In Washington, the John Beck experiment (hey... now there's a great name for a pop band) is failing in an epic manner. Unfortunately for 'Skins fans, Mike Shannahan being the stubborn human being he is, you are unlikely to see him change again any time soon. Admitting mistakes is not Mike's strong suit. I honestly believe the Redskins might have had a shot at the division if they'd stuck with Grossman, flawed as he is, and let the defense and running game try to carry the team to 9 or 10 wins, which should be enough to win the NFC East.
Meanwhile, in Denver the billboards are coming down and even the most ardent Tebow supporters are jumping off the "all he does is win" cart and are now falling back to much softer "he's such a great guy I really wish him well" overtures. It's easy to root for a guy you've never seen fail. It's much harder to pull for someone who flops so spectacularly after so much effort to give him a "chance" is made. Fans are fickle and they will very quickly turn on him. It will get ugly in Denver before long... you wait.
The one place the drastic change seems to be working is in Minnesota, where Christian Ponder has led his Vikings to two very good performances, one of them a win. I'm as surprised as anyone, having watched Ponder come to Florida State with much fanfare and essentially do nothing of note while there. But he seems to have a pretty good grasp of playing QB in the NFL... so good for him. I hope the kid does well.
So, on to the week 9 picks... as always, picks are against the spread and home teams are in CAPS.
NY Jets (-2) over BUFFALO
You know it's got to be just eating up Rex Ryan to be an underdog to the Bills at this point in the season. I'd love to see his response if a reporter asked him if he thought coming in to the season that he'd be an underdog to the Bills in week 9. And as impartial as I try to be when I do these picks columns, I have to admit to it making me smile just a little. That said, the Bills haven't played a defense of this caliber yet, and the one team they did play that was close (Cincinnati) handled them pretty well and kept them mostly off the board, holding the Bills to season lows in both passing and rushing. The Bills' defense is opportunistic but otherwise below average, and I expect the Jets to win a low scoring game.
DALLAS (+12) over Seattle
Yes, I know 12 is a LOT of points to give a Dallas team that appears to be coming a bit unglued, but I'm trying to look at this thing practically. I believe that Dallas, even in the state they're in, can put up 28 or more points at home against the Seahawks. So then I have to question whether or not I think Seattle can score more than 16 to cover. I honestly can't say I believe that. They are that bad on offense, and Dallas does have the makings of a pretty good defense, especially when they have a lead and can play more aggressively.
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) over Atlanta
I really don't think the Colts will go 0-for-the-season. It's pretty hard to do really, and there's a reason it's only been done once in the last 30 or so years. I still don't like the makeup of this Atlanta team and it's just the kind of team I think can go to sleep on the road and allow Indy to keep it close enough to cover this spread.
Miami (-4) over KANSAS CITY
Despite falling apart late again last week and losing to the Giants, I like a lot of what I saw from the Dolphins in the loss. They ran the ball pretty effectively, and Matt Moore made plays to keep drives going several times. Despite the Chiefs having now won 4 in a row, this line being only 4 at home against a winless team tells me Vegas isn't ready to buy in to the Chiefs yet. Me neither. I'm calling for the upset and the straight up win for the Dolphins this week.
NEW ORLEANS (+8.5) over Tampa Bay
I said earlier this week that I chalk the Saints loss to the Rams up to a couple of fluky factors not necessarily related to how good or bad the Saints are as a whole. This is still the second best team in the NFC in my opinion (sorry, Niners... you're not quite there yet... almost, but not quite). I think this game will fall into another classic category: "The Game after 'The Wake Up Call Game'". This is the game where a good team usually steamrolls an opponent at home after an embarrassing road loss. The struggling Bucs are unfortunately in the path of what I think is going to be a flying locomotive. Good luck.
San Francisco (+4) over WASHINGTON
This is going to sound a little weird, given how much I generally enjoy bashing Rex Grossman, but if Grossman had not been benched a couple of weeks ago and was starting this game, I might be tempted to take the 'Skins in this one. But as it is, the second worst starting QB in the NFL is taking the field this week against a pretty tough, aggressive Niners defense. When's the last time the Redskins have been shut out in back to back games? Do yourself a favor and look that one up so you can astound and amaze your friends when it becomes a real possibility midway through the fourth quarter of this game and YOU know the answer. You'll thank me later.
HOUSTON (+11) over Cleveland
The Browns are falling apart fast... and they weren't that good to begin with. Fantasy team crusher Peyton Hillis may play again this week but is likely to be limited, and backup Montario Hardesty is out with a calf injury, leaving the Browns with Chris Ogbonnaya as their only healthy option at RB. Maybe I made that name up, maybe I didn't... but I bet you don't know for sure, do you? Yup... that's what I thought. So, yeah... the Browns are in trouble.
Cincinnati (-3) over TENNESSEE
This might be the game of the week (who knew?). I'm not sure I understand the thinking that the Titans are a pick 'em game over the Bengals (which is what the 3 point line at home would indicate)... seems to me that the last 4 weeks, the Bengals have been the more consistent, reliable team on BOTH sides of the ball. Seems like an easy pick to me, but hey, what do I know?
OAKLAND (+7) over The Slowly Dying Embers of the Tebow Era
Honestly, unless you think the Broncos are playing a team they can hold under 17 points, you can't really take them at any line lower than 10, can you? The Raiders will give the Broncos a steady dose of Run DMc, and while I still think he's not worth what the Raiders gave up to get him (not remotely close to it in fact), I feel like Carson Palmer will be much better this week. Enough to beat the Broncos by more than a touchdown, anyhow.
NY Giants (-9) over NEW ENGLAND
Some might be tempted to lump the Patriots in to the same category as the Saints... you know, a home game after an embarrassing "Wakeup Game" loss on the road, resulting in a decisive victory where everyone seems much more focused and intense. But there are several key differences between the Patriots' loss last week and the Saints': 1. The Rams were a bona-fide "bad team" and the Saints likely looked past them. There's no way that happened with the Pats. 2. The Rams didn't have any particular phase of their game absolutely exposed like they had been pantsed in a middle school hallway between classes. 3. The Saints aren't drawing a team that is actually pretty good against the previously exposed area this week... that Patriots are. So taking all that into account, I think the Patriots win this game at home in a shootout, but it will be closer than 9 points, I'm afraid. However I'd be THRILLED to put this one in red when I do my accounting column next week.
ARIZONA (+3) over St. Louis
I flipped a coin for this one. Seriously. Literally. I just took a Montana quarter out of my pocket and flipped it. I have no idea how to pick this game. The Rams' win over the Saints was a fluke. The Cardinals outplayed the Ravens for 3+ quarters before falling apart. I honestly have no frikkin clue here. So, ya know... coin flip.
Green Bay (+5.5) over SAN DIEGO
The ESPN page I use to draw the lines from has this one listed as opening with Green Bay as a 5.5 point UNDERDOG, according to betting site bodog.eu. Seriously. So I'm assuming it's a misprint and going instead with the 5dimes.com line of GB as 5.5 point FAVORITES, which seems to be more in line with the rest of Vegas. And in truth, I'm not sure I'd take the Chargers at twice that number. The way they lost the game last week is going to have serious long-lasting repercussions, I think. How can it not? How can you lose like that and expect to stay within a touchdown of a team the caliber of the Packers? I just don't see it.
PITTSBURGH (+3) over Baltimore
You all saw what happens to the Ravens when they play a team with any semblance of a good defense, right? Hell, they were held at bay for 3+ quarters by one of the worst defenses in the NFL last week. The Steelers are a different team at home than on the road. They play with more energy and fire. And I know they remember the beating the Ravens laid on them in week 1. I like the Steelers to win this won without there ever being much doubt about the outcome.
PHILADELPHIA (-8) over Chicago
These teams are a lot closer than 8 points... but the game is in Philly, and the Bears are coming off the dreaded bye week, which has been murder for most teams this year. The Eagles are riding a high of confidence right now... but the one thing about this team is that they are very fragile. It won't take a lot to shake the very foundation of that confidence... one pick six and a couple of sacks of Vick would probably do it... so keep an eye out for that. But barring that, I like Philly to win big.
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