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| Bet you didn't know Phillip Rivers gave throwing pointers to John Gries for his role as 'Uncle Rico' in Napoleon Dynamite. Now you know. |
I did get some things wrong this week... The Patriots hid their atrocious secondary well for 3 quarters, but eventually the lack of skill and depth is going to bite them... so they're going to need those 30 points a game they used to score. The offense has gotten predictable so that's not happening right now... and if something doesn't change here drastically that team is in real trouble. The Eagles suckered me into thinking they might have turned a corner, and I forgot how bad they have played against competent defenses for the most part this year, and how bad their defense has looked against competent offenses. I won't make that mistake again. And if you let Tim Tebow the running back play, instead of Tim Tebow the quarterback, he's just talented enough to beat you. The Raiders apparently didn't get the memo that he's a much better runner than QB. Oops.
But I got a lot more right than I did wrong, so let's get to it:
Jets (-2) 27, Bills 11
I was driving back from Boston on Sunday afternoon and had this game on for the better part of the five and a half hour drive. It's usually hard to get a feel for the way a game is going on the radio. In this day of high-definition TV, radio announcers aren't as well trained to tell the "story" of a game the way they were 30 years ago or more... but even over the radio, it was easy to tell how badly the Bills were dominated in this game. The final score doesn't tell half the story here, as the Bills did almost nothing on offense. I know the Bills were due to come down a bit from where they had been, but they were really humiliated at home... perhaps in part due to a "hangover" effect from their own dominating performance last week in Toronto. They get another big test next week in Big D, the first of three straight road games... the Bills have benefited somewhat from a light schedule with 5 home games already, but haven't beaten a good team on the road yet. November will tell us a great deal more about what this Bills team really is. I predict they lose 2 of their next 3 and finish November at 6-5 with an uphill climb in the division.
Cowboys (+12) 23, Seahawks 13
Dammit. I knew 12 points was too much to give. The Seahawks, despite being really talent deficient, are actually pretty scrappy if you watch them play. I was right about Seattle's ability to put up 16 points or more... I didn't think they could, and they didn't... but I really thought Romo and the Cowboys could muster 28 or more. C'est la vie.
Falcons (+7.5) 31, Colts 7
Seriously... could anyone have predicted the Colts would be this bad without Peyton? And are NFL analysts going to continue to insist that this team could win 10 games with Peyton? There's just no way... i don't believe it... even the NFL version of Steve Nebraska couldn't win 10 games with this Colts team. They are just that bad, in all phases of the game. And it's time they started seriously... I mean very seriously, figuring out the "Andrew Luck" conundrum in a hurry, since it looks very much like they will have the inside track on the sure-fire no. 1 pick QB out of Stanford, because...
Dolphins (-4) 31, Chiefs 3
This game made me happy on so many levels... first, I never thought the Chiefs were "back"... I thought they won a couple of games against bad teams and then got a gift from the Chargers... literally. Second, I predicted the win... something not many did. Third, the last thing I want to see happen is Andrew Luck throwing darts for the Miami Dolphins for the next 15 years. As a Patriots fan that thought makes me very twitchy (although the thought of the Colts winding up with him doesn't fill me with unbridled glee, either). And lastly, it seems to me that lately Patriots fans have gotten really sour on Bill Belichick... beginning to question his ability to build AND coach a team... and I really want people to remember and realize exactly what was accomplished in that 2008 season. Matt Cassel is simply not an NFL starting quarterback. Not remotely. What this team managed in winning 11 games that year, playoffs or not, was nothing short or remarkable. You hear that Bill Polian? So... a 31-3 thrashing at home, at the hands of one of the worst teams in football, should serve as a reminder to this point... but somehow I'm betting that will be lost on most Pats fans. And if you're the Chiefs... wow. There are losses, and then there are losses. How do you go forward as a team and coaching staff after getting embarrassed, on your home field, by a winless team, without scoring even a single touchdown? I wouldn't want to be a Chiefs player this week. I wasn't buying them before this game... now you know why.
Saints (+8.5) 27, Buccaneers 16
Welcome back, New Orleans Saints... I knew you'd only just stepped out for a minute. As for the Buccaneers, this is pretty much who they are at this point: a young, middle of the road team who will beat the lesser teams in the league but have a tough time against the better teams. They are still an up-and-comer, I believe, and I think this tough season for Josh Freeman will end up benefiting him in the long run. The kid needs to learn to deal with adversity, and he's getting plenty of lessons this season.
49ers (+4) 19, Redskins 11
I said in my column earlier this week that the 'Niners were one of the two elite teams in football. Now, this game is hardly the proof of that, but still, the 'Niners did what elite teams do... go on the road and win. The 'Niners have had a brutal cross-country schedule this year and have done extraordinarily well. Every week I'm buying into this team more and more. For the Redskins, the John Beck experiment continues to be an abject failure, and the 'Skins downward spiral continues. Time will tell how long the stubborn Mike Shannahan will continue on with this terrible decision, or how long Daniel Snyder will put up with the embarrassment.
Texans (+11) 30, Browns 12
The Browns have some serious, serious issues to address in the offseason. There are problems all across this team, starting with the offense. Peyton Hillis has been an absolute disaster this year, between the injuries and the petty contract squabbling and public squawking that has alienated him with his teammates. Additionally, the quarterback situation is a problem. Colt McCoy, I think it's pretty clear, is not the long term answer here. I think the Browns may actually have to consider blowing this whole thing up, again, in the offseason and starting over. They have some pieces to work with on defense, but the offense needs a complete overhaul, from the top down... I think it's going to be tough for Hillis to return at this point... I think he gets his next contract elsewhere... I hope he's learned a lesson or two about how to conduct yourself as a pro with a contract issue. And please, I beg you, please let Josh Cribbs go to a contender where he can finally get some credit and display his value. I think he's got a chance to be a real star on a good team. On this Browns' team he will never reach that potential. Not much to say about the Texans... they won a game they should have won... didn't do much of note. Schaub had pretty pedestrian numbers and the defense carried the day for the most part. I'm still not sure what I think of this team as a contender.
Bengals (-3) 24, Titans 17
This seemed like an easy pick to me and I wound up being right. The Titans are a team without an offensive identity right now. They are a running team that should be able to run but can't, with a pure drop-back passer QB who doesn't have any weapons to throw to. I think their slide is likely to continue. Meanwhile, early on it looked like Chris Johnson might break out of his funk... but faded in a hurry down the stretch and by the 4th quarter was completely invisible. Might be time to cut bait with him on my fantasy team. Dammit. The Bengals looked good again, beating another decent team with balanced and disciplined play. I continue to like the way this team looks.
The somewhat revived Embers of the Tim Tebow Era (-7) 38, Raiders 24
This is the only way a Tim Tebow team will win a football game against a halfway decent opponent: run for over 300 yards, don't put the game on Tebow's arm, and oh yeah, have a punt return for a touchdown and turn the other team over 3 times. Tebow the runner is much better than Tebow the passer. The Raiders are still trying to re-invent themselves under Carson Palmer and so far the results look eerily similar to the Carson Palmer that last played for the Bengals: lots of yards on lots of attempts, but too many interceptions and not enough drives finished off. We'll see if this improves, but I have an inkling this is just who he is. As for Tebow and the Broncos, yes, this was a big win, and a good performance for Tebow the runner. But he still throws the ugliest ball in football, and how many times do you really think this particular formula will work in the NFL? And why the hell would the Raiders not do exactly what every other team knows to do... play 8 in the box and MAKE Tebow throw the ball? Why give him the opportunity to run at all? At any rate, this is a formula that can't possibly be sustained at the NFL level, but if this is how the Broncos are truly planning to win games going forward, then I wish all you Broncos fans luck watching your next two or three 5-11 seasons.
NY Giants (-9) 24, Patriots 20
I got this one right. That's all I have to say about that.
Cardinals (+3) 19, Rams 13
Thank you, lucky coin!
Packers (+5.5) 45, Chargers 38
It's really too bad the NFL scheduled this game and the Patriots - Giants tilt at the same time. These were both tremendous games, especially the second halves, and it's a shame fans had to choose. This game really was there for the taking for the Chargers. Phillip Rivers throws more pick-6's than pretty much any QB in football... and I'm sorry, I really think it's very much in part due to that funky, push-throw delivery he has. It's not quick and it gives away where he wants to throw the ball. On longer passes it's not as much of an issue, but on those out-routes to the flat you really need to have a quick, fluid delivery or you risk what you see happening to Rivers all to often - CB's making a read and jumping the route. Rivers has great accuracy and is a good QB, but he will do this too often. It ultimately cost them a chance at winning this game. The Packers continue to play video game offense, but the defense continues to stink on ice, giving up a whopping 460 yards to the Chargers. I really think at some point it's going to cost them. Probably not in the next two weeks with the Vikings and Bucs on the slate, but watch out for that Thanksgiving day game against the Lions.
Ravens (-3) 23, Steelers 20
Tough loss for the Steelers after the big win against New England. You really had to like the way they were playing much more than the Ravens coming in to this game, but the Ravens did what they do on defense, and Flacco had a nice game and threw the last second TD that won the game for the Ravens. This Ravens team is still too schizophrenic for me to consider them one of the best teams in the AFC, but the defense sure keeps playing well... so they will have a chance in every game they play. The Steelers need to figure out who they are offensively... the game against New England showed some proficiency in the passing game, but I don't think that's who they want to try and be.... it doesn't work as well when you play a pass defense that isn't... well, the Patriots.
Bears (+8) 30, Eagles 24
I got this one right in that the Eagles covered the 8 point spread, but I really did think they would win the game outright. I haven't given the Bears much credit this season... mainly because I have a very strong dislike for their quarterback. This isn't really fair of course, and if I evaluate the Bears fairly, their three losses have come against 3 of the 4 best teams in the NFC in the Saints, Packers and Lions... and two of those losses were on the road. They're actually a pretty good team at this point.
And as an aside to this point, here's something interesting for you Patriots fans to watch happen and think about. Listen to sports talk this week nationally, and NFL shows and analysts. And listen to the difference when talking about the Bears and Patriots. Here are two teams with identical records. Both teams have had all their losses come against good playoff teams, both have lost two on the road and one at home. Both have had consistency issues with some aspects of their team... both have looked good at times and bad at others. These are both very good teams, but only ONE of them is being discussed as such this week. I heard it coming in to work this morning on the Mike and Mike show... talking about how good the Bears really are and don't really get enough credit. And in the next segment the discussion turned to whether on not the Patriots were "done". It's unreal... the only real difference between these teams at this point is expectation. The Pats have a world of expectation, the Bears have very little. Thus the perception of two nearly identical teams is somehow completely skewed. It's a strange phenomenon to me, and makes for an interesting study in sports media / sports fan psychology.
This week's record: 10-4. Season: 41-30-1
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