty much always the case these days, the over-reaction machine in today's sports media is always in full flourish. So when the Bills lay two straight absolute Marmaduke sized steaming biscuits the way they have the past two weeks, it's easy to cast them aside as a pretender... an also ran. Honestly, I'm not sure what to make of this team. I've been saying all along that in my opinion this team was better than we thought but still no better than 9-7... even after the tipped-ball, turnover and penalty assisted win over the Patriots. They are really pretty bad on defense. And if they aren't generating turnovers, they don't seem to be able to stop good offenses. They lived off the turnover for the first 6 weeks of the season. Without them, they are a very average team. The offense is dynamic, Fred Jackson is a revelation at tailback, and Fitzpatrick has the goods, as long as he's not pressured. But clearly this team struggles to move the ball against better, pressure-based defenses. Injuries along the offensive line have not helped, but still... aggressive defenses give this team fits. They really didn't play any teams that employed such defenses in the first 5 or so weeks. Since then they've played 4 of them... the Bengals, Giants, Jets and Cowboys... and lost all 4. That's not a good trend. The other thing going against the Bills is the schedule. It's not the toughest in the league, but it's nowhere near as easy as both the Jets and Patriots. Games against the Jets, Titans, Chargers and Patriots will present stiff challenges for the Bills. The one thing they will have going for them is they will once again be wearing the underdog cape... a role they seem to play better within.
Jaguars (-3) 17, Colts 3
This Colts team would absolutely get creamed by the 0-16 Lions of 2008. I really believe that. The "What the f*ck do we do with Luck" conundrum has officially commenced. There isn't another game on this schedule I see the Colts having any chance of winning. Somebody today on ESPN radio asked about the possibility of Peyton Manning getting traded to the Jets. After cogitating on that scenario for a few moments I suddenly realized I was in a slight bit of discomfort, having pissed myself a wee bit. Let's just move on... quickly.
Navy Midshipmen (+3.5) 17, Chiefs 10
Really, Chiefs? You were just beat by a team running the frikkin read-option? The same offense that has been employed by three of the four service academies for over 100 years? You knew for weeks this team was coming in, with a quarterback who can't throw... who broadcast their offensive scheme to the entire world a week ago against a somewhat excusably unprepared Raiders team... and you weren't prepared for it? Honestly... that game should have gotten Todd Haley fired on the spot. There's no excuse for not playing "big" against Tebow and the Broncos. Play a four man front, beefy, and put fast, athletic linebackers outside the edges for containment. bring the safeties up and let the CBs play man to man. This team can not beat an NFL football team if they play this way. Just watch the Broncos - Jets game Thursday night and you'll see what I mean.
Dolphins (-4) 20, Redskins 9
So Mike Shanahan finally, and very quietly, admitted he made a mistake by benching the obviously inept John Beck and re-inserting Rex Grossman into the lineup. This was still the right move, but really it's too late to have any positive effect. It should never have been made in the first place, and now you've destroyed the confidence of a player who was shaky to begin with in Grossman. The results were predictable. And the larger problem here is that I think Shannahan has lost his team. Early in the season this team was playing with energy and purpose. Then the decision to bench Grossman while sitting at 3-1 at the top of the division... I think this divided the team and effectively killed the season. Look, you knew going in what you had in Grossman. You have the same guy you had with the Bears... an average quarterback who can be mistake prone, but that you can win with and can make some throws. The Redskins should never have had any illusions about being a superbowl team, but the goal this year should have been to build some confidence and momentum on the team, to get to the point where you are a competitive team in all phases of the game, and then go out and find your franchise QB in the next year or two. That is gone now... this team is sleepwalking through games and seems fairly disinterested. It's not just the play of the quarterback that has them so far from where they were in the first four games... it's the entire will and attitude of the team. And that falls on the head coach.
Cardinals (pick) 21, Eagles 17
Ah... along with the Ravens, the Eagles are the other team everybody completely overreacted to after one good, convincing, important win and began jumping back on the "dream team" bandwagon. I said then that I didn't quite understand it... that you can't simply dismiss 4 or 5 weeks of uneven play because they managed to put together one solid game of football. Really good teams don't lose 4 straight games. The Eagles had very real problems on both sides of the ball before the big win against the Cowboys, and those problems didn't disappear in one game. And sure enough, those same problems (weak defensive line play, lack of pass rush, helter-skelter offensive style, lack of consistency in the passing game, lack of running game) are still quite evident. I said before the Eagles gave Vick that huge contract that if it were me I'd have wanted to see another year before shelling out that kind of money. Vick was largely an unkown at this point last year... teams didn't know exactly how to prepare for him. The way they attack him now is totally different from last year. He still doesn't read coverage well... he's still quick to leave the pocket... he's still inaccurate when hurried. So defenses are now bumping his receivers at the line, forcing them to take an extra second to get their routes... the O-line is terrible, so Vick is pressured almost immediately on every play. and teams blitz him from the edges, hitting him from his blind side regularly. The point is, Vick is defensible. He will still make several "wow!" plays a game, but by and large, Vick spends too much of the game scrambling, making poor reads and too many poor throws. Additionally he continues to take too many hits and continues to get injured. This was a bad investment by the Eagles. As for the Cardinals... they are faced with an interesting problem. It's very possible that Skelton is just a better quarterback than Kolb. From what I've seen it's pretty clear that that is the case. So what do you do if you're Arizona? You've made a huge investment in Kolb... how long do you let that go on before accepting that the better QB is the one on the field right now? Should be interesting to see.
Texans (-3) 37, Buccaneers 9
So this was a good news / bad news week for the Texans. They thumped a team on the road in convincing fashion, looking every bit like a top 2 seed in the AFC, and then lost their QB for the season. And now their hopes rest on the left arm of Matt Leinart. Every fan in Houston has been dreading this day... it's one of those things you worry about in training camp but then sort of let slip into the back of your consciousness until you see your franchise QB limping around with a foot swollen to the size of a prize-winning pumpkin. THat's when you suddenly realize "oh CRAP, that's right... Mat Leinart is our backup". I'm sorry, folks... this guy was given every chance to succeed in Arizona. They were desperate to make it work with him and held out hope long past the point where most teams would have cut bait. If there were any signs of him being a capable NFL starter they would have emerged then. It's not going to happen, and I strongly feel the post-season hopes of the Texans are thin at best. And Tampa Bay... wow... look, I've been saying for weeks that they were less of a disappointment and more of a team that had too much expected of it unfairly. Well... I'm beginning to revise that thought a bit. They are just not a good team right now, in any phase of the game. They have regressed badly and I'm not sure what that means for the long term prospects of this team. We'll have to see how the season plays out.
Titans (+3.5) 30, Panthers 3
Every year we see one or two rookies who are standouts in the first half of the year and then fade about 9 or 10 games in... could we be seeing Cam Newton hitting that "rookie wall"? College programs only play 10 or 11 games a year, and its been a whirlwind of a season for Cam in his rookie year, that's for sure. The NFL is no joke... it's a long, grueling season that most rookies are not prepared for come weeks 13-16. Add to that the pressure of being the no. 1 pick, with people questioning your abilities, and then slinging the ball around 40 times a game. The kid has to be wearing down some. Either way, I didn't expect this outcome, nor did I expect Chris Johnson to finally end his holdout and run the ball again. Bonus! Tennessee, much like so many other teams this year, is just so uneven, they are terribly unpredictable. They've looked like world-beaters at times this year and at others, they look just awful. Makes it awfully hard to pick games they're in.
Seahawks (+7.5) 22, Ravens 17
Dammit. This is the last time I will pick the Ravens on the road against a bad team this year, I don't care what the spread is. I had a suspicion deep down that this game may go this way... I even said as much in my picks column. I can't imagine why anyone thinks this Ravens team is a top team in the AFC. Just way too many games like this. Of course they could get to the Superbowl... the defense is certainly good enough, when it plays like it can (which it doesn't always do), and they've certainly played a few games that make you think it's possible... but there's no way I would pick them as a favorite to do so, and this last week was another example of why. The Seahawks, as I have said before, are not a very good team but are scrappy and play hard. Plus they really do have an innate advantage playing at home... that stadium is just intimidating.
Bears (-2.5) 37, Lions 13
I really expected the Bears to struggle against a very talented and aggressive Lions front four. This didn't happen and the Bears moved the ball pretty easily all night. The Lions defense, which at the beginning of the season looked ferocious and stout, has weakened considerably... the defensive backfield is just not very good right now and the Defensive linemen, the supposed strength of this team, are not getting anywhere near the type of pressure you'd expect. I'm not sure I can explain it... it's pretty much the same personnel, they are just not beating offenses to the spot as regularly as they did early in the season. It's a real concern for Lions fans, because Stafford is getting nicked up again and the offense has sputtered of late. I'm really pulling for this team... I like their attitude and the way they play, but they seem to be fading. The Bears, on the other hand, have begun to play their best ball... and the most obvious change has been with offensive coordinator Mike Martz... he's dialed down the playbook a bit, begun calling more 3 step drop passes and running the ball consistently with Matt Forte, who's having a pro-bowl year. If they can continue to play within themselves on offense and that defense continues to grow confidence, they are a real threat to be right up there with San Francisco in that tier just below the Packers. Oh, and by the way, I think at this point I'd rather simply kneel on 4th down and turn the ball over than kick it anywhere near Devin Hester. That guy is unbelievable with the ball in his hands and space to work with.
49ers (-3.5) 27, Giants 20
I finally stop the bleeding a bit with this correct pick. As any of you who read my columns regularly know, I don't think much of Chucker Eli Manning... and once again in this game he made at least 5 or 6 just horrendous throws, two of which were intercepted, two of which he got away with on PI or defensive holding calls (stop me if you've heard that one before). The second interception was the dagger... a horrible throw that Eli should never have made. Yes, Manningham stopped his route, but even had he not, there were three 49er defenders right there, one of them underneath the route. It was going to be picked either way. This led to a Touchdown on the next play and put the Giants in a 14 point hole in the 4th quarter. Even still, Eli, to his credit, did make some throws in the last two possessions to put them in a position to tie the game, but what seems to get lost game after game is that he was the one that put them in that position in the first place, where they needed to scramble against the clock and the Niners for two touchdowns just to have a shot at tying the game. Without that awful pick, the Giants have an excellent chance to win the game straight up. And this happens far too frequently with Eli. Once again this week everyone is on the "Eli is elite" bandwagon, despite doing nothing of significance except getting helped out by penalties on horrible throws in the win against the Patriots... and once again everyone is tripping over themselves this week to suckle on the Manning teet, praising him for almost bringing the Giants back instead of rightfully skewering him for making that feat necessary in the first place. And, ultimately, with the game on the line and the Giants needing 12 yards for the tying touchdown, and just 2 yards for a game extending first down, the Giants put the ball in Eli's hands for two of the last three plays (an odd running play for no gain on 3rd down was just a weird call), and he couldn't do it. So once again, Eli is lavished with praise and once again I sit here scratching my head as to why. On the Niners side, they continue to prove to everyone that they are indeed legit. They have 7 games remaining, and only two against a team with any shot to beat them (Ravens and Steelers). Driver's seat? Yeah... I think so...
Patriots (+1) 37, Jets 16
How must you feel if you're Mark Sanchez this week? In addition to playing poorly, spending a good deal of the game on your back, and losing what was the most important regular season game of your career, you are absolutely thrown under the bus by your coach, and then backed over again. Rex Ryan called Sanchez' timeout call at the end of the first half "the stupidest thing in football history". Ouch. And believe me, Rex Ryan knows a thing or two about stupidity. And then in the post-game conference, Ryan one-upped himself by telling reporters "you see the difference a great quarterback makes". Double ouch. Rex later tried to do some PR damage control, and publicly everyone is saying the right things... but everyone knows Ryan well enough to know that he has no filter between his brain and his mouth. What he says is probably what he genuinely thinks, unedited. And what he thinks is that his QB isn't "great", and is a major difference between his team and the Patriots. And that he still makes some head-scratchingly stupid decisions at the worst possible times. And he's right of course... but you don't actually say that. Not to the media... not right during or immediately after a loss. There's absolutely no way this doesn't affect Sanchez' confidence and the team in general.
Packers (-13.5) 45, Vikings 7
Yawn. I've been hearing a lot lately about how the Thanksgiving day game against the Lions will be the real chance to keep the Packers from going undefeated. Mmmm... at this point I'm not so sure. The Packers are starting to hum and the Lions are struggling lately. Not sure the Lions have the horses to run with the Pack. No... I think the team that beats the Packers will be a team with a high scoring offense and a defense that's just ok. I think the better chances to see a loss on the Packers' remaining schedule would be the Giants or Bears. I don't love the Giants, but they do have the right mix of high-powered offense and aggressive defense to give the Packers some trouble. We shall see.
This week's record: 8-8. Season: 49-38-1
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