Wednesday, November 2, 2011

NFL: Week 8 accounting

It was Halloween weekend in the NFL and some downright eerie things took place... and as a result I'm left with some pretty nagging questions. Like, how the HELL are the Chiefs in a tie for first place at this point? Is the rest of the NFC West really just that bad? And, how does Norv Turner still have a job in the NFL? Haven't we seen this exact same movie from him for like the last 4 seasons?  When will Chris Johnson end his holdout? Did the Steelers just convert another 3rd and long? How many times has Kyle Orton muttered the words "you're kidding me, right?" over the last 2 weeks? Could the 49ers actually lose every game the rest of the season and still win the NFC West by 2 games? Does beating the snot out of the Cowboys and Romo-coaster at home really wash away the stank of absolutely sucking for 5 or 6 straight weeks?

We may never know the answers to these and other pressing questions, but we do know the outcome of the games this weekend, and so with that, let's have a look at the damage from my picks column last week: 

Titans (+9) 24, Colts 10
Really no surprise here, to be honest. This was almost a gimme. But I want to spend a little time here talking about one of the developing story lines in the NFL the past few weeks. It's becoming more and more clear how much of a trainwreck the Colts are, and the reality of being the worst team in the NFL and having the top pick in the draft is starting to sink in. So the conversation has started to emerge about what the Colts should do... do you draft Andrew Luck and groom him to be the next star when Peyton, who's future in the NFL is honestly a bit of a question mark, sails off into the sunset of goofy commercial spots and awkward sitcom appearances? Or do you trade the rights to the top pick for a king's ransom in picks and add some young talent to put around Peyton Manning and have a shot at another title in the remaining 5 or so years he might have left? I've tossed this one around in my head and honestly, if I were the "President of the Colts", I would take an altogether different, and probably fairly unpopular, route... but I think in the end the best move for the long term success of the franchise. I would wait for the Dr's to clear Manning to play... and then I would approach Miami or Denver and offer them Peyton Manning for 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds. And I bet you'd get it. 

Look, I know fans in Indianapolis would go apoplectic over even the thought of such heresy, but think it through... Andrew Luck is the real deal. He's not Akili Smith or Matt Leinart or any of the other top pick QB busts that had great college careers but had some basic "football essentials" questions coming in to the draft. This guy is going to be a star in this league for the next 10 - 15 years, barring injury. You draft him and put a decent team around him and you are going to be set for a decade, just like the Colts have been since drafting Manning... he's the best QB to come out since Manning... there's no debate over this. So that leaves the Colts with three possible choices: Draft Luck and keep Manning, Trade Luck and build up the team around Manning, or draft Luck and trade Manning. Personally I think drafting Luck and keeping both he and Manning would be irresponsible and would have lasting, catastrophic consequences. Outside of Manning, this team is bad. Very bad. Historically bad. If you keep Luck and Manning, and Manning gets injured again midway through the year and his career is done, now you have yourself an potential franchise quarterback on a very bad team that will take years to build up over several drafts. That could have serious negative repercussions for a developing Andrew Luck. If you trade Luck and get a few top-end pieces to put around Manning, it's still a roll of the dice regarding how long Manning will be able to play and to what level. Those pieces will take a couple of seasons to develop, likely. I know I keep hearing analysts claim that with Manning this Colts team is a playoff team. No. Sorry. I'm not buying that. They have been in decline for a few seasons now and even with Manning I think this is a 6 or 7 win team tops. But if you trade Manning, I think you could still get at least two first rounders for him right now. Plus a couple of mid-round picks. You take Luck, and build around him with high draft picks the way the Cowboys did in the late 80's after the Herschel Walker trade. You probably set up the franchise for another decade. This is the right way to go, in my opinion. Having said all that, there's no chance it happens. Polian is loyal to Manning and Peyton essentially built their new state of the art stadium and facilities.

Rams (-14) 31, Saints 21
Right... like you knew this was coming. Not sure what to make of this game... I watched it with some interest on one of the smaller screens at the local Buffalo Wild Wings, where it is often tough to get a sense for the way a game is going. If you're not there to watch your team, Wild Wings is like paradise for the short-attention-span afflicted like myself. I can literally watch 5 games at once if I place my head just right, plus answer trivia questions in my head... It's a lot to process and by the time I leave that place I feel a little drunk, whether I've had any beer or not. Anyhow, as I said I'm not sure what to make of the Saints losing so convincingly to a winless team playing their backup QB. It's not a good thing for certain, but I can't point to any single reason why they lost the way they did. I'm going to chalk it up to a combination of simple "hangover after a blowout win", and "good team that comes into a bad team's stadium having already chalked up the win, so they forget to actually, ya know, play like they want to win". Deadly combination and I think the Saints fell victim to both. We'll see next week against a tough but struggling Tampa team in a division game... they should be better able to get up for that one especially after such an embarrassing loss.

Giants (+10) 20, Dolphins 17
Man, did I call this one right. The Giants are becoming so predictable. Play well against good teams, struggle against poor teams. When a team plays like that it's mainly for one reason: focus... or lack thereof. The problem with that is that eventually it wears on you, and those tough games against teams you should handle easily will have an effect eventually in a game against a good team, and before you know it you find yourself getting blown out. And that assessment has almost nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that the Giants come in to Foxborough to play the Patriots this weekend. Really. I swear.

Vikings (-3.5) 24, Panthers 21
One of the things I struggle to remember while getting caught up in my Cam Newton bromance is that the Panthers are actually a pretty bad team outside of Newton and Steve Smith. It's easy to forget the reason they were able to draft Newton when watching the offense operate. But at the end of the day, they still have a ton of holes and will lose a lot more than they win, at least this year. On the Viking's side, I'll give you a crisp $100 bill if you can prove that you were one of the 2 people in the country that had any idea Christian Ponder would look as good as he has in his first two games (the very next time I am in possession of a crisp $100 bill I don't have any other use for).
Oh, one last note on Newton... you know damn well that the creators of Madden 2013 will be throwing boatloads of cash to have him adorn the cover of their top selling video game... and frankly, if I'm Cam Newton, EA Sports doesn't have enough money to make it worth it. Right Peyton Hillis?

Ravens (+13) 30, Cardinals 27
Along with the Giants game, this was the other game I nailed right on the head. I still have no idea what to think about this Ravens team... For 6 quarters Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense looked like they couldn't score on Central Michigan University. Then in the second half of this game they became unstoppable. Meanwhile, the defense that was being touted as the best in the league gave up 27 points (ok, 7 came on a punt return... but still) to an offensively challenged Cardinals team. In Baltimore. This team could go to the superbowl or finish 9-7. Neither would surprise me at this point.

Texans (+10) 24, Jaguars 14
I get a push here... once again Jacksonville plays in a game no-one is talking about, that no-one cares about, and no-one really remembers. In an effort to try and be fair, I do try and at least watch the "fast replay" of most games before I assess them... but I just can't be bothered with any game this team plays in. They are just utterly uninteresting. I'm bored already writing this paragraph, as I'm sure you now are... so... moving on...

Bills (+6) 23, Redskins 0
When you get shut out as a football team within a couple of weeks of changing your QB... especially on a team that had some pretty decent games early in the season, don't you really have to sit down and consider the wisdom of that decision? Mike Shannahan strikes me as one of those guys that rarely ever questions the wisdom of anything he ever says or does, however. So... you know... probably not going to happen in this case. Shannahan over-reacts like no other coach in football and has done so for years. We all make jokes about Rex Grossman, and no you're not going to probably win a superbowl with him (although if you have an all-time great defense you almost could... right Bears fans? But just almost. Ouch. Yeah... sorry for that.), but he's a veteran QB that has won games in this league, and you were only a game or two out in a very winnable division and playing pretty good football early on. Despite what I might think of Grossman, the decision to bench him was premature and reactionary... especially considering the resume of the replacement, John Beck. What's this guy ever done except get cut from a team that had less at QB than the Redskins do? But now Shannahan is stuck... he made the call too soon and now he's going to have to live with it at least for a few more terrible performances. Season over, 'Skins fans. Sorry. Not much to say about the Bills that I didn't expect. Nice win. Well played and not as close as the score. And it was very nice of the NFL to schedule a fairly weak team for the Bills to play in a "home" game. That stadium had all the excitement of a large mall on a Sunday afternoon. I can't believe the Bills still agree to give up an actual home game to do this every year. Does Roger Goodell have some real dirt on Bills' ownership? I'd be outraged were I a season ticket holder, and the Bills are lucky they didn't draw a top team... because for all intents and purposes, that "home" game is a neutral field.

Lions (+3) 45, Team Tebow 10
I have to think Vegas took an enormous bath on this one. No-one who understands football and actually gambles on games regularly could possibly have passed up laying big money on this line. I still don't understand it. As far as the game itself... I think I actually could pinpoint the spot somewhere in the 2nd quarter when the entire stadium at Mile High collectively looked at one another and said, in unison, "Ooooohhhh... THAT'S what everyone was talking about."  And I'm not sure... but I think I actually heard Lions defenders giggling at multiple points during the game. Or maybe that was John Fox. Either way, what do you do if you're Kyle Orton or Brady Quinn at this point? You have to be just laughing and shaking your head in disbelief if you're either of those guys, right? And for the Broncos, now that you continue to play this complete incompetent despite clear evidence that he's simply not anything close to an NFL quarterback, you've lost any chance at resigning either of those two, who are both free agents at the end of the year, right? I mean how can you expect either of those guys to want to come back after being benched and / or passed over for this abomination? I fear the Broncos are truly screwed unless they hit the jackpot in the draft with whoever the second best QB is... because they've already screwed up the Andrew Luck sweepstakes by not starting Tebow from Game 1.

Steelers (-3) 25, Patriots 17
I've already said pretty much everything I could say about this game in my previous column. The only thing I'll add is that this has quickly become the classic "over-reaction" game amongst media and fans alike. Suddenly after one (admittedly convincing) win at home they are now everyone's AFC favorite? This is the same team that was throttled by the Ravens, put up a mere 10 points in a loss to the Texans, struggled to barely beat the Jaguars at home, and spent all day in the Pats' red zone and only came away with 23 points (2 came on the bogus safety at the end of the game). I'm not ready to crown these guys as the AFC front-runners yet. They have tough games coming up against Baltimore and Cincy, and the tough 49ers down the road. In fact, they may not even be the best team in their own division. And conversely the Pats laid an absolute egg. A total stinker on the road. But as with Pittsburgh, I'll assess them based on the total body of evidence, not the one game. And just as the Steelers' issues that existed before the game did not suddenly vanish after it, the Patriots successes over the first 7 weeks are not suddenly meaningless after that game. Overreaction is a common and almost necessary byproduct of the NFL, with only one game a week and just 16 in a season, but I've always tried to avoid it.

49ers (+9) 20, Browns 10
I thought 9 was a little too much to give in this game... and in truth I still think it was. The Niners do just enough to win, and aren't terribly weak in any particular phase of their game. Most surprising team of the season for me. I still think they will struggle against premier defenses down the road... they struggled putting up 20 against a pretty weak Browns' defense. I though the Browns would have enough to put up at least 13, but with Madden Curse Victim #206 Peyton Hillis still not healthy they really have very little in the way of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Bill Simmons made the comment in a recent article that Colt McCoy is really a backup QB with a cool name. I hadn't really considered that before, but I think he's right. Watching him play I put his ability in the same category with AJ Feely, Charlie Whitehurst, and maybe a step below Matt Moore. Honestly, I can't make a case that he's much better than any of those QBs.

Bengals (+3) 34, Seahawks 12
OK, everyone take a deeeeeep breath and repeat after me... I know, I know, it seems very unnatural and it might take a few attempts to get it all out without stumbling over it... it's a little like learning Swahili, but come on... give it a shot... ready? OK... The Cincinnati Bengals are for real. There. Now... get used to saying it... because, ladies and gentlemen, the Cincinnati Bengals are for real. They play pretty solid defense. The Red Rifle (now my favorite QB nickname in all of sports) is a bona-fide, top notch NFL QB... and not because he can throw the heck out of the ball, or can run like the wind... but because he has the same set of innate skills that allowed Tom Brady to elevate his (not very highly regarded at the time) skillset into a first-ballot hall-of-fame career: he masters the pocket. He knows where the pressure is coming from, has very good footwork in the pocket for a rookie and anticipates his receivers well. He can read a defense and puts the ball in the best spot for his receivers to make plays. He won't wow you with arm strength or speed, but the man knows how to play quarterback at the NFL level. Color me a believer.  Oh... and by the way, note to the NY Giants: this is how you beat a weaker team that you should beat on the road. Take notes. You'll be required to do it at some point.

Eagles (+3.5) 34, Cowboys 7
And to quote an oft-used phrase, it wasn't even that close. I said in my picks column that I just didn't like the way the Cowboys played in that New England game. Even in nearly winning the game, their offense looked out of sync... it really just doesn't look like the receivers are on the same page with Romo. And more and more I'm becoming convinced that Romo is really just a scrambling playmaker, but not a very intelligent or savvy quarterback. He's sort of like Tebow only with some semblance of an NFL caliber arm. He'll scramble out of trouble, and find open receivers on broken coverages after the play is extended, and we'll all ooooooh and aaaaahhhh and say 'what a great playmaker'. But when forced to play in the pocket against a good zone defense (the Eagles did this... they didn't rush up the middle, they rushed from the edges and kept him contained to the pocket whenever possible), he doesn't seem to know what's going on in front of him and relies on his strong arm and athleticism... which will only work in certain situations against certain defenses. That was a little easier to do a few years back when the Cowboys had a punishing ground game that forced defenses to play 6 in the box and man-to-man coverage. Romo didn't have to read defenses as much. But now without much of a running game (ignore the fluke game by Murray) defenses are playing 3 and 4 man fronts and deploying zone defenses against Dallas, and Romo is struggling to decipher them. This will continue until Romo-coaster somehow learns to read defenses better (unlikely... it would have happened by now) or the Cowboys just realize it and go another direction.

Chiefs (-4) 23, Chargers 20
Move over Joe Pisarcak... there's a new sheriff in town. Honestly, only the Chargers could have lost this game, in this way. Has a team ever kicked a field goal on first down, with time on the clock, that wasn't in overtime? Because I think that might happen should the Chargers find themselves in the same situation again. Although knowing this team that would probably only end up in a botched snap returned by the opponent for a touchdown. No team in the last 3 or 4 years has had more mental lapses and flat out fundamental breakdowns leading to more ignominious losses than this Chargers team. And so I must ask again, in what has become a recurring question for me at this point (in fact I've already asked it once before in this very column), how in the heck does Norv Turner still have a job as an NFL coach? This is a real mystery to me.

You stay crappy, San Diego.

This week's record: 7-5-1  Season: 31-26-1

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